ChartWizardsNFT
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ChartWizardsNFT
@ChartWizardsNFT
Commemorating the trading career of Market Wizard @peterlbrandt | monthly & special situation reports @jonbking | https://t.co/WTIernMqhf










CURRENT VIEW ON $BTC Controversial take, but curious what people think… Given the price action in $BTC, I wonder two things: 1. Has $BTC topped shorter-term? 2. How compressed will prospective return be over the coming years? We had an absolutely beautiful setup in Bitcoin. Great consolidation. All-time highs. Tons of bullshit treasury purchases to fuel the fire. Positive regulatory news. Every trader I know (including me for the idiots that think I’m a permabear) was leveraged long to the hilt. And yet we could only get two real days of price expansion. At this point, who is the marginal buyer? Who isn’t long on a setup like that? Structurally, I’ve felt $BTC will go higher but that the massive returns are gone. As an asset reaches mass adoption, realized vol compresses as do returns. There is less price discovery to occur. It’s just basic market structure theory. Every cycle in $BTC, the returns have been about a magnitude less. And the failure of this breakout makes me think $BTC is largely approaching the era of market returns (market single-year returns/vol can be far higher than most think though). It didn’t take much imagination to see a quick move to $130k, $140k, $150k (the people who think $1m is around the corner are high on hopium IMO). Yet here we are. I always then end up wondering the second deriv… if returns compress and approach market returns, how many people would still hold bitcoin? The data doesn’t lie. Most holders of $BTC are in it solely for speculative purposes. People are looking for 1000%+ returns or even 100% returns. What happens to the average holder if we experience years of traditional market returns? What happens to the average holder if all of a sudden $ETH or some other coin starts to offer higher prospective returns? I have zero idea the future. Not a forecast. But certainly questions worth thinking about. @TheFlowHorse @skyquake_1 @TedHZhang












