Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology

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Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology

Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology

@profesterman

Epidemiologist & biostatistician | Prof @ Adelaide University Ex-WHO Explains outbreaks, vaccines & risk in plain English Evidence greater than vibes

Adelaide Katılım Ocak 2026
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Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology
Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology@profesterman·
During COVID. many epidemiologists found themselves explaining complex, uncertain data in real time - often without any training in communication. I wrote about what it was actually like: @adrian.esterman/i-got-called-at-6am-and-sat-alone-in-the-dark-for-an-hour-4dece7bdf0a1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">medium.com/@adrian.esterm…
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Diane
Diane@Diane16783736·
@profesterman My friends all had Covid boosters have now passed away. How’s that for keeping citizens safe?
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Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology
Who can get a free COVID vaccination will change from 1 October. - They are adults aged 75 years or older (two doses per year, 6 months apart) - Adults aged 65–74 years (one dose per year, every 12 months) - Adults aged 18–64 years with severe immunocompromise (one dose per year, every 12 months) - Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults aged 50–74 years (one dose per year, every 12 months). This is a much smaller group than the current recommendations.
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Light
Light@Megan97812·
@profesterman How can any recommendations for covid vaccines be made, if we are not properly tracking side effects ?
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Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology
Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology@profesterman·
Good example of a claim that sounds sensible but isn't supported by evidence. mRNA vaccines are not classified as gene therapy because they do not alter the genome; they deliver transient instructions for cells to make a protein that stimulates an immune response. Similar technology ≠ same intervention.
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Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology
Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology@profesterman·
This is an intriguing body of evidence. Multiple observational studies report associations between routine vaccination and lower dementia risk. Whether that's a direct biological effect or reflects other differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated people remains uncertain. As always, association ≠ causation. But when consistent associations are seen across multiple vaccines and populations, they deserve serious investigation.
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Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance
What if your annual flu shot was doing more than just stopping a fever? Emerging research suggests common vaccines, including shingles, flu and DTP, are linked to a lower risk of dementia. In addition to providing protection against a specific disease, these routine jabs have been found to also reduce brain inflammation, a huge part of ensuring long-term cognitive health. Check out the full breakdown of the eight vaccines that made the list here: bit.ly/4vqCOxm
Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance tweet media
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Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology
Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology@profesterman·
Worth remembering that healthcare-associated COVID is still a patient safety issue. Victorian data found at least 6,212 patients acquired COVID in hospital during 2022–23, with 586 subsequent deaths. Infection prevention shouldn't be something we only think about during pandemics.
Denis - The COVID info guy -@BigBadDenis

"Hundreds of patients died after catching COVID in Victorian hospitals, new data shows" 6 May 2024 At least 6,212 patients caught COVID in hospital in 24 months (2022-2023) and 586 died — that's about 60 infections and 6 deaths per week, on average. abc.net.au/news/2024-05-0…

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Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology
Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology@profesterman·
Six cancer patients relapsed, and all of them had a COVID booster." Sounds damning. Now try: "Six people crashed their cars today, and all of them had eaten breakfast." Also true, and also proves nothing, because nearly everyone eats breakfast. And nearly everyone got the booster.
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Dr. Dawn Michael
Dr. Dawn Michael@DawnsMission·
🚨 SHOCKING VIDEO BOMBSHELL from Prof. Angus Dalgleish (World-Renowned Oncologist): “People cleared of Cancer FOR YEARS start relapsing — they ALL had been given the COVID Boosters.” “It’s simple — Boosters repress T-Cells and CANCERS go up with each VACCINE.” T-cell exhaustion is the mechanism. Young patients suddenly presenting with aggressive “turbo” cancers? Every single one had the boosters. Pfizer & Moderna mRNA shots aren’t just failing to protect — they’re actively sabotaging the immune system that keeps cancer in check. Long-term remission patients crashing hard after repeated doses. Cancer rates climbing shot after shot. This isn’t theory. This is what a leading cancer immunologist is seeing in real patients right now. The video is brutal. Watch it. Share it.
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7NEWS Sydney
7NEWS Sydney@7NewsSydney·
After successfully containing Australia's hantavirus scare, experts warn the next pandemic threat may be one we don't yet know about.
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Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology
Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology@profesterman·
Latest estimate from the USA, 16% of adults infected with COVID developing Long COVID. However, that is from hospital data, not a population sample: an older (average age >50), sicker cohort. Direct surveys put current cases nearer 1 in 10 of those infected. jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
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Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology
Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology@profesterman·
Friday methods post A statistically significant result is not necessarily an important one. With a large enough sample size, even tiny differences can produce very small p-values. That's why it's important to consider: • Effect sizes • Confidence intervals • Clinical or public health relevance • Potential sources of bias The key question isn't "Is the effect different from zero?" but "Is the effect large enough to matter?" Statistical significance tells us something happened. Effect size tells us whether anyone should care!
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Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology
Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology@profesterman·
This is great news. Cambridge Uni group have successfully completed a Phase I trial of a new pan-sarbeco virus family vaccine, which includes SARS-CoV-2. Now recruiting for Phase II. New AI-designed vaccine ‘could protect against whole families of viruses’ edp24.co.uk/news/national/…
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Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology
Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology@profesterman·
@anchinya Agreed, fair point. hMPV is one to watch. I focused on the three respiratory viruses with vaccines and solid ABS data, but you've flagged a genuine gap. Might be worth its own article!
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Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology
Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology@profesterman·
Good points. The article focused on mortality data and why influenza is currently causing more deaths than COVID. Long COVID and the possible effects of repeated COVID infections on the immune and vascular systems are important concerns, but they're separate questions from the mortality trends discussed in the piece. The evidence that these factors are driving this year's flu season is still evolving.
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Aparachick😷
Aparachick😷@aparachick·
@profesterman Im sorry but why did you completely ignore 1. Cumulative vascular damage and immune system damage caused by repeat Covid infections that would contribute to people not being able to fight virus’s like the flu as well as in the past. 2. Long Covid, which we don’t count, also.
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Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology
Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology@profesterman·
It's an empirical estimate from outbreak investigations rather than a particular modelling framework. Some studies use mean-field approaches, some include spatial structure. The main point is that Ebola transmission depends heavily on close-contact behaviours (especially caregiving and funerals), which are much less common and more controllable in developed-country settings.
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Ξpi-Yeti
Ξpi-Yeti@TheMemeticist·
@profesterman Is that R0 of a mean field model or a spatial simulation?
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Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology
Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology@profesterman·
An Ebola case travelling internationally is always taken seriously, but it's important to keep the risk in perspective. Ebola is not spread like COVID, influenza or measles. Transmission generally requires close contact with infected bodily fluids, which is why rapid case identification and contact tracing are so effective. The key question is not whether someone travelled, but whether public health authorities can identify and monitor contacts quickly.
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World Health Updates
World Health Updates@healthalertss·
BREAKING NEWS 🚨 An individual with Ebola traveled to the United Arab Emirates and then to Uganda, the World Health Organization said Wednesday.
World Health Updates tweet media
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