Climate Resource

This means that momentum needs to build fast. In order to position itself as a responsible leader in the lead up to COP31, Australia needs to both rapidly reduce its current emissions, and set ambitious new targets in line with the science.

And it makes little difference if Australia continues using a 2005 baseline for these targets, or makes use of the COP28 2019 baseline. This is because Australia’s emissions have changed very little over the past two decades ☹️

Now that the dust is settling on COP28, and with Australia pushing its bid for COP31 in 2026, let’s assess Australia’s existing climate targets and consider what it needs to do to show leadership.

Entering the 1.5C world, it's time for a fossil fuel exit. Phase-in of renewables is key, but only replaces fossil fuel (emissions), if married with strong energy efficiency and dedicated coal, oil and gas phase-out policies. Full briefing: climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs

The latest temperature assessments of the NDCs and LT-LEDS pledges by countries - and how they fair against the Paris Agreement temperature goals? Surprise: We are still quite far off 1.5C. Here an overview of all the main studies on it. See more at: climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs

Read the full briefing, and see our comprehensive factsheets, which show historical and projected emissions for 196 countries, here: climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs

....with progress towards stronger NDCs stagnating, COP28's success will likely be measured by whether an equally decisive agreement is reached on the phase-out of fossil fuels. In particular, phase-out of coal should reach at least 90% by 2035 at the latest.

Today Climate Resource released its 2023 briefing on likely future global temperature rise, with comparisons of our projections to recent assessments by UNEP, UNFCCC, the IEA and others - COP28: Entering a 1.5°C world, it’s time for a fossil fuel exit - climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs

@UNEP @UNFCCC @IEA @climateactiontr And check out our comprehensive factsheets, which show historical and projected emissions for 196 countries, updated for 2023 - climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs

Stay tuned for an extended briefing of our findings and analysis, as well as a comprehensive comparison of our temperature assessment in comparison with assessments included in the @UNEP Gap Report, the @UNFCCC Synthesis Report, the @IEA's WEO, and @climateactiontr.

This week, as the world meets at COP28, Climate Resource has updated its assessment of projected temperature rise based on country targets submitted to the UNFCCC, and the likelihood of meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. Our key findings and analysis in a short thread -