Alexandre MARIE

@spiga_dorata Even with low yield canadian crop will produce a decent tonnage thx to the acreage, same in the US. Far East (Kz/Ru) has a bumper crop underway. Lot of invertude about quality but quantitatively speaking, it looks confortable.

Could be the 3 hottest days in a row for durum wheat areas in the Canadian prairies, in Montana and North Dakota until now... 🌾🥵 🔥 🌡️ #durumwheat

Australia's #canola markets have been kicking recently 🔥. The offshore markets are rallying, especially in AUD terms, while our relative value (in NSW at least) is also strengthening. NSW is up $40/t over the past fortnight or so, while SA/VIC is not up quite as much. #oatt

@VisioCrop pour voir un plafonnement, mieux vaut tourner le regard vers l'ouest, ...... de l'UE ! la Russie continue d'améliorer sa productivité même si elle ralentit. 90Mt on the road again ... in Russia. et oui, avec ce "global warming", les surfaces de blé d'hiver tendent à grimper

Les rendements de blé n'augmentent plus en Russie ... Ils ne produiront pas pour la planéte indefiniment , a moins de transformer le permafrost en culture ....

@sabanbuttanri Hi Saban and happy new year, thx for your posts, very helpfull. I would like to discuss with you about the durum crop / export potential in Turkey for the next years. If you are ok please, send me a direct message, i don't succeed to send a direct message. Best regards / Alex

Prices for good quality Turkish durum wheat (such as Ovidio, Svevo, Zenit, or similar types with 80/82 hectoliters and protein above 14%) have slightly increased to a range of 365 to 375 USD/MT. There isn't much durum wheat left in the hands of farmers, but the TMO (Turkish Grain Board) still holds a substantial amount of durum wheat in their custody. Slowly but surely, pasta, high-quality baklava flour, and bulgur producers are purchasing from the TMO at around 350 USD/MT. The export of durum wheat from Turkey to mainly Europe and North Africa has been temporarily halted. From the beginning of the export campaign in July until December 31, 2023, the total aggregate quantity of durum wheat exported was close to 1.3 million MT, and as far as I can see, no new export permissions have been granted and no vessel currently under loading. Considering the above, also the second crop corn is currently being harvested in the southeast part of Turkey at full swing, and thereafter, durum wheat will be planted in this fertile irrigated land. At present, we do not yet know the exact size of durum wheat for the 2024, but without any hesitation, we should expect a 15-20% increase in durum wheat plantation compared to last year's output of 4.2 million MT.

@sabanbuttanri Dear Saban, Hope my message finds you well. I would like to discuss with you about durum market. But, impossible to reach you on the X message box. here is my email : alexandre.marie@argusdirect.com Best regards

TMO did not increase its sales price for the durum wheat for the month of December 2023; thus, the prices for December will be as follows: First-grade durum wheat: 10,200 TL/Ton Second-grade durum wheat: 10,100 TL/Ton Third-grade durum wheat: 10,000 TL/Ton Imported durum wheat of lower quality: 9,900 TL/Ton Currency exchange rates: 1 USD = 28.85 TL 1 EUR = 31.54 TL

🚨 Plus petite surface de blé tendre attendue en France depuis au moins 2000 🚜 4,24 Mha selon l'enquête @ArgusMedia (Agritel) soit -11% ⛔ 530 000ha qui ne seront pas semés en blé tendre cette année Merci à tous les répondants 👍

📢Planted areas for French soft wheat are expected to fall to their lowest this side of the millennium, after two months of heavy rain undermined crop conditions. Continue reading here: argusmedia.com/en//news/25209…

🌾 🚜 Estimations des surfaces francaises en 2024 selon Agreste @FranceAgriMerFR : Blé : 4.49 Mha, -5.1 % vs l'an passé Orge : 1.31 Mha, -4 % Colza : 1.35 Mha, +0.5 % Enquête @agritel_argus toujours ouverte : docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…

@dugers Agreste 4.49Mha à l'instant. Première coupe officielle et la réalité risque d'être bien moindre. Agritel lance une grande enquête nationale pour mieux nous éclairer sur la sole de blé à récolte en 2024. 🚜🎑 docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…

#blé2024 une production 36/37 MT vous pouvez déjà l oublier, nous sommes sur le même schéma que 2019 ......

[ENQUÊTE AGRICULTEURS] Les intempéries ont perturbé les travaux des champs. Agritel lance une enquête pour éclaircir la situation et évaluer les impacts sur le marché. Participez et recevez nos résultats en avant-première ici : forms.gle/7F2egRQsdQfd12…

@DDFalpha "What if ?...." that is the question. In your scenario, the market will skyrocket to 17$/bu. that is a possibility, "hedge your risk". with below avg rainfall and heatwave in Brazil for another 3-5 weeks, the market could develop the weather premium.

Lets assume given weather experienced already in Brazil we downgrade the crop 20MMT from USDA est of 163MMT, lets calculate for weather in Argentina (if it should happen) & downgrade that crop 5MMT to 43MMT. Lets also assume production declines in Paraguay of 2MMT, & Uruguay 400MT. After 27.4MMT of downgrades we're left with a crop of 196.5MMT, 3.7MMT higher than 2022/23. The bigger question is demand which is expected to be higher YoY. For now, market has done a great job of calculating for risk premium and unknowns over South American production. It's still very early. Follow the price action.

@GEIKKO270588 🍾 congrats 🍾

📈👶📉

@cmdtySal seems to be a July alert...

BREAKING: #Russian Military informed the Harbor Master of Kavkaz, that all vessel activities in open area of #Kavkaz are stopped! Huge number of grain vessels stuck there! Kavkaz is one of the major ports where #Russian grains are shipped! #oatt #AgTwitter

@granduro Thx for sharing, Did you study the correlation of this yield estimate and the final yield?

The Saskatchewan report estimates the provincial (about 80 % of Canada as a whole) yield of Durum at 23 bu/ac (1.55 t/ha). This is lower than the 2023 yield published a few days ago by StatsCan at 26.8 bu/ac. www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…

Allendale's 34th annual Nationwide Producer Yield Survey brought corn yields down to 171.51 bpa and production of 14.805. Soybean yields of 49.58 bpa and 4.100 billion production was noted. Nebraska yields were -14 bpa on corn and -8 bpa on soybeans vs. Aug USDA.

@gaurav_kochar Hi Sir, thx for sharing. Is there a way to get the historical dataset of the monsoon performance?

Large #Rainfall Deficiency received in August month of #monsoon 2023 0ver #India- The Highest previous record of Rainfall Deficiency in the month of August was in the year 2005.

@VisioCrop @USDAForeignAg @profarmer @kannbwx Pour echanger avec Karen, speak in Bu/acre equivalent ;)

Mon modele de prevision de rendement Corn US sort une prevision de rendement en dessous de @USDAForeignAg Que va trouver @profarmer , lors de son Crop tour ? Que pense @kannbwx de ma simulation?🤔

@GRAiNLi_1 Thx for sharing, any information about the screening, malting selection rate?

In its sixth and last harvest forecast published today, the German cooperative organization #Raiffeisen_DRV predicts a spring barley harvest of 1.58 million tons in 2023, which corresponds to 20% less than in the previous year. The reasons for this are both a smaller acreage and poor yields per hectare due to unfavorable growth and weather conditions. Therefore, imports need to be higher to meet domestic demand for #malting #barley.

@ACOMRB Thx for sharing. The world crop will be way below their estimate.

@granduro very high range of price depending durum quality, if you want to buy dvd french port for good spec, i would put the value around 430-435€/T

The price of #durum wheat continues to decline from the highs of the period. Now at 410€/t at French ports.