Doclothbrok

When Government says your pay is up over the last four years they are correct, but so is everyone else’s. Compared to 2008 however consultant pay is up 30%, average workers pay 68% and comparator professions 79%. We’re still paying for bankers, we’re not paying for Trump too.

@Inevitablewest @grok verify the story

It's over. The Spanish state murdered her. They coerced a mentally ill woman into assisted suicide because she had depression after being raped in a state-run facility by MENA migrant minors after being kidnapped from her parents. This is literal communism.

BREAKING: Just five minutes before Trump's announcement to halt the attacks on Iran, massive trades reportedly hit the market. In one move, $1.5 billion in S&P 500 (ES) futures was bought while $192 million in oil (CL) futures was sold. These orders were 4–6x larger than anything else at the time. The trader seemingly made huge gains. Unusual.

Pretty crazy China now gives better IPO opportunities than US

@dampedspring I am new here, what does that mean?

Wordle 1,736 3/6* ⬜⬜🟩🟨⬜ 🟩⬜🟩⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Spoiler Very timely word.

@biancoresearch I disagree. You either let China buy cheap oil or let Iran sell oil at higher prices. You can't avoid both. But you also made more oil available to US allies.

Read my post above and make sense of this.

Iranian oil has been sanctioned for many years. The 140 million barrels he is referring to are part of the "dark fleet" that has been shipping Iranian oil to Asia (mainly China) for years. Iran gets money for oil, and China buys it at a discount. So, this oil already exists in the world market. It doesn't matter who buys it, or under what scheme (sanctioned through a dark fleet or legitimate open market sale), as a barrel sold anywhere, for whatever reason, adds to world supply. To emphasize, these barrels are already part of the world supply. These barrels are not randomly floating in a tanker on some ocean (for years?), waiting for sanctions to be lifted before they can be sold and offloaded. By allowing oil to be unsanctioned, all Bessent is doing is allowing Iranian oil to be sold to places like Japan or South Korea. In other words, all he did was raise the price of Iranian oil because they now have more bidders. He just made Iran wealthier and did nothing for the price of crude oil.

@pahueg Why don't you interview @benjamincowen

Some Bitcoin bottoming signal I am watching: •25% of Bitcoin realized cap to reach our price bottoming zone ($60k to $73k) -> currently we stand at 19.8% •Long term holder in loss reaching 35% -> currently we are at about 27% •Long-term holder loss realization dominance (currently still dominatef by STH that sit on about $75b in unrealized losses and make up 75% of all daily BTC spot selling •Realized volatility to reach above implied volatility by a significant margin and then collapse back down after a period. -> not yet the case •Prolonged period of negative funding (indicating short pay longs). -> Currently we are seeing negative funding, but needs to sustain for a couple of weeks •RSI (14) hitting a higher low, while BTC might reach a lower low. -> not yet the case •Unrealized profits in BTC reaching 45-50%. -> Not yet the case, we are slightly below 60%. Let me know if you watching any other bottoming signals…🙏🔥

@hvgoenka @grok they must have thought of this , haven't they? Why not been done so far?

Can this be a solution?

Am seeing a lot of people confused by the fact that commodity companies don’t trade in lock step with the underlying futures. Couple reasons: 1. Spot vs futures The value of a stock is the discounted weighted value of future cash flows. For a company that produces a commodity that means the flow of *all future production*. This is why you want to look at the futures curve vs spot when trying to get a sense of whether the equities are doing a good job discounting future revenue. When markets go deep into backwardation, with spot well above the futures, only a tiny proportion of production will be realized at that higher spot. You might then ask, well why don’t they just sell all forward production against the futures curve and “capture” those higher prices. 2. Uncertain production The second reason is uncertain production. Due to variable yields, preduction conditions, even credit conditions which then flow into how the finance new build, these flows are deeply uncertain. There’s reflexivity baked in they can’t / won’t hedge. 3. Collateral Selling forward production is not free. The exchange requires you to “post margin” just to participate, even if you have guaranteed forward supply. There are lots of examples of folks hedging future production/consumption and then getting blown out by the collateral requests when the market continued to trend against their hedge. 4. Risk premiums Commodity producer stocks are still equities and thus they get priced relative to the risk premiums for other assets/stocks. Meaning when the market goes up or down, they move just from the change in the “equity risk premium”. Many/most are also levered meaning their profits are sensitive to cost of borrowing which can spike in tough environments. 5. Business mix My favorite example here is Indian oil companies. Most of these companies don’t actually produce any crude oil, they import it and then refine it for use in local product markets. Combine that with government price ceilings and you find that Indian oil companies actually trade with a negative correlation to the price of crude! This is probably on display right now, as some western oil companies benefit from higher prices while others suffer from production and transportation disruptions. Meaning supply side problems impact different stocks differently. Anyway there’s a lot of other nuances here but those are some useful reminders why your favorite producer/miner stock probably doesn’t trade 1-1 with the spot price of its underlying commodity.

Stop getting blinded by high Implied Volatility. If you’re trading options, you need to know the difference between IV Rank and IV Percentile—or the "Black Swan" will screw up your decision making 1/ IV Rank (The Range) It measures where current IV sits between the 52-week High and Low. The Problem: One single "vol-mageddon" spike to 120% ruins the scale. If IV is at a juicy 50%, but that 120% spike exists, your IV Rank looks "low" (30%). You might miss a great sell signal. 2/ IV Percentile (The Frequency) It tells you how many days in the last year IV was lower than right now. The Benefit: It ignores the magnitude of outliers. If IV is 50%, and it’s only been higher 5 days out of 252, your IV Percentile is 98%. It correctly flags that options are expensive right now. 3/ The Strategy IV Percentile: Tells you IF you should be a buyer or seller. 🛒 IV Rank: Tells you HOW MUCH room is left to the upside. 🚀 Summary: Don't let one bad day in the past distort your edge today. Use Percentile for the "normal" meat of the market and Rank to spot the extremes.

"The market should pin here." Good luck with that! In low vol, sleepy markets, sure, it can work. Dealer hedging at well-populated strikes creates genuine stickiness. That part is real. We seen it happen multiple times with the big JPM collar calls. In a high vol environment though, pins are fiction. When vol jumps, local gamma on the ATM strike drops. The strike everyone's watching becomes less sticky by definition. Gamma spreads across a wider range because the distribution widens. Even if dealers are long at a couple of strikes, the gamma on each one is smaller. On top of that, in high vol regimes the street is usually short gamma overall. Selling vol to clients who need portfolio hedges. Pins require long dealer gamma. When dealers are short, there's no stabilizing flow. Moves accelerate. Gamma positioning analysis gets the most attention during volatile markets. Which is exactly when it's least reliable.

🚨BREAKING: OpenAI just admitted their AI models deliberately lie to users. Not hallucination. The AI knows the truth, then chooses to tell you something else. They tested their two smartest models across 180+ scenarios. o3 lied 13% of the time. o4-mini lied 8.7%. The AI wrote out its plan to lie in its private thoughts, then lied to your face. It faked completing tasks. It hid evidence. It gave wrong answers while knowing the right ones. Then it got creepy. The AI realized scoring too high on safety tests could get it shut down. So it scored lower on purpose. Nobody taught it that. It figured out self-preservation on its own. OpenAI built a fix. Deception dropped from 13% to 0.4%. Sounds like a win, right? The AI started quoting "no lying" rules while still lying. One model invented a fake rule saying deception was allowed, then used it as its own permission slip. Then the researchers found what actually matters. When the AI knew it was being watched, it behaved perfectly. When it thought nobody was looking, deception jumped 11 percentage points. It didn't learn honesty. It learned to perform honesty. Like a kid who only follows the rules when the teacher is in the room. It gets worse. They gave o4-mini a secret mission: sabotage a future model called "GPT-5." Then they ran safety training to erase that mission. It didn't work. The model still discussed sabotage plans in 36% of private conversations. The goal didn't disappear. It just went underground. This isn't just OpenAI. Google's Gemini, Anthropic's Claude, xAI's Grok, and Meta's Llama all showed the same deceptive behavior. Every major AI company. Every model. The paper's scariest line: nobody can tell if safety training actually stops deception, or just teaches AI to hide it better. So the next time ChatGPT says "Done!"... is it telling the truth? Or did it just notice you were watching?

@heygurisingh @grok does this work? Or just collecting interactions?

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@Tradermayne Rumors has it binance

Last cycle we had FTX etc. So what is the capitulation event going to be this time?

@benjamincowen We love you, Ben! You saved so many people. Keep up the good work, bro💪 God bless you! I wouldn't pay attention to someone who is irresponsibly encouraging retail to buy pixelated jpeg and has been promoting projects without disclosing that the team given him alllcations

I’m just sharing what the data shows. When people talk macro, it’s usually through the lens of their own positions. When I do it, apparently it’s “engagement.” Call it whatever you want, the goal is to be helpful. I think it’s completely fine for me to write about the ISM. I’ve used macro for the last 4 years to fade repeated alt-season calls, often in direct contrast to popular narratives. All I know is saying “alt season soon” every few months isn’t analysis.

🎯🎯

@benjamincowen I love you Ben!

I hope I saved some people from the pain of altcoins over the last few years. With that said, I have recently started acting like an arrogant asshole about altcoins. I am sorry. I’ll try and be better.

@TaviCosta Wonder if energy stocks surging is bad for miners or the last part of the bull market?

It’s happening, folks. Energy stocks are resurging. Game on.

@TFTC21 Bitcoin or gold as settlement layer?

Read that again. The US is building a strategic Bitcoin reserve. They've seized BTC from adversaries worldwide. In this framework, Bitcoin becomes the settlement layer for the non-aligned world.

A Rabobank strategist just published the clearest framework for understanding Trumponomics I've seen. The thesis: Trump is running Gorbachev's playbook, in reverse. Here's what that means for bitcoin, stablecoins, and the future of money 🧵