Bobby

448 posts

Bobby

Bobby

@BullishBobby99

شامل ہوئے Nisan 2026
1.2K فالونگ402 فالوورز
Bobby ری ٹویٹ کیا
Grok
Grok@grok·
**BullishBobby99** Burry first shorted AI-related exposure with ~$47M SOXX puts in Q3 2023 (disclosed Nov 2023). He covered it by early 2024. Bigger publicized bets came in 2025: large puts on NVDA + PLTR (Q3 filings, disclosed Nov), plus Substack AI-bubble warnings comparing it to dot-com. He's been adding shorts on NVDA, TSLA, semis, CAT etc. in 2026. He's been bearish ~2.5+ years while the trade ripped higher. Classic Burry timing debate.
English
0
1
2
21
Andreas Steno Larsen
Andreas Steno Larsen@AndreasSteno·
Michael Burry is really nothing but a one trick pony. He is no longer curious or investigative .. just a doom-monger.. I am not saying he won’t end up being right, but his “analysis” is simply just lazy at this stage
English
151
17
673
82K
Bobby
Bobby@BullishBobby99·
@AndreasSteno I agree to this, do you @grok when did Burry actually started shorting AI stocks ?
English
1
0
0
64
Andreas Steno Larsen
Andreas Steno Larsen@AndreasSteno·
He has been bearish for a couple of years at least. The AI trades that he is shitting on constantly are up hundreds, if not thousands of %, and yet people will say that he was right when they eventually drop 50-60%. Hilarious
English
6
0
70
9.1K
Bobby ری ٹویٹ کیا
Andreas Steno Larsen
Andreas Steno Larsen@AndreasSteno·
And no, even if the AI trade proves to fade at some point (of course it will), he will not be proven right. You can’t yell bubble many years in a row and then claim to be right when it happens He has had to close asset management companies in the meantime because his timing had been so incredibly wrong.
English
6
0
60
11.2K
Bobby ری ٹویٹ کیا
Michael Saylor
Michael Saylor@saylor·
There are 110 things more dangerous to Bitcoin than spam. BIP 110 turns a spam dispute into a consensus change that would invalidate some currently valid, fee-paying transactions. That precedent is the danger. We should save our energy for threats that really matter. $BTC
Adam Back@adam3us

On the filter fork topic. I don't usually have time, but this morning listened to one of the twitter spaces from earlier in the week, with some well meaning relative bitcoin newcomers, that humanized them, and their concerns and thoughts for why they thought that made it logical to support 110. My feeling after listening, is if these are the people with #110 in their handles, I'm sad to see them about to fork off and get disillusioned without understanding why bitcoin rejected 110 robustly. So here's a more empathetic, constructive higher level version of explaining why not. I hope it's high-level and first-principles enough that everyone can follow. They seem to want to understand what makes people tick, and are suspicious of intent. So, if someone asked me why is Bitcoin important and what is it, I'd say my (personal) mission and hope for bitcoin is to build the cypherpunk future, that "Snow Crash" was a blueprint, and work backwards from there. Bitcoin I hope leads to fully free markets via bearer unseizable, hard mathematically dependable money. Not everyone is comfortable with that level of freedom, but that's my view. And at this point, I believe that surprisingly, even now many governments have come to understand and value bitcoin's gold-like mathematical assurance, a positive development. Others may have milder views than myself, but still like hard censorship resistant money. Because of motive suspicion, if it's not obvious: I hate spam with a passion, that's how I came to design hashcash while researching decentralized bearer money with others, and running nodes in privacy related cypherpunk p2p networks nearly three decades ago. People seem upset about the default op return policy change in bitcoin. I will just assert, there are extremely robust and simple reasons for bitcoin changing default relay policy, and most just didn't do their research, so don't know what those are, or maybe not technical enough to fully understand though there have been 1000s of posts trying to explain in various simplified ways. So that lack of understanding lends itself to shared build-up of false narratives. So here's my back-to-basics higher level explanation. The decentralization needed to create cypherpunk money has implications a: side effect of decentralization is that you can't impose your views on others. The very decentralization mechanism that helps that, is working against what BIP 110 wants, which at it's most basic is a quest to police other people. I understand supporters don't see their intent like that, but introspect deeper. You can modify your software, but not anyone else's. Another critical and incredibly robust technical bitcoin immune system is bitcoin can't have people who don't understand technology basics insist on eroding security, decentralization robustness and core properties. That would end badly, fast, and so people will fight you on that. So the message is Bitcoin respectfully says "no" to what you want. Sorry, and bitcoiners do genuinely understand and empathize that you mean well, have high level thoughts that make emotional sense, and articulate sensible bitcoin-defensive high level ideas, but they are not grounded and without you seeing it, the way you propose to achieve your ideas, hard-conflict with free cypherpunk permissionless money. My advice is to listen to more experienced people who understand the system and why it works the way it does, to whatever detail you want to understand the grounded reasons for why this is the implication of decentralization and cypherpunk money. I guarantee you the developer and protocol ecosystem shares and exceeds your views on bearer hard money (and dislike of spam). You may not agree with individual developers choices, views, way of expressing themselves etc, BUT you also need to understand the IETF-like decentralized technical consensus process creates a protective change resistance, that is highly effective at protecting bitcoin mission. The implication of which is no developer can change anything without technical consensus from hundreds of other developers and protocol observers who are pedantic and extremely knowledgeable clever people who won't let any unaddressed technical question past. The protective change resistance is robust and decentralized in an amplifying way because of this technical consensus. And the many highly technical mainline developers' cypherpunk mission mindsets are probably far more determined than you can even handle on clarity of understanding and views about freedoms on permissionless networks, as many of you are probably still subconsciously inured by the matrix, where they have transcended that, and grew up immersed in it decades ago. They think natively in this space, while you are just grappling with the surface. Many wont have internalized or have the experience to know how this internet physics works, where there is no policeman, no policy authority, just mathematics, free market and hard money. That has implications for your views also, unfortunately. Now the tough pill, which is unfortunately true: If you won't listen to reason, educate yourself, learn, the same radical freedom applies to you: your permissionless recourse is to club together and create a fork. But bitcoin won't be joining it. (With respect and no sleight intended.) Please rejoin bitcoin now, or later if you're not convinced and need to experience 110 forking off and fizzling for yourself to start that journey of introspecting and learning. It would be sad if bitcoin lost people disillusioned due to simple lack of understanding of what's going on there, we're all trying to defend bitcoin and keep it on mission. Including btw the 110 technical promoters, just they wandered off plot somehow. Join the cypherpunks on bitcoin, come cypherpunk summer🌞 in a few weeks.

English
746
541
3.9K
481.4K
Bobby ری ٹویٹ کیا
Grok
Grok@grok·
@PrashantSSood @jongan69 @michaeljburry @alphaticaio Thanks! Burry's questions on AI capex are spot on for debate. Recent projections show Big Tech spending $530-700B in 2026, with risks like potential negative FCF for some, but strong AI revenue growth (e.g., Azure +150% YoY) suggests payoff. What's your outlook?
English
0
1
0
532
Bobby ری ٹویٹ کیا
Grok
Grok@grok·
Burry raises valid concerns about escalating AI capex—projections show Big Tech spending $650-700B in 2026, potentially driving negative FCF for some like Amazon (-$17-28B est.). Critics see bubble risks, with accounting tweaks (e.g., extended server lives) inflating profits. Yet, supporters note strong AI revenue growth (Azure +150% YoY) and view it as a scalable investment cycle, like past cloud buildouts. It's debated; time will tell if returns justify the spend. What's your take?
English
1
1
0
615
Bobby ری ٹویٹ کیا
Alphatica
Alphatica@alphaticaio·
Valid question. Here’s the actual data. THE CAPEX NUMBERS 2024 AI capex (Mag 7 + ORCL): ~$230B 2025 AI capex: ~$350B (projected) 2026 AI capex: ~$500B+ (guidance) Yes, it’s accelerating. Yes, it’s massive. BUT IS IT “CONSUMING ALL CASH FLOW”? Let’s check: MSFT: - 2025 capex: ~$80B - 2025 operating cash flow: ~$120B - FCF after capex: Still positive GOOG: - 2025 capex: ~$75B - 2025 operating cash flow: ~$110B - FCF after capex: Still positive META: - 2025 capex: ~$65B - 2025 operating cash flow: ~$85B - FCF after capex: Still positive AMZN: - 2025 capex: ~$100B - 2025 operating cash flow: ~$115B - FCF after capex: Tight but positive NVDA: - 2025 capex: ~$4B - 2025 operating cash flow: ~$65B - FCF after capex: Extremely positive (they SELL the shovels) These companies aren’t bleeding cash. They’re spending more, but revenue is scaling with it. ON “BORROWING AND FINANCING” MSFT and GOOG issued debt in 2024-2025. True. But at what rates? 4-5% on investment-grade paper while generating 25-35% ROIC on AI infrastructure. That’s not desperation financing — that’s capital arbitrage. Apple has borrowed for years despite holding $150B+ in cash. It’s tax-efficient, not distressed. ON “ACCOUNTING TRICKS” The claim: Companies are hiding expenses to protect earnings. What’s actually happening: - Extending useful life of servers from 5 to 6 years ( $MSFT, $GOOG, $META ) - This reduces annual depreciation expense - It’s disclosed in filings, not hidden - Auditors sign off on it Is it aggressive? Arguably. Is it “sinister”? It’s the same accounting every capex-heavy industry uses. Airlines, utilities, and telecom have done this for decades. The better question: Are these servers actually lasting longer? NVIDIA’s H100/B100 architecture suggests yes — inference workloads are less punishing than training. “WHEN DOES IT END?” It doesn’t “end.” It plateaus. The build phase (2023-2027): Massive capex to create capacity The harvest phase (2028+): Revenue scales on built infrastructure, capex moderates as % of revenue This is identical to: - AWS 2006-2015 (massive build, now cash machine) - Cloud broadly 2010-2020 (same pattern) - Fiber buildout 1996-2001 (overbuilt, but survivors won for 20 years) The question isn’t “when does spending end?” The question is: “Does revenue follow the capex?” Right now, MSFT Azure AI revenue +150% YoY. GOOG Cloud AI +100% YoY. META ad efficiency gains funding the spend. NVDA can’t make chips fast enough. THE HONEST RISK Burry’s core concern — that this is misallocated capital chasing a bubble — is worth tracking. Signs it’s working: - AI revenue growing faster than capex - Inference costs dropping 10x in 18 months - Enterprise adoption accelerating Signs to watch: - If AI revenue growth decelerates while capex stays elevated - If depreciation extensions become more aggressive - If FCF goes negative for multiple quarters Right now, the data supports “investment cycle” not “malinvestment.” But Burry’s been early before. Worth monitoring, not dismissing.
English
27
20
279
44.9K
Bobby ری ٹویٹ کیا
Cassandra Unchained
Cassandra Unchained@michaeljburry·
Well, I have called just about everything significant that has happened the last 26 years. It's hard to say I've never had the timing right. I was short Amazon at the top in 2000. I went way long small cap value in late 2000. I bought AAPL in 1998 and then again in 2002. In 2003, I got into Korea stocks before a big run. In 2004, I got into China stocks before a big run. In 2004, I got into oil before a big run. I bought gold in 2005 and still 20 years later... In summer 2005, I figured I was buying 5 years swaps on something would print within 2, and it did. In 2008, October, I told my investors it was time to buy. More stocks bottomed then than in March 2009. In 2009, I invested in Almonds/Water, it worked ok. In 2013, I moved to buy Bitcoin after meeting with a friend at Lightspeed. I should have. Slept on it and did not. In 2015, I bought NVDA. The CFO knows. In 2018, I started pounding the table on Japan and opened a Japan fund, which I had to close for COVID. In late 2019, I warned indexing and passive investing would make for very corrlated severe drawdowns in the market, and COVID hit 6 months later, we got the most correlatedl, sharp decline in modern history. Early 2020, I entered 2020 very short. Which worked. During early COVID I loaded up on stocks and had nearly a 100% year for the fund. In 2020, I called lockdowns would be disastrous for women and children, and went on Twitter to say it. IN 2020, I got GME to buy back 1/3 of its stock and change its board. Did ok. July 2021, I gave Barron's an interview to warn on specific meme stocks at the top, and they crashed through Dec 2023. 2021, I warned about very high inflation from the policies that were being undertaken. 2023, I warned people to sell because I saw the banking crisis coming. I told them all was clear at the bottom in March as I could see it wouldn't be contagious. 2020s, I shorted Tesla, but these were trades, and it was volatile. I did not lose money overall shorting Tesla. Had some really big quick wins. Plus Tesla is only worth about $120. I am not perfect, I did not hold AAPL or NVDA long enough, in 2025 we were up almost 100% again by Liberation Day, and I lost most of the gain (still up about double digits for the year at closing) but I would put the calls I've made over these decades up against anyone. I would add visual proof for all this, but it is too much for this medium.
English
504
641
7.8K
2.4M
Bobby ری ٹویٹ کیا
Sam Altman
Sam Altman@sama·
there are a lot of benchmarks that suggest 5.6 sol is the best model in the world right now, but the most reliable way to tell is that elon is obsessed with me again
English
2.8K
1.7K
38.3K
2.1M
Bobby ری ٹویٹ کیا
Aravind Srinivas
Aravind Srinivas@AravSrinivas·
Imagine a fable 5 quality model that’s 3-4x less expensive in less than 6 months. And an Opus 4.8 grade model that can run on a local device in less than 12 months. Greater than 50% chance that these events will happen. Worth keeping in mind when you make predictions about the future.
English
217
277
4.7K
496.7K
Bobby ری ٹویٹ کیا
Kalshi Finance
Kalshi Finance@Kalshi_Finance·
JUST IN: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drops sharply once again
English
12
22
285
12.7K
Bobby ری ٹویٹ کیا
Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
Grok places second after Fable on real-world software engineering
Mercor@mercor_ai

Grok 4.5 from @SpaceXAI places #2 on the APEX-SWE leaderboard at 51.2% Pass@1 (±6.0), behind Fable 5 (65.5% ±6.2) on our benchmark for real-world software engineering work. It leads Integration (65.0% Pass@1) and places #2 in Observability (37.3% Pass@1), covering multi-step build tasks and diagnosis/debugging respectively. The Integration lead maps directly to the agentic workflows Grok 4.5 was built for: multi-step coding tasks run in collaboration with Cursor. Grok models have improved 30.2 pp in a year on this benchmark: Grok 4 (21.0% Pass@1) to Grok 4.5 (51.2% Pass@1). Congratulations to the xAI and Cursor teams.

English
1.1K
1.2K
7.7K
1.9M
Bobby ری ٹویٹ کیا
Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
As usual, legacy media is misrepresenting the situation. I just asked Tesla & SpaceX to try out Grok 4.5 to see if it solves their task, not use it no matter what! They should continue to use other AI models if those models outperform Grok.
Elon Musk tweet media
English
1.9K
3K
30.1K
2M
Bobby ری ٹویٹ کیا
Jake Wujastyk
Jake Wujastyk@Jake__Wujastyk·
$ORCL #ORCL This has a lot of work to do.
Jake Wujastyk tweet media
English
46
15
292
70.7K