Jon Klaric

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie Almost never hit anything except all those hits on 20% of the world’s oil and gas supplies… genius observation skills there champ

@complex_maths @rationalaussie The bombs we’ll be using are about $10K. No need for the expensive stuff. Planes & pilots have to fly regardless. They can with drop dummies on the range or real ones on Iran. Iran’s good drones are $30K & almost never hit anything. You’re grasping at silly straws.

It is hard to model scenarios you have never lived through, which is why most people can't do it. You can provide most people with all the evidence - everything that makes it look almost certain a particular thing will happen - but at the end of the day most won't make that final leap of faith to say 'yep, that's gonna happen, I need to act'. The reason for this is twofold: 1) they lack generality across domains (can't reason from first principles, and are missing too many mental models of how the world works) 2) they are not used to thinking about these things, and simply don't care. In any case, black swans are always an interesting case study of human behaviour. Because you always think 'surely, this time, they will see it.' But no, they never do.

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie The place that they are going to build it isn’t being bombed and will not be bombed. They are loaded and have a guaranteed income stream from China. Their drones cost pennies compared with American missiles, and the outcome is a still closed strait - like we are seeing right now.

@complex_maths @rationalaussie 3/For the millionth time, you can’t conduct major construction or manufacturing activities while being bombed at will. We can let them spend their remaining pennies rebuilding the missile plants, and when they’re at about 80% of spend, we blow them up. They aren’t insured.

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie And the US is chickening out. What appetite will the population have for a drawn out occupation when gas hits $6/gallon?

@complex_maths @rationalaussie 2/The other question mark was whether the Arabs would wimp out if attacked. Iran gambled they would & lost. The Arabs are now highly pissed & want Persian scalps. THEY are now demanding we stay as long as takes to crush the drone & missile threat. Once it’s gone, it’s gone.

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie And all the drone strikes, clearly

@complex_maths @rationalaussie 1/It wouldn’t happened this time if they just cooked it. Attempts to restart guarantee this happens again. Look, the only thing deterring us was the threat of getting shot down & the missile threat vs the Arabs. There is no more air defense really.

How are they broke? They have billions stashed away, and the ships that are getting through the strait are oil and goods ships trading with China. Unless the US also goes to war with China how do you propose to stop Chinese flagged ships getting through? You’re really pro-war aren’t you buddy… did you seriously learn nothing from Iraq and Afghanistan?

@complex_maths @rationalaussie They’re broke. And they will no longer have any income unless we allow it. Since they have no future, nobody is going to loan them anything. Who cares about the nuke plant? It’s only for power. We simply bomb the grid. You’re really crazy aren’t you?

@zerohedge They might still be pissed at the whole bombing thing

*TRUMP: WE WANT TO TALK TO IRAN, THERE IS NOBODY TO TALK TO

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie It’s extremely expensive especially when compared to the cost of Irans drones, some of which are even 3D printed.

@complex_maths @rationalaussie 2So they can put in some crazy Ayatollah. Fine. If they receive weapons, we blow them up. If they try to rebuild, boom. When you have constant surveillance and can be over target in minutes with no resistance, it isn’t that hard or even expensive.

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie So why are ships and oil and gas facilities still being bombed and droned?

@complex_maths @rationalaussie So they’re magical? As badly as they are outgunned by land & sea, it’s worse on the ground. They can’t stick their heads up. We can go wherever we want. I don’t understand you.

Yet the strait is still closed, drones are still bombing everywhere and yet the largest Navy in the world - the navy of the country that started it - still thinks it’s too risky to go in themselves … I have zero understanding where your confidence in any of this comes from when every piece of evidence points to the exact opposite?

@complex_maths @rationalaussie 1We are no longer in the mindset business. We are in the destroy business. All offensive capabilities are being destroyed. Then we “leave”. We go back to the other side of the gulf. About 1 minute by plane. Why’s this so hard to understand?

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie A day or two? More like a decade or two.

@complex_maths @rationalaussie Of course not. They’ll fight for a day or 2. Then they’ll be dead. And we’ll lose some guys. Maybe 100. The Arabs & IDF as well. But it will be over & the gulf will be open for good. A huge gift to the world paid for by 1/2 dozen, mostly tiny countries.

You can’t though - less than 1% are checked. Actions have consequences and it’s unlikely that given these events Iran will continue with the same playbook as before. The game has changed, and they now know they effectively need nuclear deterrence of some description to prevent this from happening again.

@complex_maths @rationalaussie Israel can handle their end. Obviously we’d have to be very careful about anything coming from Iran. But we can stop containers. We can’t stop missiles. This is a really dumb argument. You’re saying if disaster is barely a possibility why not make it a certainty?

They have heaps of money, and that will probably continue with support from China and Russia. No bombs have hit the nuclear plant, and it’s very unlikely any will die to the risk of fallout. Trump will probably back down sooner or later and when that happens the Iranians will rush to do whatever upgrades they need.

@complex_maths @rationalaussie Everything they can ain’t much. Once again, people who’ve worked construction, nuclear, chemical realize you can’t do lots of nuke plant conversions in the middle of being bombed with no money & no transportation.

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie Israel is a short drive and the US barely inspects 1% of containers. What do you intend to do about those 5M people who need electricity and water?

@complex_maths @rationalaussie Yes they could use the container strategy to get us. (Iran is a tough drive.) But they were going for ICBM’s that could be here in 30 min. How’s that more desirable? There may be 5M anywhere near SoH. Probably 1/2 dozen sorties would shut down power in an afternoon.

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie I don’t think Iran will give up the territory without a fight regardless who’s in the coalition.

@complex_maths @rationalaussie Well if we have to go in, I don’t think the Arabs will be giving anything back. Much better for everybody if they own both sides of the strait, isn’t it? So yes, they will be there forever.

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie They are probably going to do everything they can to make that transition as quickly as possible, given the events of the past few weeks.

@complex_maths @rationalaussie 1/The reactor is not a breeder. It produces small amounts of plutonium requiring impractical amounts of enrichment. Their U is still at 60% if it is even usable. Can’t get too warm. Can’t be breached. Then you have radioactive acid. Yikes.

@theoilgod @jimcramer The man is a true oracle, you just need to inverse Cramer and you will be rich in no time.

@jimcramer Cramer been in the markets for decades and his hit rate is like 20%. How does this dude still have a job?

Very oversold...

@OMGTheMess Do we have enough diesel to supply the ship?

At the same time Albo is telling Trump to get stuffed in supplying a minesweeper for the gulf, he’s asking for additional diesel fuel direct from the USA.

@TruthFairy131 From behind too… what a dog act. Once upon a time, we’d just take the kid behind the shed and beat the living shit out of him.

🔥 BREAKING 🔥 An innocent woman is recovering in hospital after she was stabbed at random by a teenager at a Clayton shopping centre, Melbourne. This is normal now in Labor’s ‘New Modern’ Melbourne. A man was also randomly shot yesterday in Craigieburn, Melbourne while out on a walk & a 70 year old man out for walk was stabbed this morning in Melbourne. Vic Labor Politicians should all be jailed, they are 💯 responsible for the deaths & harm of so many innocent Australians. Majority of the time these offenders are known to Police or/ and out on bail. Be aware of your surroundings, be prepared to protect & defend your life by any means possible.

How is it wrong? I think you’re living in a fantasy land. America and all her allies couldn’t stamp out that mindset from Afghanistan and Iraq over the course of 20 years, and Iran is even larger with more ways of ingress, and the technology they use to shut the strait even easier to obtain and deploy. This is going to be a decade long shitfight, and the second the US leaves they will look to build a nuke as fast as physically possible, probably in locations where the US and Israel won’t won’t to bomb.

@complex_maths @rationalaussie You’re exactly wrong. Perfectly backwards. You DO want endless wars. There can be no future wars with Iran after we finish eliminating their military in a few weeks. The sketchy intelligence comes from the lips of the Iranians.