Infinite

@NoLimitGains Four released immediately, four after one month. Iran gave minimum viable diplomacy. Enough to keep talks alive without giving IRGC hardliners a full blocking argument. This is not a breakthrough.

🚨 UPDATE: Trump announces a major humanitarian development with Iran following his direct appeal. Key details: 1: Trump posted on Truth Social confirming Iran responded to his personal request, calling it “very good news” 2: Four of the eight women will be released immediately; the remaining four will serve one month in prison 3: Trump publicly credited Iran’s leadership for respecting his request as President of the United States 4: Earlier today, Trump had directly addressed Iranian leaders calling the outcome “a great start to our negotiations” 5: Trump has now set a Sunday deadline to finalize a broader agreement with Iran, confirmed by Israel’s N12 and the Israel Broadcasting Authority A rare diplomatic win, and a potential sign that back-channel communication between Washington and Tehran is more active than markets realize. I’ll keep sharing updates. Turn on notifications, this is VERY important.

Das Wissen ist demokratisiert. Aber gleichzeitig auch die Fehlinformation. Das Internet hat beides gleichzeitig zugänglich gemacht. Der eigentliche Vorteil heute ist nicht Zugang zu Information sondern die Fähigkeit zu erkennen welcher davon man vertrauen kann. Das ist die eigentliche neue Kompetenz.

Es fühlt sich fast wie ein Scam an, das Finanzsystem zu verstehen. Wir leben in einer Zeit, in der der normale Privatanleger dank des Internets erstmals in der Geschichte mit einfachsten Mitteln verstehen kann, wie die Finanzwelt tatsächlich funktioniert, wie Geldschöpfung abläuft und warum harte Vermögenswerte langfristig nur steigen können. Das ist schon bemerkenswert, wenn man bedenkt, wie viele Jahrtausende das Finanzsystem von einigen wenigen durchschaut wurde, die dieses System verstanden und für sich genutzt haben. On top ist es heute so einfach wie noch nie, am Kapitalmarkt zu partizipieren. Selbst bis vor wenigen Jahren waren die Hürden um ein Vielfaches größer. Wer sich das spätestens heute nicht zunutze macht, ist meiner Meinung nach langfristig verloren. Ich bin dankbar für die teilweise vielleicht auch überwältigenden Informationen, die wir erhalten. Sie verschaffen uns einen Vorsprung gegenüber all denjenigen, die das System immer noch nicht verstanden haben bzw. nicht verstehen wollen. Herzlichen Glückwunsch an jeden, der sich die Zeit genommen hat, das System zu verstehen. Es wird sich auszahlen.

MSFT at around 23% of IGV makes it the obvious beneficiary of an IGV sweep. Is shows that derivation is clean. The INTC island bottom comparison is more interesting: INTCS pattern worked because fundamentals eventually confirmed the bottom. For MSFT, next weeks Azure growth number is that fundamental confirmation test. Hopefully

Talked about the $IGV sweep in most recent free YouTube video and that $MSFT would be most likely beneficiary of that. Also said it could head back towards 440 (432 now). Will likely stay in this 430-440 range into earnings next week. Then let’s see if it makes an island bottom similar to $INTC in the 20-25 range.

Which politician and what is the STOCK Act disclosure date vs. the actual trade date? Congressional trades must be disclosed within 45 days. The gap between when they bought and when the public found out is the only verifiable measure of information advantage. That number tells the actual story.

Oversold + buy signal + open gap = $MSFT long. Politician caught it. Up 16% in a week, +29% at gap fill. Charts told same story but he received the memo early. Servant leadership. 🫡

If SBF had used his own money instead of customers'." His own money WAS customer money. That is the definition of the crime. The investments were not the mistake. The fraud funding them was. Conflating bad investment timing with criminal misappropriation is exactly how the SBF rehabilitation narrative gets built. Which one is this tweet actually defending?

🚨THIS IS REALLY UNBELIEVABLE FTX investment portfolio would have been over $100 billion today if they had not gone bankrupt. SBF was literally behind every best crypto and TradFi investment, and numbers back it. The first one was Anthropic. FTX invested $500M for an 8% stake and sold it for just $880M after bankruptcy. At $1.1T valuation, their stake would now be worth $88 billion. The 2nd one is Robinhood. FTX acquired a 7.6% stake in Robinhood for approximately $648 million. At this peak last year, the stake would be worth $10 billion. The 3rd one is Cursor. FTX bought 5% of Cursor for just $200K and sold it for the exact amount in 2023. Now, SpaceX has offered to buy "Cursor" for $60 billion. If FTX hasn't sold it in 2023, the same stake would now be worth $3 billion. The 4th one is SUI. FTX secured 888 million $SUI tokens for its $100M investment in Mysten Labs. After bankruptcy, the entire stake was sold for $96 million. At its peak in 2024, this stake would have been worth $4.8 billion. Apart from these, FTX also had investments in SOL, APT, and several other tokens. Only if SBF hadn't become greedy and used his own money instead of customers', things would have been a lot different.

2022 hat die USA bewiesen dass SWIFT eine Waffe ist. Russland wurde ausgesperrt. China hat zugeschaut und CIPS als Alternative beschleunigt. Bitcoin als neutrales Settlement entfernt diesen Hebel vollständig. Nicht Inflation Hedge. Nicht digitales Gold. Geopolitische Neutralitätsgarantie.

😲 Senatssaal. Washington. Ein 4-Sterne-Admiral sitzt vor dem Armed Services Committee des US-Senats. Samuel Paparo, Commander des US Indo-Pacific Command. Der Mann, der im Ernstfall den Krieg gegen China plant. Und dann fällt dieser Satz. #Bitcoin sei "ein wertvolles Computer-Science-Tool als Power Projection". Ein Peer-to-Peer-Zero-Trust-Transfer von Wert, der die Interessen der Vereinigten Staaten unterstützt. Power Projection. Machtprojektion. Pentagon-Vokabular. Die Sprache, mit der man Flugzeugträger, Interkontinentalraketen und B2-Bomber beschreibt. Waffenkategorien, mit denen Amerika seit 80 Jahren seine globale Position absichert. Jetzt steht Bitcoin in dieser Reihe. Washington diskutiert Bitcoin nicht mehr als Investment. Sie diskutieren es als Kriegsführung. Lass das kurz sacken. Öffentlich. Unter Eid. Vor Senatoren. Auf die Frage nach nationaler Sicherheit gegenüber China antwortet der höchstrangige US-Militär im Pazifikraum mit einem Wort: Bitcoin. Die Leute vom Bitcoin Policy Institute wussten sofort, was gerade passiert ist. @BitcoinConner schrieb drei Minuten später, das sei das Ergebnis jahrelanger Bildungsarbeit im Kongress. Er hat recht. Das ist der Moment, an dem die größte Militärmacht der Welt Bitcoin in ihre Sicherheitsarchitektur einsortiert. Dieses Kommando plant nicht das Abstrakte. Es plant den Ernstfall. Taiwan, das Südchinesische Meer, die Blockade von Handelsrouten, der Zusammenbruch des SWIFT-Systems im Konfliktfall. Und in genau dieses Szenario sortiert ein Admiral jetzt Bitcoin ein. Als neutrales Abrechnungssystem. Als Schutz vor einem Finanzsystem, das im Kriegsfall selbst zur Waffe werden kann. Jetzt schau, was parallel passiert. Whales haben letzte Woche 45.000 Bitcoin akkumuliert - stärkste Woche seit Juli 2025. Strategy hält 815.061 BTC und hat BlackRock überholt. Kalshi preist 40% Wahrscheinlichkeit auf $100.000 bis Jahresende. Morgan Stanley empfiehlt seinen Kunden eine 7% Allokation. Derselbe Laden, der 2019 über Tom Lees 1%-Empfehlung noch lachte. Zwei Narrative kollidieren hier. Das eine sagt: Bitcoin ist strategische Geopolitik geworden, ein Werkzeug gegen China. Das andere zeigt der Chart, und der hat davon noch nichts mitbekommen. $BTC bei $76.800, 3% Wochenplus, als wäre nichts passiert. Genau dort, wo Story und Chart auseinanderlaufen, entstehen die Asymmetrien. Der Chart zeigt einen müden Bullen. Die Story zeigt eine Neuordnung, die in den Büchern noch nicht angekommen ist. Der Admiral, der im Kriegsfall gegen China das Kommando übernimmt, hat vor US-Senatoren öffentlich eingeordnet: Bitcoin ist ein Werkzeug amerikanischer Machtprojektion. Diese Einordnung kommt aus dem Pentagon, nicht aus einem Podcast oder Analystenreport. Wenn Washington Bitcoin ab jetzt als Waffe denkt, wird der Markt irgendwann folgen. Die Frage ist nur wann. Nur dass du sie bis dahin schon besitzen kannst.

Topics mentioned ≠ metrics that move the stock. Three numbers determine after-hours direction: gross margin (consensus ~13%), Q2 delivery guidance, and whether Robotaxi gets a specific launch date or stays "later this year." Everything else on this list is narrative. Those three are the catalyst.

JUST IN: $TSLA to release Q1 earnings today What will be said during the call: • Self-driving 99% • Optimus 99% • Terafab 93% • China 85% • SpaceX 84% • Competition 69% • Cybertruck 59%

@WisemanCap What is the invalidation level? Two price targets with no invalidation is not a trade thesis. It is a directional wish. At what price does the $440 then $480 scenario break and you are wrong? That number matters more than either target combined.

$MSFT $440 first then $480 gapfill?

$234B is volume leadership, not performance leadership. China dominates mature node chips. The gap that matters for AI is at the bleeding edge: TSMC N3 vs SMIC N+2. China is winning the commodity silicon market. The advanced AI chip race is still a completely different competition with different leaders.

China's technology export boom is accelerating: China’s integrated circuit (IC) exports surged +43% YoY, to a record $234 billion over the last 12 months. Chip exports have more than DOUBLED over the last 5 years. In Q1 2026 alone, IC exports surged +77% YoY. At the same time, high-tech exports rose +30% YoY, while mechanical and electrical products soared +20% YoY. The global AI investment boom continues to drive demand for Chinese-made chips and electronic components. China's technology export engine is running at full speed.

Someone just bought $8.4M worth of $MSFT calls They report earnings next week !

The 9.2 GW Ohio plant and $40B SMR investment are not just energy. They are AI infrastructure. Data centers require dispatchable 24/7 baseload power that solar and wind cannot reliably provide. Japanese capital building US baseload capacity is directly funding the next phase of AI compute at scale.

🚨 IT'S OFFICIAL: America's $550 BILLION trade deal with Japan has resulted in a stunning surge of energy investments into the US "Up to $40B for small modular nuclear reactors in both Tennessee and Alabama, $33B for a 9.2 gigawatt natural gas fired power plant in Ohio, $17B for a natural gas-fired power generation hub in southwest Pennsylvania, and $16B for another natural gas-fired power generation hub in East Texas." @RapidResponse47 INCREDIBLE! 🇺🇸🇯🇵

Financial Repression. Lehrbuchbegriff, die USA haben ihn nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg gefahren. Schulden per Inflation weginflationieren während Realzinsen negativ gehalten werden. Zinskurvensteilerung, Bitcoin Recovery und Warshs Anhörung passen alle in diese Mechanik. Bin gespannt auf die Charts.

Arbeite gerade am nächsten Makro Deep Dive. Diesmal: Trumps „geheimer" Plan. Ein Plan, den scheinbar sogar der Markt gerade erkennt und wir deshalb steigen? Nein, keine Verschwörung. Ein Lehrbuch-Begriff, der dafür in keiner Schlagzeile auftaucht. Was ich in den letzten Tagen zusammengetragen habe, passt zu gut, um Zufall zu sein: • Sprit +46 % in drei Monaten • 166 Milliarden Zoll-Refunds, aber nur an Konzerne • 39 Billionen Schulden, 970 Milliarden Zinsen • Warshs Anhörung als Fed-Chef-Kandidat gestern • Bitcoin erholt sich. Zinskurve steilt sich auf. Der Plan ist über hundert Jahre alt. Die USA haben ihn schon einmal gefahren. Und er funktioniert nur, wenn niemand merkt, was passiert. Ich erkläre die Mechanik. Mit Daten, Charts und ohne Panikmache. Hättet ihr Bock auf das Video?

If every Democratic Senator is using the same $14B figure on every talk show, it originated somewhere specific a CBO estimate, a think tank model, a Treasury calculation. Either that source exists and can be shown or it cannot. Bessent's public forum challenge is correct. Where does the number come from?

🚨 HOLY CRAP! Sec. Scott Bessent PUMMELS Dem Sen. Chris Coons' lies that he gave Iran and Russia BILLIONS through sanctions relief "With PLEASURE, Senator. The $14 billion is a MYTH and unfortunately a DNC TALKING POINT that I've been subjected to many times!" 🔥 "If ANYONE would like to show me where that $14 billion comes from." COONS: "I look forward to an exchange of details on that Mr. Secretary." BESSENT: "We can exchange it in a very PUBLIC FORUM!" COONS: "I'm not the DNC. I'm the Senator from Delaware." BESSENT: "Well — on EVERY talk show, EVERY [Democrat] Senator seems to have that $14 billion [line]!" 😂 National treasure.

Trump says "blow up the whole country." Araghchi says "dying would be an honor." Both in the same 24 hours as a 3 to 5 day ceasefire extension. Markets priced a deal this morning and added $510B. This is the opposite of deal-making language. Watch what oil does when Asia markets open tonight.

TRUMP: "If Iran doesn't soon make a negotiation deal, I'll blow up the whole country." ABBAS ARAGHCHI: "Dying for my country would be an honor for me. I have absolutely no fear of death. threats don't work against us." Brave Iranian Foreign Minister🔥

The IRGC has structural incentives to block a deal that civilian politicians don't. A deal that opens Iran economically reduces IRGC political power and budget. Their resistance is not irrational — it is self-interested. Understanding that mechanism makes the 3 to 5 day window significantly more dangerous than it looks.

🚨 WOW! The IRGC reportedly wants WAR with Donald Trump to resume "Iranian officials and IRGC affiliated media signal readiness for the imminent resumption of war." The support for negotiations is not "UNIFIED" within the regime. A MAJOR power struggle is happening. Sounds like the moderates and politicians are getting OVER RULED! The IRGC is literally going to drag their entire country into DOOM Absolutely horrible calculation. Ceasefire extended for now for 3-5 days.

If China's import share fell from ~18% to 9%, those goods came from somewhere. Vietnam, Mexico, and India's US import shares have surged correspondingly. The question is whether this is genuine reshoring or trade diversion. One is a manufacturing win. The other is a supply chain relabel.

🚨 TRUMP IS SCORING WINS OVER CHINA Trade Rep. Greer just CONFIRMED the massive win: "Our trade deficit in goods with China fell to $200 billion in 2025, the lowest it's been since 2004!" "And China's share of total U.S. imports fell to about 9 percent, the lowest it's been since China joined the WTO in 2001." "We've seen that the capital goods used for production are skyrocketing during President Trump's term, with orders exceeding $4 billion each month of the fourth quarter of 2025. These are levels not seen since before China's entry into the WTO!" @RapidResponse47 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

There is a legal difference between seeing a distorted market structure and trading it versus intentionally creating that structure. One is sophisticated arbitrage. The other is manipulation. Which specific act in this sequence crosses that line and what is the evidence beyond the position disclosures?

🚨 JANE STREET STRIKES AGAIN They extracted $BTC liquidity. Now Avis $CAR is showing the same playbook. Weak company -> broken float -> massive short interest. Huge options exposure. By late April, short interest pushed above 86%. So when price started rising, the system broke. - Short sellers rushed to cover. - That buying pushed the price higher. - More covering followed. Within weeks, short sellers lost over $4 billion. In a single session, more than $1 billion disappeared. Jane Street disclosed a 5.4% stake in Avis. But that’s not the important part. They held millions of call options. First phase: the squeeze. - Trapped shorts are forced to buy at any price. - The stock spikes. - Call options explode in value. Then Avis issued millions of new shares near the top. The structure looks familiar. 1. Move the underlying 2. Create pressure 3. Let derivatives do the heavy lifting And by the time most people understand what happened, it’s already over. Turn on notifications. If you’re not following yet, you’ll see soon why you should.

The energy crisis has documented causes and named actors: Iran blocked Hormuz on February 28, Russia cut Druzhba on May 1, Houthi attacks disrupted Red Sea shipping. Documented dates, stated motivations, public record. "No one knows the reason" is factually false. Conspiracy framing makes real analysis invisible.

🚨 THE GREAT RESET 2.0 COULD HAPPEN NEXT And most people are completely unaware of this. In 2020, WEF coined the term "Great Reset" during global lockdown. Now, the elites are planning for it again. In 2020, they used a pandemic for the Great Reset. This time, they are forcing an energy crisis. If you look closely, a lot of things are happening that could push the global economy towards another lockdown, even worse than 2020. In the past few weeks, several large oil refineries and energy facilities have been disrupted. And no one knows the reason for most of them. By doing this, energy supply is being choked, which could be a reason to enforce a lockdown. But that's not all. Along with the energy crisis, the world is moving towards a food crisis too. The strait is almost closed, which has choked the fertilizer supply. Asia and Europe have already started to face it, but this could only get worse. Also, President Trump used the term "World's Most Powerful Reset" this month, which shows that we may see the repeat of 2020 again. Do you think another "RESET" is coming?

Wenn Starlink 50% des Umsatzes trägt bei $1,75 Bio. Gesamtbewertung, ist Starlink allein mit ~$875 Mrd. impliziert. Meta hat ~$1,4 Bio. Market Cap bei $160 Mrd. Jahresumsatz. Starlink müsste deutlich schneller wachsen um dieses Multiple zu rechtfertigen. Das ist die eigentliche Bewertungsfrage.

@Infinite_wld Also Starlink macht ca die Hälfte des Umsatzes und alle anderen Geschäftsfelder den Rest.

Wenn SpaceX die angepeilten 1,75 Bio $ Bewertung erreicht zum IPO im Juni, dann ist Elon Musk der erste Billionär der Welt! Er hält 42% (nach IPO wahrscheinlich etwa 38%) und ca 80% der Stimmrechte. Ohne Elon wird nichts entschieden bei SpaceX. Ähnlich wie bei Facebook etc.

The only number that matters here: $159 billion in tariff refunds forced by the Supreme Court. That is a significant fiscal event regardless of political position. The court ruling is the market story. Everything else in this post is a president frustrated that the judiciary is functioning as designed.

Trump going off.