Cathy Gwin

As top U.S. officials consider the resumption of explosive nuclear weapons testing, it is critical to remember that this would be an unnecessary, unwise, and unwelcome move. yahoo.com/news/articles/…

There are many things one could say about this proposal. I’ll offer three observations. 1. Iran is highly unlikely to agree to these conditions (and if it did, that should give us pause). The reasons are many, but a big one is that the points laid out here are essentially trying to force terms of surrender on a country that does not believe it’s been defeated. 1/

Join me and my @NTI_WMD colleagues for a virtual discussion next Thursday at 11am about the implications of the war for Iran’s nuclear program.

“I think Congress has defaulted on its responsibility under the War Powers Act and, more important, under the Constitution,” Sam Nunn tells @MurphyAJC. “Trump is not the first one to more or less disregard the War Powers Act, but he’s gone much further than that.”

Sam Nunn spent decades in the Senate during tumultuous times. I talked to him @ Iran, Congress and the nuclear threat. “It was a legitimate reason (to go to war)…Was war the best way, the only way? I don’t think so. I think diplomacy was still possible.” ajc.com/politics/2026/…

Disney’s 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘓𝘶𝘤𝘬 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘐𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘩 reminds us that failing to safeguard a powerful asset—whether a magical lucky coin or advanced tech—can lead to disaster. Strengthening AIxBio governance is about accelerating innovation and preventing harm. nti.org/risky-business…

“Even if Pres Trump declares victory tomorrow & points to the damage done to Iran’s conventional military, the fact of the matter is you have a more hardline regime in place w/key ingredients for a nuclear weapon,” @NTI_WMD's @BrewerEricM tells @mawilner latimes.com/politics/story…

Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—close to weapons-grade in its purity and buried underground after last June’s American airstrikes—remains as a potential pathway to a rapid nuclear breakout. “The bad news is you would leave Iran potentially in a position where it can produce nuclear weapons, and you also leave Iran potentially with more motive to produce nuclear weapons,” said Eric Brewer, an expert at the Nuclear Threat Initiative who served in senior nuclear-related roles in the White House and the U.S. intelligence community. “That’s a big risk.” @BrewerEricM wsj.com/world/middle-e…

If the U.S. ends the conflict with… A significantly degraded Iranian military A wounded and weakened but seriously pissed off regime with a more hardline leader in place And a stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and centrifuges in deeply buried tunnels You don’t have success. You have an Iran with the motive and means to get a nuclear weapon as quickly as possible.

"We have had a few four-star women generals, and there are more coming behind them, but it's not as common as you would think, given that women are 50-51 percent of the population," said @cwormuth in a conversation with Senior Fellow @RobinsonL100. cfr.org/event/building…

I want to thank the @ajc for giving me the chance to write a weekly column from DC for the past 5 years. This is my final column. Give it a read at the link below. You can still find my work at jamiedupree.substack.com

Not good: “Mr. Foster said after the classified briefing on Tuesday that the administration did not answer whether it had a strategy for dealing with the problem [of Iran’s highly enriched uranium] when it started the war. ‘We did not hear any plan from the administration to seize it, destroy it or make it subject to international inspection.’”

It’s incredibly surprising & disappointing to see the US take this position, @NTI_WMD's Eric Brewer tells @laurnorman. We should be unequivocal that any attacks...that could put at risk the ability of nuclear power plants to operate safely are off limits. wsj.com/world/for-the-…

Former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, who served during the Obama administration, warned that Iran could have accumulated "a lot of nuclear know-how and knowledge and technology." "If the regime collapses and there is not continuous security, the concern is that knowledge, scientists, engineers and materials could find their ways into other hands ... I don't believe we know where that material is."

A major problem for Trump is that the current Iranian leadership is no more likely to agree to U.S. demands on the nuclear issue than Khamenei, but they ultimately might be more willing to pursue nuclear weapons. Khamenei, by most estimates, used his his veto power to block what appeared to be growing calls within the system for the bomb. If Trump declares victory now, Iran’s new leadership will be battered and bruised but will have demonstrated they can survive the worst, and may be more convinced than ever that nuclear weapons can prevent a repeat of Epic Fury.

“Iran’s nuclear material and technology could be stolen by non-state actors—or simply go missing,’ warned @NTI_WMD. “It is imperative that the United States has a comprehensive, actionable plan to prevent this scenario.”

A few quick (and non-exhaustive) thoughts on the implications of Khamenei's death and where things potentially go from here. 1. Who will govern Iran in his absence? The constitution calls for a three person council (President, head of the Judiciary, and a cleric from the Guardian Council). It's unclear if the President and head of the Judiciary are alive. The head of Iran's Defense Council was reportedly killed, as was the Defense Minister and head of the IRGC. So too was Khamenei's son, sometimes rumored as a potential replacement. This is not just an interesting process question or one that matters for the long-term. Iran is engaged in a fight for its survival today. It has immediate decisions to make. 2. How will this early U.S. and Israeli success in eliminating Khamenei and Iran's top leadership influence their strategy? Will Trump be tempted to declare victory sooner rather than later? Or will he target their replacements should they not offer immediate capitulation on U.S. terms? The reaction of the Iranian people (do they take to the streets, or stay at home?) and the regime's response to any protests will likely also shape U.S./Israeli decisionmaking. 3. What will this mean for the nuclear issue? Khamenei may have been the only person standing between Iran and a bomb. A future leader (or leaders) might make totally different choices.

“The inevitable chaos that would accompany any regime change could present the most serious nuclear security challenge since the fall of the Soviet Union.”

Today, the United States began a major military campaign targeting Iran’s political leadership, nuclear program, and conventional military forces, with the goal of collapsing the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is too soon to predict the trajectory of this war and its consequences. Whether or not the United States and Israel succeed in removing the regime, the ongoing major combat operations introduce serious nuclear security and proliferation risks. Iran likely retains hundreds of kilograms of highly enriched uranium that can be used in a bomb, stockpiles of advanced centrifuges, and other sensitive capabilities.  If the regime collapses or is overthrown and security breaks down, Iran’s nuclear material and technology could be stolen by non-state actors—or simply go missing. Iran’s technical experts would also be attractive hires for aspiring proliferators. Washington will face a number of challenges because of this war in the coming weeks. One of the most consequential challenges is the possibility that Iran’s nuclear materials and technology are no longer secured if the regime collapses and instability follows. It is imperative that the United States has a comprehensive, actionable plan to prevent this scenario. Whether or not there is regime change in Iran, the international community should insist that Iran allow the return of international inspectors immediately after the cessation of military operations to begin the arduous process of accounting for nuclear materials.

Lots to keep an eye on during this turbulent moment in Iran, including nuclear materials and technologies. nti.org/news/statement…