Jessica Tarlov

This is a mess. The goalposts around what “Operation Epic Fury” is going to accomplish are moving constantly to accommodate whoever is in front of the cameras. Trump claiming that we didn’t expect Iran to retaliate doesn’t hold up. Iran warned the UN weeks earlier, and experts flagged the risk before the strikes. You can debate whether the decision to go to war was right or wrong. But the idea that Iran’s response—or threats like closing the Strait of Hormuz—came out of nowhere just isn’t supported by the evidence. And now we’re paying for our hubris.

Tough camera angle.

I’m sorry, but this is legit hilarious. If only he wasn’t the president and just a character on TV. We could laugh our heads off without any sense of unease, dread, or embarrassment.

I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…

Well, I did not anticipate this: *BESSENT: US MAY UNSANCTION IRANIAN OIL THAT’S ON WATER

SCOOP!!! Trump administration considering deploying thousands of additional troops to the Middle East as the military prepares options for the possible next phase of the Iran war. One option for securing the Strait of Hormuz includes deploying troops to Iranian shores. w/@idreesali114

@AlanaKStewart @TheFive You’re conflating photo ID and what the SAVE Act actually requires, but you knew that. And did it intentionally.

Republicans aren’t the one that are lying @JessicaTarlov. We watch you spew out disinformation every day on @TheFive. Have you not noticed that 85% of Americans want voter ID to protect our elections? That includes minorities as well. It’s insulting to black Americans to imply that they’re not intelligent enough to get a voter ID. Same with women! You have to have ID to get in the building where you work @FoxNews. #saveact #voterID

WARNER: You omitted a paragraph about Midnight Hammer 'obliterating' Iran's nuclear capability that's in your written report from your oral opening GABBARD: I recognized the time was running long WARNER: So you chose to omit the parts that contradicts the president

It’s funny that the GOP even has to be concerned about Texas - it shouldn’t even be a consideration if they were doing a good job. The time for a “woke tweets” election is long gone. Especially when the Republican options are either corrupt and a philanderer or part of the old Republican guard that hasn’t delivered for Texans. James Talarico’s philosophy is simple: Texans have suffered under one party rule for too long. Plus his policies aren’t even leftwing! Public and private healthcare options. A fair immigration system and a secure border. Painting him as extreme won’t stick when his policies aren’t.

Is stagflation part of the Golden Age?

WSJ editorial board on SAVE America Act: “In the MAGA era, the bill could even marginally hurt the GOP. Kamala Harris in 2024 won college graduates and voters earning over $100,000 a year. Mr. Trump carried those with no degrees and lower salaries. Which coalition is most likely not to have passports and birth certificates handy?” wsj.com/opinion/save-a…

@DecodingFoxNews See no other possibility!

When asked what former presidents had talked to Trump about his decision to attack Iran Jessica Tarlov suggested that Trump was talking to himself.

Republicans are lying to the American people when they say the SAVE Act is a voter ID law—it’s a proof-of-citizenship requirement that would make voting harder, if not impossible, for a lot of people. Passports are expensive, documents don’t always match, and the process can be a mess (been there). We should be making voting easier, not adding more hurdles. Democrats can own this by proposing their own bill that accepts a range of IDs, and includes automatic voter registration and Election Day as a national holiday for starters.

Maybe even Trump will soon acknowledge affordability isn’t a hoax…

This article is compelling and smart. I’ve seen it forwarded around a lot. Let’s walk through why it’s wrong.  1. The author argues that Iran’s military infrastructure especially its drones and missiles are being systematically taken apart.  True. But in the aftermath who is going to keep it that way? After the 12 day war Israel and Trump declared Iran’s capacity to make war “obliterated” and set back for a generation. Less than a year later they went back to war because of how quickly Iran was rebuilding. This campaign is much more comprehensive, but the same problem still applies. How to avoid being stuck in the aftermath in a “mow the lawn” scenario where the US has to expend tremendous assets that could be directed elsewhere in the world - especially towards the Indopacific. And where the region operates at a new unstable normal where all previous taboos on military action are off. 2.  He argues that the nuclear infrastructure had to be disassembled because one president after another had just let Iran’s nuclear program grow. Not true. Obama had managed to dramatically and verifiably reduce Iran’s nuclear capacity through the JCPOA. Trump killed that. 3. He argues Iran is self harming by stopping its own oil from going through the Strait of Hormuz. This was always an assumption before the war, but they’ve managed to shut down the Strait for everyone else while still exporting 1 million bbls per day of their own stuff.  That makes this much more sustainable.  4. He Argues that Iran’s proxy networks are dramatically weakened. True, but also as we’ve learned from previous conflicts they will regenerate and it’s impossible to root them out with a military strategy alone if there is no political follow up to create a better alternative. That is why Israel is on the verge of a major campaign in Lebanon only a year and a half after supposedly setting back Hezbollah for a generation. These fights are costly Pyrrhic victories that will just need to be fought again and again and again unless there is a political strategy to consolidate victory which both Israel and the US have failed at since October 7th.  5. Finally, the author argues that we need to ignore the President’s own words about regime change and the Iranian people rising up and focus on what the military is doing.  But that’s not how war works. War is fought to achieve a political objective. If there is no clear objective set out by the political leadership it’s impossible to translate battlefield victories into a consolidated win.  By setting the bar at regime change Trump has made it extraordinarily hard for the US to be perceived as winning even if the military executes the plans. Perception is a big part of the battle in war. And again the costs are incredibly high. And as the author argues, the only way this works is if there is a plan to contain and keep Iran down in the aftermath. Do we have any faith in Trump to do that? Again that is going to be incredibly expensive and require a presence like what the US left in the Middle East after the first Gulf War to contain Saddam.  That’s something we could afford in 1991 when the US was a unipolar power. But not in 2026 when we have a real competitor in China that we need to manage.  aljazeera.com/amp/opinions/2…

Trump really made up this whole talking to a former President story without realizing there are only 4 living former Presidents.

Multiple Iranian sources including their Foreign Minster stating that the Trump admin is planting false stories to Axios reporters Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo about peace talks in order to manipulate oil and financial markets.

We are governed by complete morons.

Many people could make that case actually (and have)

It’s incredible to watch them concede every argument we’ve ever made in real time.