Chris Quin

@profesterman @J__Doh @Mike_Honey_ Interested to know what data youre using to track cases please Prof? Hard to assess relative risk since the national aged care data stopped

@J__Doh @Mike_Honey_ Low at the moment, but rising rapidly

With a new wave of COVID starting in Australia, this is what the current circulating subvariants look like. Chart courtesy of @Mike_Honey_ who does a fantastic job.

⛈️showers and storms likely with possible heavy rain in north #Queensland today as a tropical low develops in the Coral Sea 🌦️Possible showers elsewhere near the coast 🌤️Otherwise dry and sunny Numerous warnings in the north More: bom.gov.au/location/austr…

@Mike_Honey_ You too @Mike_Honey_, wishing you a safe and peaceful 2026.

@ResProjects Thanks Chris! All the best for 2026

Here's my "2025 - Year in Review". I'm really looking forward to 2026! My New Years Resolution: make more folders. youtube.com/watch?v=ctTQBX…

@Mike_Honey_ This is extremely useful @Mike_Honey_ . As always, thanks for your stellar work. And I do hope you get a break and have a safe and happy Christmas

For interactivity, you can use the slicer control on the right to filter the lists of variants “Virus …” and/or vaccines. This can give a cleaner view of a particular scenario. For example, here I focused on the Pfizer LP.8.1 vaccine that is being distributed in Australia. 🧵

A recent scientific paper included an antigenic map, comparing the immune status of individuals vaccinated with a range of vaccines "… vaccinated sera", against a collection of significant variants "Virus …". The map was very informative, so I built a quick dataviz project. 🧵

@Mike_Honey_ As always @Mike_Honey thanks for all you do. Literally the most concise and easily understood source of covid risk information on the internet. Thoughts on why we have this low, with the caveat that it's complicated? Thanks Chris

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update: The risk estimate fell again, to 0.1% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-1,625. That implies a 2% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

@aparachick @DALupton @ToshiAkima Yep got some of these, thanks to co2 radical. I find the white Auras fit me better, but don't look as good.

@DALupton Thanks will give them a trial. They look really good.

@DALupton @aparachick @ToshiAkima I do earloops in large indoor hvac spaces, but headstraps in higher risk such as planes. I think everyone has a different risk profile, but I do admit that headstraps are generally much better protection according to the science.

@DALupton Mask make and model please Prof?

@1goodtern That's not weird, that's audience awareness. Brilliant. Do you have thoughts on adults? I run business workshops in black respirators, I think it looks a bit more professional in a corporate environment. Thoughts?

I know this is going to sound weird. For schools work, I now wear a white respirator when working with under 9s, and black with 10s and up.

@Mike_Honey_ Yes, nimbus vs Stratus. That makes sense, thanks very much @Mike_Honey

@ResProjects The difference between Nimbus and Stratus has not been enough to overcome that protection. Time passes and the protection from Nimbus wanes while Stratus evolves further. If nothing else comes along, then eventually Stratus could spark waves in the Nimbus countries. /2

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to late September. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued to dominate, but fell back to 82% frequency. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" grew to 12%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #LP_8_1 #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus 🧵

@Mike_Honey_ @1goodtern Thanks @Mike_Honey_, unsurprising!

@ResProjects @1goodtern None that I could find. There a few vague references in PDF reports, it sounds like ACARA might be holding it. The dismal routine. NZ streets ahead as usual on actual data transparency, they even have a daily dashboard.

😮 This is just stunning. *Authorised* illness absence: still 37% up in Primary Schools still 50% up in Secondary Schools and 🚨 an astonishing 74% up in Schools for Children with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities. The most vulnerable children, the children most in need of protection from infectious disease, and our government is just throwing them under the bus. 🤬

@Mike_Honey_ @1goodtern @Mike_Honey_ , is there similar data for Queensland or Australia showing same trend? Thanks

@1goodtern NZ schools are reporting a similar pattern. Here's the % of time absent for illness/medical (rolling 4-term/1-year avg), with a baseline of 2019-2022: 4.3%. Out to 2025 Term 2, it is still running at 5.7%, so 33% higher than pre-let-it-rip. Data from: educationcounts.govt.nz/statistics/att…

@Mike_Honey_ Thank you @Mike_Honey_ as always for this important work

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update: The risk estimate resumed falling, down to 0.4% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-237. That implies a 12% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30. #COVID19 #Australia 🧵

@Mike_Honey_ Thanks @Mike_Honey, always terrific data. Based on the data you've reviewed for other countries, any predictions on when/if Austraia gets a Stratus wave? Obviously i understand prediction is ridiculously hard. Just after an opinion.

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early July. The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant has continued to dominate, rebounding to 71%. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant is the likely next challenger, but only at 10%. #COVID19 #Australia #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

@aparachick @Mike_Honey_ I'm no expert, but decided to get jn1 booster recently because they are both descended from it. Not sure that anything available in Australia truly covers them. gavi.org/vaccineswork/e…

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to early July. The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant has continued to dominate, but the frequency fell to 63%. The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew to 11%. #COVID19 #Australia #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus 🧵

@Mike_Honey_ @Mike_Honey_, do you think this might be a bellwether for Australia, due to Singapore's place in our international transit system? Has Singapore provided this type of lead indicator previously?

Interactive World covid stats dataviz, code, acknowledgements and more info here: github.com/Mike-Honey/cov… 🧵 ends

Here's the latest SARS-CoV-2 variant picture for Singapore. After a wave driven by NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus", the XFG.* "Stratus" variant is taking over dominance quite quickly. This is the first country where I’ve noticed this pattern. #COVID19 #Singapore #XFG #Stratus #Nimbus 🧵

@Mike_Honey_ Very insightful and useful, thank you very much @Mike

Interactive World covid stats dataviz, code, acknowledgements and more info here: github.com/Mike-Honey/cov… 🧵 ends

Interesting to compare this analysis of longevity in the UK to "Excess Deaths". Their 2024 model resulted in a small +ve change in predicted longevity, relative to their model at the end of 2023. liferisk.news/nuanced-impact… 🧵