Space Initiatives

@policytensor I fear it already has.

We’re playing Monopoly now. This is going to end with the collapse of the Western-centric world order. From Schroeder, Stealing Horses to Great Applause.

@BartGonnissen Not likely to convince: The United States is the primary nation that does not regard the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS-82) as binding regarding deep sea mining. The U.S. adheres to its own Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA) instead.

Does Iran have the legal right to create checkpoints in the Strait of Hormuz? According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 1982, they do not. However, Iran signed but never ratified UNCLOS 1982, similar to the United States. As a result, Iran reverts to UNCLOS 1958. The key difference between the two conventions is that the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 1982 designates the Strait of Hormuz as an international strait, allowing for "transit passage." In contrast, UNCLOS 1958 refers to international straits with "innocent passage." The term "innocent passage" permits foreign vessels to navigate through a coastal state's territorial waters without prior authorization, provided their passage is considered "innocent," meaning it does not threaten the peace, good order, or security of the coastal state. Under the rules of UNCLOS 1958, Iran can enforce its domestic laws in the Iranian part of the Strait concerning: - Safety of navigation - Pollution prevention - Security and surveillance Iran asserts that the United States cannot enjoy the rights of "transit passage" as defined in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), arguing that the U.S. only has the right of "innocent passage" since it never ratified UNCLOS 1982. In response, the U.S. dismisses this claim, stating that "transit passage" has become a principle of "customary law." This means that if all countries adhere to a particular practice for decades, it becomes legally binding, regardless of whether the treaty has been ratified.

Pearl GTL has been hit – and is now offline. This cannot be understated. Pearl is not just another facility. It is the world’s largest gas-to-liquids plant, one of the most complex and capital-intensive energy projects ever built. Operated by Shell, it taps directly into Qatar’s North Field and converts gas into high-value liquid fuels at massive scale: • ~140,000 b/d of GTL products • ~120,000 b/d of NGLs and ethane This is not marginal supply. This is core, high-quality barrel substitution capacity. The project itself is enormous: – $19 billion capex – Fully integrated from offshore wells to export – Two GTL trains online since 2011 – One of Shell’s top three assets globally by value And now it’s offline. This is a structural hit, not a headline. What makes Pearl even more critical is not just scale – it’s what it produces and how it reaches the market. Shell’s downstream and global supply chain is a key advantage in monetising these specialised GTL products. Much of the base oil output feeds directly into Shell Lubricants, anchoring a high-margin value chain. The slate is unique: • ultra-clean diesel and kerosene • naphtha for petrochemicals • n-paraffins and premium base oils QatarEnergy also plays a central role in marketing, with years of experience placing GTL products into global markets. And Pearl is not just big – it is exceptionally reliable. Known for uniform, high-quality output, it has carved out premium niches: – aromatic-free fuels used in urban environments like the Paris Olympics – high-performance drilling fluids that helped Shell capture share in the US Take this offline, and you don’t just lose barrels. You lose specialised molecules, premium margins, and deeply integrated supply chains. At a time when LNG is disrupted, crude flows are constrained, and refining systems are under pressure, this removes one of the most sophisticated conversion hubs in the global energy system. The market is not just tightening. It is losing quality, flexibility, and resilience – all at once. 🛢️

🇨🇳 🇨🇺 The average Cuban consumes 60kg of rice every year. China just donated enough rice in ONE BATCH to feed all of Cuba for a whole month.

@worldwar_3__ @theepicmap Yes, an object. Probably a pickup truck. You know how they always explode in an accident.

@theepicmap SAUDI ARABIA: drone crashed into an object on the territory of the Samref oil refinery in western Saudi Arabia, the damage is being assessed, the Saudi Defense Ministry said. Samref is one of the leading refineries in the Middle East, processing more than 400,000 barrels per day

🫂

@theepicmap That would take all the world's nuclear weapons, which would be a good thing.

Because a decent chunk of Real Estate in this country relies on cheap gas. Its only accessible via car, and because of its low density its built far away from real job centers. This means that the value of these properties would tank if the price of gas/energy rises to the point where commuting from these places costs more than the saved value of moving out here to own these homes

According to Lloyd's List direct talks with Tehran are underway with India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia and China regarding an IRGC administered maritime corridor between Qeshm Island and Larak Island in Iranian waters. Importantly, initial reporting indicates that the IRGC has already begun extracting rent for the SoH maritime workaround from tankers it registers and approves. One reported case is understood by Llyods' sources to have involved a payment of $2 million for 'safe' passage in the maritime scheme. At least nine ships have transited the emerging SoH reroute which relies on IRGC Naval authorities stationed on Larak Island for visual confirmation, per LL's report. For the full report: Meade, R., Diakun, B., & Raana, T. (Mar 18, 2026) Iran establishes ‘safe’ shipping corridor for approved and paid for transits. Lloyd's List lloydslist.com/LL1156656/Iran… Richard Meade @Lloydslisted Bridget Diakun @bridget_diakun Tomer Raanan @tldraanan

@policytensor "Stealing horses" is a German / Polish and I believe Hungarian expression, e.g., "Mit ihm kann man Pferde stehlen," which I would translate as, with him, you could dare to do things. 8:05 from Toby Esterhase in this video youtube.com/watch?v=Oer2Lo…

Space Force failed to issue a decay notice for VAST's Haven Demo, which was removed from orbit on Feb 5. It's still in the US satellite catalog as 'in orbit'.

And hand it over to the Army.

@svpino Sounds like the American press.

Claude is the perfect complement for me: Whenever I have a question I can't answer, I ask Claude, and it gives me the perfect answer every time. But as soon as I ask Claude something I do know, the answer is usually horseshit.

Don’t use a calculator until you can do the math on your own. Don’t vibe code until you can code – and debug and maintain code – on your own. It’s that simple.

@GaryMarcus I've always felt that, like a lawyer in court, you should never ask a computer a question you don't already know the answer to. Not "know" as in exactly to 14 digits, but know as in, it's going to be order 1, and not order 10^10.

I wrote this week about how satellite images of the Middle East are drying up, as American firms clamp down for fear of aiding Iranian targeting. That is thickening the fog of war & making OSINT harder. Some Russian & Chinese firms are filling the gap. economist.com/middle-east-an…

Confirming Nunki as the closest core collapse progenitor candidate to the Sun: arxiv.org/abs/2603.17011 -> it's a pair of 6 M_Sun stars at 69 parsec that will merge into a 10 M_Sun star and thus end as a supernova.

So Iran has hypersonic missiles, cluster munitions, the most advanced, war ready and cost efficient drone model on the planet and they've effectively been fighting 6 countries at once for 3 weeks with a yearly budget of $10 billion. and we're supposed to believe they never figured out how to build nuclear weapons? Nonsene. If Iran wanted a nuclear weapon, they'd have one. They don't and never did. Joe Kent's telling the truth, they literally voted against developing them in 2004. "Iran must NEVER get a nuclear weapon" is the "Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction" of 2026. This entire is treasonous and based on a total lie.