EDF Hobbies

@RexVulpes @DonMiami3 True, that market has been manipulated like never before but gold isn't a consumable. Oil burns and has to be traded daily, that spot price is going to meet paper and argue for a while and spot price will win ... again.

@DonMiami3 Precious metals traders be like:

Oil traders on Fintwit need to get a grip. We’ve gone from $50 to $115 and to $90, of course they’re going to manipulate it, look at what the end game is of any massive oil spike FCF at any E&P, service provider, you name it - at $90bbl is unmatched By shorting futures - they’re only setting up an inevitably bigger move on the backside of stupidity, the barrels can’t be printed - ceasefire or not, the barrels aren’t there Becoming ‘ZA’ is an outcome that is out of anyone’s control

@Izraelicious @BarakRavid fckin troll

@BarakRavid It would be seriously stupid to block sales to Israel and lose what Israel gives back to the US in return.

🚨40 out of 47 Senate Democrats voted tonight against supplying bulldozers to the Israeli military 🚨36 out of 47 Senate Democrats voted against supplying bombs to IDF 🚨Not one Democratic Senator considering running for president voted tonight in favor of arms sales to Israel

@clashreport 10k troops moving into the area doesn't say any of that

There are growing signs that talks between United States and Iran might finally be heading toward a deal, with Pakistan acting as a go-between. Pakistani officials believe they've made real progress, shuttling messages back and forth and trying to bridge gaps that caused earlier negotiations in Islamabad to fail. Source: Al Jazeera

@geekopediax @steve_hanke I'm thinking minimum we're gong to see 115 oil having to be paid at port or docking. For some reason spot prices are being beat down for the last couple of weeks off the 140 highs. Most likely based off lies from the Epstein Admin about escalation. 10k troops sounds like war

@DBatDad @steve_hanke Agreed. Bullwhip alone drags normalization to 2+ months even in a perfect Gulf. That $133 physical vs $99 futures gap is the canary – supply chains don’t flip overnight. Paper market’s in for a rude awakening.

The futures price for Brent crude is around $99/bbl. But physical oil (Dated Brent) is trading closer to $133/bbl. THAT’S AN UNUSUALLY LARGE PRICE GAP. THE FUTURES MARKET WILL EVENTUALLY BE MUGGED BY REALITY, THE PRICE WILL SURGE, AND THE GAP WILL BE CLOSED.

@Illuminate_Iman @unusual_whales We agree, reality is Iran was making money before The Pedophiles "blockade" and their making money from China after the blockade.

@unusual_whales Two sailings don’t change reality: Hormuz is a controlled chokepoint, not a free passage.

At least two US-sanctioned, Iran-linked ships made their way through the Strait of Hormuz and into the Persian Gulf on Thursday, taking what may be a new route from the UAE, per Bloomberg

@Dmytro_Lebid @NoLimitGains IThe bombing has stopped, that doesn't mean oil is flowing IE there's been no de-escalation

You can't even call it a mistake. The current market is like reading tea leaves; it's entirely dependent on the geopolitical agenda and whatever is going on in Trump’s head. With yesterday's ATH $SPY / $SPX / $QQQ, we could have just as easily seen the dip continue if de-escalation hadn't happened. There’s zero guarantee this won't start all over again.

I have to admit, I was wrong. I wasn’t expecting the market to recover this fast, especially with the war still ongoing. I thought the market would either 1) stay low for a while or 2) drop a bit further. Called the BTC top at 126K, the ZEC short at the exact top to the penny, and bought oil right before the war started, among other things. It’s all public. But here we are. One wrong prediction. For those wondering, I never shorted the market. I didn’t lose money. In fact, I made money on the recovery because I bought a decent position in MSFT under its 200 WMA, and I’m very happy I did. Your goal should always be to be positioned for both scenarios so you can benefit in either direction. Keep enough cash, or cash equivalents earning yield, so that if the market drops, you can buy low. And keep enough positions to also profit on the way up. Not to brag, but with my size, capital protection is and always will be the number one priority. I understand that if your portfolio is just a few thousand bucks, we probably have different views, and that’s perfectly fine.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ I sold the S&P near 7,000, I publicly bought oil companies and sold for a 20% profit, and I bought MSFT near the bottom. In my books, that’s a win.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ And yes, I’m still bearish. I trust the data, not some temu trader on X. My view hasn’t changed once and I will stick to the plan no matter what. The data suggests we are very close to a cycle top. And every “this time is different” comment I read only increases my conviction that it is, so I would like to thank you for that. Feel free to ignore my warnings, we don’t know each other after all. But if you decide to deploy all your capital right now, just know that you’re gambling in the most overvalued market in the history of humankind.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Thank you, NL.

@broodloper @NoLimitGains Powel legally doesn't have to leave

@NoLimitGains You're bearish at a time when the new FED chairman that gets installed next month has only one mission: Cut rates with 50 bps............AT LEAST

@_Tumbawumba @spectatorindex "they will be seen as the aggressors." The whole planet earth understands Iran didn't blow up a school full of Children that was US and Israel

@spectatorindex Pressure from China has worked in the past. Further blockades by the Iranians will not work to their advantage. Not this time because they will be seen as the aggressors. US blockade is currently having a positive impact. Iran will be weary.

China's foreign minister calls on Iran to allow for 'normal navigation' in the Strait of Hormuz.

@RpsAgainstTrump The level of evil coming out of the Epstein Administration is overt and in everyone's face. Only MAGA Media keeps news like this from their cult members to maintain some level of support. Information silos are a hellava drug

The Trump administration has abruptly canceled an $11 million contract with Catholic Charities to shelter and care for migrant children who enter the U.S. alone miamiherald.com/news/local/imm…

@sempsictyranis @JessicaTarlov Iranians wont say because BB keeps killing them. Either way Iran has the upper hand and oil is not flowing with nothing available to make Iran stop disrupting oil flow. They're still getting paid by the Chinese This whole war is hot ass garbage.

@JessicaTarlov Question just who is negotiating with whom in Iran. Seems to me their whole top 2 tiers are deceased.

Watching the victory lap on our blockade of the blockade is something to behold. We moved the goalposts, downgraded to “skinny goals,” and now Trump is packaging that as a huge win. We asked Iran for 20 years of no enrichment and they’re offering 5. Our time is spent containing a crisis we helped create in the first place. And the messaging? All over the place. One minute their nuclear program is “obliterated,” the next it’s weeks away from multiple bombs. Which is it? And if we walk away now, we’re not getting regime change—we’re leaving behind a more hardened, more extreme leadership than before.

@SuperBeast1239 @Xking332 Because they are democracies and their people see Israel and the US started this shit they'll demand our blood for finishing it. This war is hot ass garbage from the start

@Xking332 Israel should send about 50,000+ troops first, then UAE, Pakistan, Britain, Spain, France, Italy, Germany…. All the countries that could get nuked or need that oil. 🇺🇸 won’t & doesn’t need that oil.

Dubai is collapsing. Things are worse than they were before the ceasefire. UAE leaders are still pressuring America for a ground invasion of Iran. They believe the only solution is a total regime change. Their deputy prime minister says anything less than that is a threat to the world. America deployed another 4400 soldiers to Dubai yesterday. If the second round of talks doesn't go well, we could see things escalate. 450 hotels shut down in Dubai last week. The cash flow has dried up. Tomorrow their most iconic hotel Burj Al Arab is closing for 18 months. Tourism is struggling. If this collapse keeps going at this rate, the UAE will most likely abandon their zero tax economic model. This is Dubai's worst phase ever.

@Vineethb24 @Xking332 If half is true that's still 100% bad

half of this is straight up false ... Burj Al Arab closing for 18 months, 450 hotels shutting down, UAE abandoning zero tax? None of this has any verified source and Dubai's tourism numbers have actually been hitting record highs in 2025-26, don't share unverified doom posts as facts 🙏

@jkmccrann @Xking332 They weren't and this hot ass garbage administration doesn't have a real plan other than more hot ass garbage.

@Xking332 As expected - this was all part of Trump’s Plan - I’m surprised the UAE were supportive of this plan.

@justinmmathews @Byron__3 @Xking332 Looking at facts that are not in dispute this doesn't even make half way sense. Iran had the ability to disrupt oil at this level for years and never did it until their leadership and their families were killed. The catalyst to Iran's current actions are US and Israel attacks

@Byron__3 @Xking332 It’s the number 1 global sponsor of terror and constantly threatens to eradicate Israel. Iran is the exact definition of a bully but through terrorism

@ysglok @steve_hanke Yep due to lies by the Epstein Administration while Iran is not signaling any changes in behavior. Oil is not flowing even at half the rate it was pre bombing

@steve_hanke 市场预期现货会下降

@tarantoga3 @steve_hanke After 4 - 5 months at this rate seeing that's how long it took in 73 and 79, in between time it was just high ass prices and world economic chaos. Any elasticity in the market will just prolong everyone paying high prices

@steve_hanke Or the price of the physical will go down…

@MarketOpium @steve_hanke Demand destruction is 5 months out "The 1979 disruption followed a similar "lag" pattern to the 1973 event, but the demand destruction was far more aggressive and permanent. While it also took roughly four to five months for consumption to show a significant downward trend,"

futures aren't being "mugged" they're pricing in demand destruction. last time contango was this steep was march 2020 and futures were right — physical collapsed to meet them. the gap closed alright, just in the wrong direction. $99 might be the smart money here not the dumb money

@geekopediax @steve_hanke This and bullwhip effect ALONE sets oil normalization out 2 months if everything was perfect in the Persian Gulf

@steve_hanke The infrastructure problem hasnt been priced in yet by the markets x.com/geekopediax/st…

@AdiSurreyEnergy @steve_hanke That's if someone believes Iran will stop disrupting oil out of the SoH just because The Pedophile leaves. That's no were near reality, if Iran's demands are not meet there's nothing *FORCING* Iran's hand here ... nothing. "bombing" hasn't worked at all See Houthis

@steve_hanke These are unusual times. The biggest oil shock in history. If the crisis continue, a steep backwardation between physical and futures deliveries will remain. Market is working fine. Let's not predict what you do not understand.

@Mokele_mbembe @academic_la I don't see China cutting us off ... at first but yeah, I don't see a full cooking war level supply chain. IRR call ups and contract extensions are back door drafts, same as what Bush 2 did in Iraq.

@academic_la They can say they're going to do this but it's not actually going to happen, because the whole procurement and manufacturing chain is corrupt and fundamentally broken. A draft is also politically and logistically impossible.

The United States is on track for an unprecedented level of militarization since the Vietnam War. The signs that the US is preparing for global war are numerous and highly disturbing: 1) The Pentagon has been holding talks with executives from companies like GM, Ford, GE Aerospace, and Oshkosh about using their factory capacity and personnel to boost production of munitions, drones, and other military equipment. Defense Secretary Hegseth has framed this as putting manufacturing on a "wartime footing." 2) In December, eligible men ages 18 to 26 will be automatically registered for the Selective Service draft pool, a change included in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act that Trump signed in December 2025. The Trump administration has refused to rule out reinstating the draft. 3) The administration is requesting $1.5 trillion for defense in fiscal year 2027. The first time base budget defense spending has hit the $1 trillion mark, representing a 28% increase. The OMB director described this as necessary for "paradigm-shifting investments" to allow the industrial base to "double and triple capabilities." 4) Trump signed an executive order renaming the Department of Defense with the secondary title "Department of War," and Hegseth personally replaced the signage at the Pentagon. 5) The Pentagon released an updated policy in March reframing veterans in the Individual Ready Reserve from a last resort to a "mobilization asset," stating that deliberate plans should account for IRR use, "especially in plans for full mobilization." Task & Purpose Congress also directed the military to conduct a 21st-century mass mobilization exercise. The first since a 1978 Cold War exercise. The Trump mania for wars, which started with Venezuela, continued through Iran and will likely target Cuba next, is now beginning the gear up for World War 3. The enemy picked out is clear. China.