LBO_Guy

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LBO_Guy

@The_Analyst_Lab

Pushing the limits of Microsoft Excel.

Not Financial Advice Sumali Ocak 2023
382 Sinusundan1.7K Mga Tagasunod
LBO_Guy
LBO_Guy@The_Analyst_Lab·
Es lo que dicen si. Certeza como tal no hay. El ultimo detalle que tenemos es el de las cuentas anuales donde dicen tienen el 69% cubierto para 2026 y el 32% para el 2027. El 69% parece bastante solido. A cierre de diciembre el derivado de 76m te cubre el 50-55% (el restante al 69% seran los contratos de precios fijos).
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FrankBascombe
FrankBascombe@FrankTornen·
@The_Analyst_Lab @Guismovalue Estás seguro? Lo mismo decían en 2021...y luego resultó ser que era sólo un 50%. Y eso que tuvieron al IR de roadshow todo ese año.
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FrankBascombe
FrankBascombe@FrankTornen·
Valores industriales que ayer cayeron entre un 3% y 5% ante la amenaza del desplome de márgenes que supondrá el encarecimiento del coste de la energía,empezando por el gas. Algunos de ellos ya venían bajando fuerte y otros...están entrando en zona de valoraciones muy deprimidas.
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LBO_Guy
LBO_Guy@The_Analyst_Lab·
@FrankTornen Well it depends. Industrials I'd say 6-8 months (excluding some distressed), even some consumer staples are around 80% hedged. But then again, there're corporates with most of the position open... probably 4-6 months is a good average.
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LBO_Guy
LBO_Guy@The_Analyst_Lab·
Let's put it this way. Consumer is already beaten down after the massive inflation over the past years (+50%). We've seen this across the board, consumers are trading down on everything. Now you have oil at >$110/barrel vs $60 just 2 months ago, which still has not fully passed yet (except for gas stations) because most corporates have 6-8 month hedges on energy/oil. If you truly expect this to last more than 6 months, prices will start to creep up because corporates will have to pass some of the cost increases, the only impact this is going to have is consumption getting wrecked. If you've been listening to earnings calls this reporting season you might have noticed that the common theme is nobody has pricing power! why? because the consumer does not have any money left. It really is that simple. There is no single scenario in which you have runnaway inflation. You hike prices, consumption stalls or falls off a cliff. You only hike interest rates when you've printed massive amounts of money that has gone into the stock market!! But still so many central bankers seem obvlibious to this.
LBO_Guy@The_Analyst_Lab

The fact that some are pricing in rate hikes is something out of this world. 5G must have left massive brain damage.

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market participant
market participant@undrvalue·
$GOOG just leapfrogging all the prosumer AI apps and giving them away…
Google AI@GoogleAI

We’re launching a brand new, full-stack vibe coding experience in @GoogleAIStudio, made possible by integrations with the @Antigravity coding agent and @Firebase backends. This unlocks: — Full-stack multiplayer experiences: Create complex, multiplayer apps with fully-featured UIs and backends directly within AI Studio — Connection to real-world services: Build applications that connect to live data sources, databases, or payment processors and the Antigravity agent will securely store your API credentials for you — A smarter agent that works even when you don't: By maintaining a deeper understanding of your project structure and chat history, the agent can execute multi-step code edits from simpler prompts. It also remembers where you left off and completes your tasks while you’re away, so you can seamlessly resume your builds from anywhere — Configuration of database connections and authentication flows: Add Firebase integration to provision Cloud Firestore for databases and Firebase authentication for secure sign-in This demo displays what can be built in the new vibe coding experience in AI Studio. Geoseeker is a full-stack application that manages real-time multiplayer states, compass-based logic, and an external API integration with @GoogleMaps 🕹️

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Daily Wire
Daily Wire@realDailyWire·
This might actually be Trump's funniest moment 😂 Japanese Reporter: Why didn't you tell us before you struck Iran? Trump: "Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?" 💀🔥😂
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LBO_Guy
LBO_Guy@The_Analyst_Lab·
Let me get this straight. These guys have massive industrial complexes and have no defenses? No anti-missile batteries? It’s not like you need to protect 1000 sites, it’s a handful! Turns out they are just as incompetent (if not more) as the EU.
QatarEnergy@qatarenergy

QatarEnergy Statement on Missile Attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City QatarEnergy confirms that Ras Laffan Industrial City this evening has been the subject of missile attacks. Emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the resulting fires, as extensive damage has been caused. All personnel have been accounted for and no casualties have been reported at this time. QatarEnergy will continue to communicate the latest available information. #Qatar

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LBO_Guy
LBO_Guy@The_Analyst_Lab·
Kudos a BMW, se han cargado el triunvirato aleman (Audi, BMW, Mer). Hoy por hoy, si te gusta la conduccion deportiva BMW se papea a Audi o Merc con el M3/M4; si quieres un familiar ahora el touring se merienda al A6 avant; y si quieres comfort tienes el X7 o XM que hunde a Mer.
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LBO_Guy
LBO_Guy@The_Analyst_Lab·
Tienes que coger enero+febrero para elimiar ese efecto. Si lo haces la bajada es sustancial y solo hay algo parecido (aunque mas suave) en 2023. Para poner los datos en contexto, el -15.4% de 2023 se da porque eliminan subsidios a EVs, suben el impuesto de compra en ICE del 5% al 10% y tienes otra ola COVID tras relajar las medidas de confinamiento en China. En este 2026 lo unico que tienes es el impuesto de compra de electricos del 0 al 5% (ICE a caido igual que NEV = no parece muy material) y una pequeña reduccion de incentivos trade-in y achatarramiento que basicamente reducen el subsidio de c.€2.5k a c.€1.5k en achatarramientos y de c.€1.8k a c.€1.1k en trade-in. Esto si ha podido afectar sobre todo a la parte baja del segmento (a los premiums no porque sigues llegando al cap y en % sobre el precio es inmaterial). Aun asi la piña que llevan a nivel nacional es para nota.
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3ACT
3ACT@dwenthij58·
@The_Analyst_Lab Hay un -20% en Febrero del 2024, supongo q deben ser cosas del año nuevo chino
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LBO_Guy
LBO_Guy@The_Analyst_Lab·
🚨MERCEDES AND BYD COLLAPSING IN SALES IN CHINA🇨🇳 One of the best signals you can get in autos is chinese domestic sales data (most competitive market). Here are some mind-blowing results: - Mercedes collapsing -40% YoY and almost -60% from peak. - BMW -33% from peak but seems it has stabilized now. Also new product from Neue Klasse platform starting to come at YE so that *should* help. - VW brand -33% from peak although still falling at -12% YoY. - Audi -35% from peak and falling -8% YoY. - BYD collapsing in domestic market -64% YoY
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LBO_Guy@The_Analyst_Lab

Kudos a BMW, se han cargado el triunvirato aleman (Audi, BMW, Mer). Hoy por hoy, si te gusta la conduccion deportiva BMW se papea a Audi o Merc con el M3/M4; si quieres un familiar ahora el touring se merienda al A6 avant; y si quieres comfort tienes el X7 o XM que hunde a Mer.

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LBO_Guy
LBO_Guy@The_Analyst_Lab·
@dwenthij58 Hombre, enfriar lo ques enfriar no se si es la palabra adecuada. Las ventas van un -48% YoY en Febrero y un -22.5% YoY en los dos primeros meses. En España, en el 2008, hubo unos 9 meses negativos de -30/51%. Un 48% es una burrada, aunque hay que ver si dura.
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BMW M Motorsport
BMW M Motorsport@BMWMotorsport·
The beast is finally awake. BMW M3 Touring 24H. You dreamed it. #WeBuiltIt
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Tuklasin

@Guismovalue @FrankTornen @Negative_Pledge @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates