Derconomy

@wizy_brain @DanW8l5b @Gravitygunner14 Havertz must have been fouled a dozen times but wasn’t given a single free kick.

@DanW8l5b @Gravitygunner14 And you were unable to score even a single goal. Luckily for you, you were gifted a penalty.

Is he holding Declan’s leg??

@MrRBourne Complete straw man. Many economists? I don’t know of a single one who argued this.

Britain's free-market community has won the intellectual argument on the causes of the country's slow growth. Almost all serious analysts now say supply-side constraints in housing, energy, labour etc are a big drag on it. Remarkable really, given many economists spent the 2010s deluding themselves that more spending by the Department for Communities and Local Government and higher public sector pay was the route to growth. I guess when the country ran huge demand-side stimulus post-pandemic, it became obvious that it was the supply-side all along. But it took a long time to get there!

This is what Reeves needs to be focused on rather than groceries -which is reasonably competitive.

"Challenging Inequalities". Do buy it! @williamnhutton has just called it "one of the great works of social science this century". It is also according to @matthewsyed a "wonderfully clear and readable little book". Paul Collier: "a superb critique of British public policy"

This has really riled the Brexiteers on here who launch ad hominem attacks and then block!

This is of course why Starmer’s failure (and Sunak’s before him) to deliver modest welfare reform has been such a disaster. Johnson and May’s Brexit and Cameron’s triple lock put the UK on an unsustainable fiscal path but subsequent PM’s have failed to correct this. #r4today

@Footballera0 Lose to West Ham, and the Champions League isn’t happening either.

Most Arsenal fans were more worried about the WestHam match than this UCL final vs PSG.

@PeterMatza @CeeMacBee What makes you say that? Peter, you give the impression of someone who doesn’t actually know what econometrics is? I am still waiting for the list of econometrics papers she has authored?

@DERCONOMY @CeeMacBee OBE is rather more qualified than you old chum.

@PeterMatza So rather than answering the question you’re going for an ad hominem attack?

@DERCONOMY You're nobody chum.

@7Kiwi @asianick85 Key word offshore. Onshore was cheap and costs were falling. Effectively banning it stalled technological progress.

@asianick85 I don't think any other country has as much expensive offshore wind as Britain

New international energy price comparisons for the UK & EU are out today. The UK still has by far the highest industrial electricity prices.

@klaus_adam Suspect that should be GW - a large town would use this.

Das 🇩🇪 Energiewenden-Wunder:

Further to Blair. Literally every honest sensible person in all the main parties privately agrees with all these propositions: - welfare spending is too high and is throwing good people on the scrapheap - defence spending is too low - the triple lock is unsustainable - without cheap energy we cannot exploit the AI revolution - we should be investing in EVERY form of energy: renewables, nuclear and the North Sea - migration needs to be controlled to boost social cohesion and because the boats look like a huge failure of the state - any new relationship with the EU will be imposed on us until we are stronger and cannot involve the closeness some desire without freedom of movement - we are deeply embedded with America in ways which the public does not understand and cannot be told and however joyous it makes us feel to hate Trump, disengagement at the deep state level is not only wholly unrealistic but also undesirable - Whitehall needs a total overhaul so specific project expertise and political appointees can be brought in quickly Blair basically says all that. The one thing he doesn’t say and which the same group of people agree on is this and it’s something Blair left behind: - judges and quangos have too much power, are unaccountable and without redressing the balance in favour of parliament it is very difficult to do anything big fast - the bare minimum that needs to change in this regard is to reform judicial review and planning law so we can put building and economic growth ahead of newts and NIMBYs None of that above really ought to be up for discussion. It is all common sense but not one of our politicians will publicly say all of it Whatever you think of Blair, engage with what he’s saying not how he makes you feel. The bare minimum we should expect from any leader is that they have an analysis of the current situation and a plan to deal with it which is as coherent and realistic as his intervention. Pretty well every critique I’ve read so far has failed to meet this requirement. Over to Andy and Keir and Kemi and Nigel and Zack and all the others

Found a great clip, if anyone tries to say PGMOL like everyone hasn’t been reffed the same way this year (unlike last year with Liverpool) just post this then walk away. The cope don’t work 😂

The season Arsenal lost the league to Man City, it was just a two points difference. That same season, Brentford had an offside goal allowed against Arsenal and after the match, PGMO apologized that VAR forgot to draw the line. Imagine VAR forgetting to draw offside lines. Arsenal lost the chance of getting three points that day. That was just one case out of many that season. Here is the part that annoys me is you people were happy because it's Arsenal. We moved. That same season, Covasic got away with two nasty tackles. Even just one of those tackles deserved a red. Nothing was given. Michael Oliver later said he didn't want to change the tempo of the game. Arsenal drew. Jeremy Doku got away with his against Liverpool, and nobody saw an issue with it. Newcastle player scored a goal after it was out of play, we wailed, yet nothing happened. Trossard red card against Manchester City when he didn't hear a whistle, they laughed at us after the equaliser Martinelli second yellow in 2 minutes from throwing to tackle, no body answered us Declan Rice also got his fair share. When we used to complain about these things, we were called cry babies. We won't cry again. We'll just learn to be more dogged. After waiting in vain for Arsenal to crumble, you are now changing the narrative that Arsenal has been gifted the league by VAR. Hehe The transformer in my area is happy to embrace anyone that is pained.

@julianHjessop @PeterMatza Julian, I wasn’t aware you held yourself out to be an econometrician?

@DERCONOMY @PeterMatza You might want to try writing that one again... 😉

@PeterMatza Catherine McBride? 🤣 I doubt very much she has peer reviewed econometric papers.

@DERCONOMY briefingsforbritain.co.uk/brexit-trade-m…

@TheBarrenNorth @Sam_Dumitriu @BritainRemade @createstreets Usual response is “I am not against new homes just this is too tall and in the wrong place”. New York is famously a rubbish city for having tall buildings.

@DERCONOMY @Sam_Dumitriu @BritainRemade @createstreets potential for some 20,000 homes. It's no wonder house prices have become a national emergency. Buy-to-let has played a part in inflating housing costs as well.

This is exciting. British tram projects take longer and cost four times as much as they do in Germany. So Labour have announced a 'mass transit taskforce' (Fingleton for Trams). The taskforce includes David Milner (who co-wrote the @BritainRemade/@createstreets paper that revealed the huge cost gap.) And it looks like the Govt will devolve the Transport Works Act Order process so West Yorkshire can grant itself planning permission to build a tram in Leeds (without asking central govt). This is a key ask of @BritainRemade. (Credit to @Ben_A_Hopkinson, @JP_Spencer_, and @dc_lawrence for pushing for this.) gov.uk/government/new…

@avocet2 @faisalislam @Frencheconomics We don’t have a coherent net zero policy. Not building onshore wind was incredibly harmful to the UK economy. At the time it was the cheapest form of electricity, with costs falling rapidly. Progress stalled for 15 years thanks to idiotic government policies.

@DERCONOMY @faisalislam @Frencheconomics Net Zero and Labour are destroying Britain.

NEW Chancellor announces new restriction on use of judicial review for “critical infrastructure” clean energy projects - ie wind and nuclear - and time limitation for other projects, roads, rail and reservoirs - this is in addition to the streamlining of the process in the planning law. Will curb environmental challenges to big infrastructure plans.

@TimBrowning @julianHjessop The UK workforce is already relatively immobile thanks to stamp duty. CGT on principal residences (without some form of rollover relief) would make that worse.

@julianHjessop The outlier is on personal homes. It should be taxed in the same way. It would make buying decisions attached to longevity. It would make selling for profit limited. It is not an investment market and it never was.

Here's my tuppenceworth on capital gains tax (CGT)... 1️⃣ as a starting point, CGT and income tax rates should be equalised, based on the principles of tax neutrality and simplification 2️⃣ I don't really buy the "double taxation" objection, because its only the gain that is being taxed not the original investment 3️⃣ the UK is an outlier in its relatively favourable treatment of capital gains (though many would say that's a good thing!) Now for the 'buts'... 4️⃣ it could not be as simple as just equalising CGT and income tax: capital gains are lumpier (so CGT would need to be smoothed to be fair), and the tax should only apply to real gains (so you would need some form of indexation to strip out inflation) 5️⃣ you would probably also still want some form of carve out for genuine entrepreneurs, and for other certain other forms of investment. Increasing CGT could discourage saving and distort decisions (for example, people would have a bigger incentive to hold on to assets rather than pay tax, or rush to dump them in anticipation of future tax increases). 6️⃣ for these and many other reasons, the revenue to be gained (or possibly lost) from raising CGT is relatively uncertain; the behavioural responses, including capital.flight, could actually reduce revenues... 7️⃣ finally, this should only be part of a wider reform of the tax system; the UK already taxes "wealth" in many different ways, and any increase in CGT should be used to cut other taxes, such as stamp duty on both property and shares, and IHT (but that is not of course what Labour leadership candidates are thinking!)

@avocet2 @drewsparkley @faisalislam It costs 20x because of nimbies Natural England, and obstructive local councils.

@drewsparkley @faisalislam Not at 20x the cost of building the same thing elsewhere.