Quinn Thompson

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Quinn Thompson

Quinn Thompson

@qthomp

CIO @Lekker_Cap | Podcast @ForwardGuidance https://t.co/yne8aQZnXF

Sumali Aralık 2018
1.6K Sinusundan30.2K Mga Tagasunod
Trevor Hall
Trevor Hall@TrevAHall·
Tomorrow's MSD March Madness of Macro episode with @qthomp
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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
@fejau_inc @Stormbr3aker12 @Eeeff419 @ForwardGuidance We only pounded the table to buy metals since late summer through December and then told everyone to sell within a week of the top in January and then said to be short Mag7 since November/December and then long oil and energy in December/January. Can lead a horse to water…
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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
It should be taken with a grain of salt when you hear European and Asian countries saying they won’t help to open the Strait. Majority of these countries are short oil and will face severe crises if they don’t act. There are definitely closed door conversations in the US being had around testing these partners’ resolve. The problem is that although it’s not *as* big of a problem for the US, it’s still bad. It could get a bit weird. Trump may threaten US export restrictions on oil and gas if they don’t assist which would decrease price pressures domestically but worsen the situation for our allies. On the other hand, they could counter with threats of Treasury and US asset sales to raise dollars to fund higher energy costs at the expense of financial market stability.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: Germany, Japan, and Australia say they will not be joining US efforts to militarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the UK and France say they are willing to discuss options, per WSJ.

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Cav
Cav@CavanXy·
Would be rather ironic if Trump finally gets his desired lower rates, but they come in the form of panic cuts Gut says the probability of ≥ 100bps of cuts by EOY is mispriced
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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
I know it's only March but if you know anyone in your family is going to be on the naughty list you may want to consider hedging your future coal purchases with a long $COAL position. You're competing against the AI capex boom and sovereign nations short energy into a war.
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GIF
Quinn Thompson@qthomp

Despite very little coverage, coal may be the best way to simultaneously bet on the AI capex boom, global economic reacceleration, industrial renaissance, US natural gas exports and Trump admin deregulation. Just sent out a report detailing the thesis and investable universe.

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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
Despite very little coverage, coal may be the best way to simultaneously bet on the AI capex boom, global economic reacceleration, industrial renaissance, US natural gas exports and Trump admin deregulation. Just sent out a report detailing the thesis and investable universe.
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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
How ironic would it be if there were a market crisis event in the next few months while Powell is still at the helm of the Fed, requiring extreme Fed and White House/Treasury cooperation while those relations are as strained as they've been in recent history.
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DMD
DMD@Daveeemor·
Have joined @qthomp on the long WHEAT & CANE trade. Appears to be ending a 2-4yr bear market. Quinn has nailed the Iran crisis and was ringing alarm bells way before it started. Feeding his content to my AI agent over the last weeks has really helped inform my own decisions.
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Quinn Thompson@qthomp

Jeff Currie reads Scouting the Tape. "I think the best sector to try to get value in right now would be agriculture, because it hasn't priced it in." youtube.com/watch?v=54Jt9N…

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Cem Karsan 🥐
Cem Karsan 🥐@jam_croissant·
Odds are high that the timing of the moves are driven by intel… I don’t think it’s likely to delay or prevent a move on Taiwan. Quite the contrary. I think, instead, they are essentially ceding Taiwan, and aggressively pursuing what they see as more critical fronts on the coming global conflict.
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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
Asking for a friend how small caps are going to perform after everyone piled in long behind the economic reacceleration trade while private credit implodes, the AI capex buffer declines and the Fed remains on hold...
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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
Oil was at $60
Quinn Thompson@qthomp

I'm a bit surprised at the lack of discussion on Iran and what's going on in the Middle East. The US is on the brink of war that by extension would be against China and Russia as well given the support they are providing. I am also surprised that oil is not trading at highs given the continued amassing of military assets in the region. What if Trump views this conflict as his 2026 Liberation Day equivalent? His confidence must be at all-time highs given the Maduro raid and his belief he can control the US dollar like a yo-yo and pump the stock market whenever he chooses. I think his willingness to act here is being underestimated. March Polymarket odds of an Iran strike are underpriced to me. Large geopolitical events are always low likelihood (nothing ever happens) and difficult to predict but I think people are too complacent here.

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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
👇
Quinn Thompson@qthomp

I will share an idea that I believe is going to be very important to markets in 2026. 2025 taught the Trump administration a huge lesson - publicly touting "it's Main Street's turn" and a message of "taking pain" backfired bigly. It caused a record sell off that forced a walk back of rhetoric and delay/reversal of policy objectives. 2026 will demonstrate they've learned that lesson and will act accordingly. 2026 is about "Main Street's turn" because if it's not, they will lose the midterms and Trump's safety, wealth and legacy will come under attack. It HAS to be "Main Street's turn" this year or else. However, they are going to adapt to the mistakes of 2025. They will be more subtle and less blatant in their communications as to what parts of the market this is a negative for. They can't have a wealthy/corporate tantrum like they did after Liberation Day or their agenda will be stopped in its tracks once again. You can already see this in how the market is trading. While they were touting "Main Street's turn" in early 2025, the market knew that wouldn't be the case as small caps topped in November while Nasdaq continued to make new highs into February. Most of 2025 was an anti-growth/countercyclical policy agenda. Today we have the exact opposite setup from a policy perspective and once again the market is sniffing out this changing of the guard.

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Arnaud Bertrand
Arnaud Bertrand@RnaudBertrand·
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but if infrastructure like this 👇 gets blown up, as of this moment it will take at least a decade to recover from this war - and the truth is that the world's energy picture is probably changed forever. This single facility 👇produced roughly 20% of global LNG supply (aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18…) and, as of 2011, had taken $70 billion to build (energyintel.com/0000017b-a7be-…). What makes this even worse is that Iran's strike on this was retaliation after Israel attacked their South Pars gas field which draws from the same natural gas reservoir, which is the world's largest by far (9,700 km² - about the size of Qatar itself). Heck, on the list of the 25 largest natural gas fields (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n…) this single reservoir holds roughly 40% of their combined recoverable reserves - and is nearly 6 times bigger than the 2nd biggest field in the world. And, unlike many of the others on the list, it's only at 10% depletion (meaning 90% of the gas is still there). Which means that, probably for many years, a huge share of the gas from the world's largest reservoir simply won't be extractable, as infrastructure on both sides - Qatar's and Iran's - has now been blown up. From a global energy supply perspective, we're deep into worst-case scenario territory.
QatarEnergy@qatarenergy

QatarEnergy Statement on Missile Attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City QatarEnergy confirms that Ras Laffan Industrial City this evening has been the subject of missile attacks. Emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the resulting fires, as extensive damage has been caused. All personnel have been accounted for and no casualties have been reported at this time. QatarEnergy will continue to communicate the latest available information. #Qatar

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