Cogent Sins🔎

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Cogent Sins🔎

Cogent Sins🔎

@Insect_Song

Pre-rationalist in New Zealand. Husband. Father. All opinions are my employer's. It is very important we implement LVT & YIMBY urbanism before AI kills us all.

Auckland, NZ, Thulcandra شامل ہوئے Mart 2016
356 فالونگ411 فالوورز
Cogent Sins🔎
Cogent Sins🔎@Insect_Song·
@kylepullman @MurrayHillGuy1 Nice place. FWIW, I got in the habit of always setting up babies on the floor. I found it stressful keeping an eye on them in setups like yours as they rolled & wriggled, & eventually I worked out that they couldn't fall off the ground & that was easier for me.
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Murray Hill Guy
Murray Hill Guy@MurrayHillGuy1·
How do people in the suburbs genuinely look forward to Friday night on the couch, Saturday morning at Costco, and call that a weekend? Like you really moved out of the city just to LARP as your parents at 34?
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amolitor.dolt
amolitor.dolt@amolitor99·
@Insect_Song @WKCosmo sorry, that's exactly what i meant! not Drake at all, Weber. And I guess we disagree on his well he did ;)
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Cogent Sins🔎
Cogent Sins🔎@Insect_Song·
@amolitor99 @WKCosmo That sounds somewhat similar to the Honour Harrington series, except IMHO David Weber did a good job making up some tech & physics that let him tell the story & type of space battles he wanted, then ran with it.
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amolitor.dolt
amolitor.dolt@amolitor99·
@WKCosmo dune is a great example of an author desperately trying to invent some cool tech that enables him to write about a combat style that he favors. david drake lovingly recreating Napoleonic sea battle tactics in space is the best (i.e. worst) example of this. it's incredibly hard.
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Cogent Sins🔎
Cogent Sins🔎@Insect_Song·
@ESCTDS5101963 @ThymeToBeBorn Landfills are great. In the modern west they're sealed off so don't leach anything, they're a tiny fraction of land area, and it's cheap & easy to dump stuff there, often more eco-friendly than recycling.
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ThymeToBeBorn
ThymeToBeBorn@ThymeToBeBorn·
Being in your 60s now is having great depression/WW2 parents who hunted skunks to make fur hats for the war effort in elementary school, and being subject to 80s/90s crying Italian environmentalism propaganda making you think landfills are evil.
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Matt Bateman
Matt Bateman@mbateman·
@loobah_l Too soon to say but my prediction is yes, he’s loquacious and “because”-hungry
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Matt Bateman
Matt Bateman@mbateman·
5yo: Why do they keep asking me who you are? me: To ensure that you aren’t being kidnapped 5yo: Why is my bag going into that machine? me: To ensure that they aren’t bombs 5yo: Why does that sign say “are you okay?” and “are you feeling safe?” me: Kidnapping again 5yo: ???
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Cogent Sins🔎
Cogent Sins🔎@Insect_Song·
@quirkyllama For indefinite lockdowns, there's a feedback loop. People adjust their personal behaviour based on perceived risk, regardless official rules, so you get a relatively constant transmission rate, not one big wave.
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🐐QuirkyLlama
🐐QuirkyLlama@quirkyllama·
As someone who was wrong about this (I supported lockdowns for too long after the evidence was clear they didn't make sense): 1) I *still* don't understand why lockdowns didn't work. I get the "everyone got it anyways", but even when measured in terms of short-term spread, they didn't appear to work. 2) I still don't understand what the model for outbreaks is. Sometimes you get huge outbreaks, sometimes not. How does a very infections disease go from 4% of population to <1% without mass immunity? We'd see multiple waves, but why? Why not 1 big wave, then herd immunity?
Jonatan Pallesen@jonatanpallesen

@arctotherium42 And they probably achieved close to nothing. Everyone got covid anyway. At the very least they should at least make an attempt at measuring the benefit.

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Cogent Sins🔎
Cogent Sins🔎@Insect_Song·
@quirkyllama Lockdowns worked very well in NZ, but they were extremely restrictive, far more so than anything in the US. And we did this for a relatively short time & actually eliminated COVID for a while, so it was worthwhile.
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Cogent Sins🔎
Cogent Sins🔎@Insect_Song·
@lymanstoneky I think this analysis would be equally clear to China, and be seen as a good reason to try and avoid US involvement.
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Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
I think this misunderstands the politics. In the first few hours of a war with China over Taiwan, US military personnel will be dying by the hundreds or thousands as China spams ungodly quantities of missiles at US bases. It will be a war of vengeance, not choice.
Adam Ozimek@ModeledBehavior

Watch how poorly this war goes down with voters and really ask yourself whether we would have the public support to withstand the economic shock of a war with China for the sake of the people of Taiwan. Hold aside good or bad, I really don't think we are remotely willing

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Cogent Sins🔎
Cogent Sins🔎@Insect_Song·
@RealDianeYap You might be descriptively correct, but I have a strong "yuch" reaction to the implied normative claim there. Truth & sharing one's stories are higher values here. Separately from that, I agree it's a shame that it's easy to explain the difficulties but hard to explain the joys
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Cogent Sins🔎
Cogent Sins🔎@Insect_Song·
@almostlikethat @KelseyTuoc @CommishSmith in the Coromandel (just right of your screenshot) for weekends. Or Waiheke island if you're really doing well. & check out size of Westhaven Marina: the Hauraki Gulf is world class for weekend sailing or fishing expeditions, way more boaty here than California cities.
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Cogent Sins🔎
Cogent Sins🔎@Insect_Song·
@almostlikethat @KelseyTuoc @CommishSmith ...Full of extremely expensive houses around the best public schools. Plenty of lifestyle blocks for retirees on outlying areas, but the drive up to Whangaparoa is too much for daily commuting, if rich enough you're better off in the leafy suburbs & have a bach (holiday house)
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Brad Smith
Brad Smith@CommishSmith·
Asking hetero-normative, cisgender students for their pronouns is a profound act of aggression, meant to deny their identities and personhood and mark them in class as “deviant” from the professorial norm. It is a violent act against the heritage and culture formed over thousands of years. Good riddance.
Honesty For Ohio Education@Honesty4OhioEd

Ruth Colker, a highly distinguished law professor and the Heck Faust Memorial Chair in Constitutional Law, said that Ohio State’s “overcompliance” with SB 1 and its DEI rollbacks played a direct role in her early retirement. thelantern.com/2026/03/former…

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Cogent Sins🔎
Cogent Sins🔎@Insect_Song·
@planefag @ChrisO_wiki So I disagree with the link the QTer here is drawing, and mostly agree with your Iran points. But the fundamental thesis of this thread (~Hitler's bullshit/ Scott Adams-style manifesting was good for politics but bad for some parts of material reality) seems sound to me?
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ChrisO_wiki
ChrisO_wiki@ChrisO_wiki·
1/ It's very hard to win a war with a strategy that is built on bullshit. This was one of the key lessons of World War II, thanks to the approach taken by Adolf Hitler, who launched the war in Europe. Here are some of the lessons from Hitler's Great European Bullshit War. ⬇️
ChrisO_wiki tweet media
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Lucia Amuoralzg
Lucia Amuoralzg@Amuoralzg·
@Insect_Song @KelseyTuoc @CommishSmith (the main point is that. what. humans can always do default-polite things with palpable malicious intent, surely you're not proposing hacking up normal interactions in a doomed quest to eradicate that)
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Jeffrey Ladish
Jeffrey Ladish@JeffLadish·
I just don't understand how AI could kill everyone. I get how AI companies will build robotic factories that will make robots which will make more factories and data centers and power plants, and how all of that will expand to consume most of earth's resources to build even more robotic factories and rockets and von neumann probes. Like totally. Infinite money glitch. Of course AI companies will do that. But can someone explain the part where humans all die as a result? Seems pretty implausible. Is it the robotic factories that kill the humans? Or the robots the factories build? Or is it supposed to be some side effect of all the rockets that are launching? It doesn't make sense. Even if the AIs did want to kill all the humans, how would they actually accomplish that? They'll only have control over a few million autonomous factories and a few billion industrial robots and power plants across the earth and then a few trillion von neumann probes leaving the solar system. Even if there were a problem I don't see why we couldn't just pull the plug. Anyway, if someone could explain I'd find this helpful.
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Cogent Sins🔎
Cogent Sins🔎@Insect_Song·
@moultano One of my favourite parts of motorbiking across Vietnam was pulling off to the side of the road and treating myself to a self-guided factory tour & waving at the bemused workers as I inspected their brick making machine or bitumen melter or what have you.
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Jennifer RM
Jennifer RM@almostlikethat·
@Insect_Song @KelseyTuoc @CommishSmith Holy shit. Is this real? I'm guessing it is happening in SF or NYC if its real? Can you giving context/details/citations to this New Thing Under The Sun?
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Cogent Sins🔎
Cogent Sins🔎@Insect_Song·
@KelseyTuoc @CommishSmith Setting aside the main point here, apparently the teenage girl bullying repertoire now includes faux politely asking the pronouns of other cis het girls.
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Kelsey Piper
Kelsey Piper@KelseyTuoc·
@CommishSmith 'let's go around and ask everyone their pronouns' is super annoying but it is not a violent act and declaring random speech acts violent because you disagree with them is a far more profound betrayal of the heritage and culture of America
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