@IBookWins Unpopular opinion... Tells you that the implied govt put is much lower
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Mark Johnston
2.7K posts
Mark Johnston
@profutures2012
Futures trader with focus on CL, ZN, NG, NQ, ZS, HG
USA Sumali Haziran 2010
388 Sinusundan9.9K Mga Tagasunod
@Rory_Johnston I don't see anyone on X modeling structural demand destruction due to refinery outages
4pmbpd is coming, but not at this price and not at this equity market level
4 => significant GDP slowing and much lower equities
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I still personally struggle with these early demand destruction estimates.
In many cases, a demanded barrel couldn’t be had at any price given acute initial shortages—presumably those who would still consume at higher prices will bid for other seaborne barrels, spreading the destruction more broadly beyond Asia in particular and arriving at a truer price-induced demand destruction.
Giovanni Staunovo🛢@staunovo
4mbpd of oil demand lost due to Iran war supply crisis - CEO Vitol #oott
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@Tyler_Durden77 @simon_ree That's the exact problem, it's not "few". The paper market is orders of magnitude larger than physical market = disconnect
Now tell me what changes that
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@simon_ree As a friend told me, "It's as if we suspended the reality of the physical market for the playground of the few in the paper markets. It's beyond disconnected"
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Mark Johnston nag-retweet
Equities have made up their mind:
1. The war ends
2. The Strait reopens
Therefore safe to look through it. Nothing to see here
And look, wars end. The traffic will resume. The logic isn't wrong, it's just missing a variable. Time.
Another couple of weeks of closure => inflation impulse (diesel and jet fuel are at ATH even with oil off the highs), Q2/Q3 earnings and guidance disappoint at the margin. Stagflation-lite.
Another couple of months? Stagflation proper. Busted supply chains. Refined product shortages rippling worldwide.Planting season fallout feeding through Q3/Q4 food prices.
Every additional day the Strait stays shut, the fundamentals degrade incrementally - for inflation, growth, and earnings
Markets are priced for the best-case resolution. They haven't priced the clock
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@fundmyfund Here we go... I know you have to buy a wall of worry normally and all, but the resumption of firing = another month of SoH closure and things that liquidity, M2, and the Fed cannot affect
I'm calling top right here (a fool's errand, ofc)
Simon Ree@simon_ree
Equities have made up their mind: 1. The war ends 2. The Strait reopens Therefore safe to look through it. Nothing to see here And look, wars end. The traffic will resume. The logic isn't wrong, it's just missing a variable. Time. Another couple of weeks of closure => inflation impulse (diesel and jet fuel are at ATH even with oil off the highs), Q2/Q3 earnings and guidance disappoint at the margin. Stagflation-lite. Another couple of months? Stagflation proper. Busted supply chains. Refined product shortages rippling worldwide.Planting season fallout feeding through Q3/Q4 food prices. Every additional day the Strait stays shut, the fundamentals degrade incrementally - for inflation, growth, and earnings Markets are priced for the best-case resolution. They haven't priced the clock
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Market is sleeping on this risk because of the headlines
Risk premium will be larger going forward... oil facilities used to be considered off limits in conflict in the oil futures era at least
#oott
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
RUSSIA'S OIL OUTPUT DECLINES IN APRIL BY BETWEEN 300,000 BPD AND 400,000 BPD FROM AVERAGE LEVEL IN FIRST MONTHS OF THIS YEAR, ACCORDING TO FIVE SOURCES AND REUTERS CALCULATIONS
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Mark Johnston nag-retweet
الخارجية القطرية: حل أزمة مضيق هرمز ليس مسؤولية دولة واحدة بل مسؤولية دولية #الحدث_عاجل
العربية
Says a lot about market mentality... it's not just paper mkt
Sparta@SpartaCommo
Naphtha Market Flash: Naphtha E/W collapses as Hormuz uncertainty paralyses eastern buyers -The naphtha E/W spread has dropped to the lowest level since the beginning of the Iran war. May contract is currently trading below $45/mt, less than $10/mt higher than before the pre-war level. -1H June deliveries from Europe via Cape are now closed, with Asian players holding back purchasing decisions amid the ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. No buyer wants to commit to the last expensive cargo routed the long way around if the strait reopens in the coming days or weeks. This wait-and-see stance has effectively frozen eastern arb appetite. -For the first time since the war began, NWE is offering better economics than Asian markets for MED-origin naphtha. Layers that had been directing volumes eastward throughout the conflict are now finding NWE to be their best outlet. -Russian volume points to decrease also in the short term as Ukraine struck the Rosneft-operated Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea for the second time in less than a week. -Meanwhile, the two-week Iran war ceasefire expires on Tuesday 22 April, with a second round of Islamabad talks being set up. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed after Tehran reversed its brief reopening on April 18, citing the continued US naval blockade on Iranian ports. -The most likely scenario from here is a rebound toward current levels, with timespreads already ticking higher over the past few sessions. The naphtha deficit in Asian economies is structural at this point. Even if a deal is reached relatively soon, the need to attract product from the West will persist for months. By Jorge Molinero, Analyst. For deeper market intelligence, daily commentaries, and expert insight, access Sparta Knowledge with a free 30-day trial: signup.sparta.app #oott #naphtha
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Expect more of this in the coming days... 2nd such incident. Cells are being activated worldwide.
This is endgame move for the regime
#OOTT
Open Source Intel@Osint613
The UAE arrested 27 suspects linked to an Iranian terror network planning attacks to destabilize the country, according to the Emirati State News Agency. @ariel_oseran
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HFI Research@HFI_Research
Just some observations on this. Iran’s president and foreign minister have no influence now on the negotiation process. Araghchi’s post last Friday about the Strait of Hormuz being “completely open” has put him officially in political exile. He’s no longer relevant. The only person remotely relevant today is Ghalibaf, Iranian’s Parliament speaker, but he does not have the power to sway the hardliners (IRGC). Strategically speaking, it’s in the IRGC’s interest to keep attacks at bay under the ruse of a “ceasefire” but maintain the status quo. Trump and his advisors know that so they cannot play the game. Everyday that goes by, the 11-13 million b/d production shut-in continues. Time is not on the US’s side. As @ProfessorPape said, there is an off ramp here but it involves limiting Israel. (Note: I recommend you read his work.) In essence, negotiating with the IRGC leads us to nowhere. Another extension of ceasefire will just be the status quo continuing.
QHT
@robin_j_brooks I really hope your view of things is correct for the sake of humanity
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@profutures2012 Always love the back and forth with actual traders. 2022 was very different. There was the huge spike in natural gas prices as Germany and Europe switched away from Russian gas. And the G7 price cap headlines started hitting in June. I think the dynamic now is very different...
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Incorrect... only have to look back 4 years to prove this one wrong
2022... an initial spike in March, massive swings up and down, topping in summer
#OOTT
Source: I made a shtload of $$ that year
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks
When a trade suffers the kind of pullback oil has now seen, it's over. A trade is just a story. It needs excitement and momentum. That's out the window and has been replaced by people asking how low oil prices will fall once a peace agreement is reached... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-my…
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A 2 week ceasefire extension without the Strait open only helps Iran by placing additional economic pressure on Trump
#OOTT
I would personally prefer if Trump stopped and armed an insurgency.. but I don't really see that happening
The Strait will open itself if the US leaves
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There are very fine people on both sides 🍿 😅
How fun. I love rivalries $ONDS v $AVEX
Poor $RCAT off to the corner shunned
@retail_mourinho @BMSInvests @michaelsikand @KawzInvests
🦄 Fund.Drone.DefenseTech.Photonics $LPTH $UMAC 🐋@fundmyfund
$ONDS v $AVEX Maybe this is the next $NBIS v $IREN
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The Strait of Hormuz opens if
a) Trump walks away with no deal
b) the IRGC is defeated
There is no "deal" with these radicals... I wish there were
@Rory_Johnston
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@fundmyfund do $RICK and make it into something dirty at the same time
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🚨 CHART REQUESTS THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
Format: Post the ticker symbol in response to this post
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I will reply with the chart and then if you have another request please reply to that. No more than 3 stonks in the next hour per person
Please don't request a chart of something I talk about every day like $LPTH haha
Most likely at this point in the rally I will respond "extended as hell" or "it should have gone by now"
These are not prediction, just probabilities
GIF
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no need to include the rest, first 7 words really sum up Trump's vibe atm
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@bp22 Open source solves all of this... and this administration is the kind to recognize and put some structure around this kind of initiative
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You're going to have to DIY your own gene therapy cure.....
Oasis@oasishealthapp
Goldman Sachs warns curing patients is not a sustainable business model - Gilead's hepatitis C cure caused sales crash from $12.5 billion to under $4 billion when it actually worked - GSK sold off its entire gene therapy pipeline in 2018 - Pfizer abandoned every gene therapy program by 2025 - BioMarin pulled its hemophilia cure from the US market in Feb 2026 - Bluebird bio had three FDA approved cures and was worth $10 billion yet sold to private equity for $29 million in 2025
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@DonMiami3 Allah will grant a glorious victory before that can happen
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So we're short about 14.5mbpd
Iran will start cutting production next week
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
CRUDE OIL LOADINGS FROM SAUDI ARABIA’S YANBU PORT FELL 17% TO ABOUT 3.5 MLN BPD IN THE WEEK BEGINNING APRIL 13, SHIPPING DATA SHOWS
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