Kevin
25 posts


@Andres17G @RayBraha Votes aren’t out yet, I’m personally still holding until we see the results. But obviously not happy about it
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It’s just that the world wanted me to reach 1000% unrealized gains on $AXTI.
My most legendary thesis to date.

Jos@Jos1984482
@aleabitoreddit Anything explaining axti's 20% jump?
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@aleabitoreddit Where are you seeing less than 1B MC? Google shows $163 B MC Enplas Corp share.google/mOApfviJi4Fs0a…
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Enplas (6961) at ~$985M seems kinda interesting.
They hold two chokepoints:
1. Dominant supplier for MLAs (micro lens arrays). Eg. SiPH switches, 1.6T, 3.2T for photonics.
2. Oligopoly supplier for IC Test sockets (AI Chip Testing)
Cash on hand: ~$155M, no debt. Equity-to-Asset Ratio: ~89% (50%+ usually is solid), so low downside risk imo.
And their speculated customers:
1, Photonics (MLAs): Highly probable: Innolight, Eoptolink, Furukawa, Intel (SiPh). And prob $COHR, $LITE.
2. GPU/ASICs (Test Sockets): prob $TSM, ASE, types use these to likely test $NVDA GPUs, $GOOGL TPUs (Google Ironwood is highly probable).
"expanding mass production orders for major GPU manufacturers, and for ASIC-related projects for hyperscalers."
Then at OFC:
OFC: “We will be showcasing our new products for 800Gbps and 1.6Tbps transceivers and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) that support today’s rapid technological advancements in AI.”
Basically you have a company that supplies T1 semis, foundries, hyperscalers, that benefits from 1.6T from MLA photonics segment + CPO TAM expansion later from OFC products.
Was one my positions wanted to share my thoughts about since it seemed p cool at sub <$1B MC.

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@aleabitoreddit Where are you seeing the current MC less than 2 B? It shows 4.75B MC all along. Sivers Semiconductors AB google.com/search?kgmid=%…
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IT'S OFFICIAL: $JBL to use $SIVE Lasers for their optical transceivers.
Today: "Jabil plans to develop a 1.6T linear receive optical (LRO) transceiver module using Sivers’ high-performance Distributed Feedback (DFB) lasers"
Jabil Photonics: :Working with Sivers will allow us to deliver a 1.6T LRO solution that meets both data center performance and power targets at scale"
Where have you seen the LIGHT SOURCE for hyperscaler supply chains...
At a $500m MC? We had this hinted from physical sources at OFC, but many institutions needed actual confirmation like this.

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Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why:
1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security
2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count
3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai
4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle
5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now.
6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix
7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax
8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time
9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade
10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff
11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now
12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google.
13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it.
14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america
15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild.
16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act)
17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon.
18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well.
19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important
20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff
21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight?
22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks
23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long
24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition
25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck
26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors.
27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains
28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity.
29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine.
30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE
Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.
N@NabQ321
@aleabitoreddit Hey Serenity, If you already have a position in $AAOI, and a small bag of $AEHR, what 2-3 other stock would you look to add now/next few weeks to hold for 1+ years? (Excluding $SIVE and the small Asian stocks as not available for me) thanks for all you share!
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So just checked out the comments...
$P4O does look like a potential upstream $LITE supplier at a $34M MC.
How it likely maps:
-> Plan Optik $P4O (Glass Wafers)
-> Teledyne $TDY or Silek (Mem Foundries)
-> $LITE (OCS Switches)
-> $GOOGL (TPUs)
However, $LITE likely dual sources with Corning ( $GLW ) on the glass wafer level.
P4O is a known supplier to Infineon, Samsung, and others, so not exactly a random company.
€3.35 million vs. 35.52M MC is very healthy balance sheet.
That being said:
-> That doesn't exactly mean this translates to material revenue boosts unless they start price hike (given glass wafers are likely a very small part of $LITE OCS BOM).
I do personally own shares, after reading this.
Since $LITE OCS potential supply chain chokepoints is strategically valuable. Maybe not so much so as financially valuable.
But their core thesis that Plan Optik's Glass Flow and MDF finishing are effectively irreplaceable for OCS packaging checks out.
Of course, hyperscaler supply chains are heavily guarded, so no way to know 100%.
All credit goes to follower comments.
But TLDR:
Supply Chain Mapping
-> $P4O -> Foundries -> $LITE -> $GOOGL is very likely from their analysis.
As for being a chokepoint in $LITE OCS supply chain... dunno if it translates materially.
Again, not recommending this at all.
Just thought the $LITE OCS supply chain mapping like this very interesting, and that it would be a waste of the follower kinda posted all this work into the void.

LatentValue@latent_value7
@aleabitoreddit Ever look into photonics packaging? Check out PlanOptik/ $P40. They explicitly supply cavity glass wafers and substrates for optical MEMS, optical switches, advanced optical systems via Silex and Teledyne DALSA. Also make carrier wafers for InP. Only 23m euro cap.
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@adamkhootrader Hi Adam, I'm interested in selling Puts. I know how selling options work but I don't want to scour so many out there. Do any of your courses give me which option to sell?
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6 years ago (just before Covid) Olivia Chan took the Wealth Academy investor Masterclass
At the time, she was so Conservative that she had all her savings in fixed deposits. No stocks, no unit trusts, no ETFs.
During my course , she learnt that investing did not have to be high risk if you focus only on high-quality consistently profitable businesses and accumulate them when they are undervalued.
So she started to invest in Singapore and US stocks for the first time . In 2020, when global stock markets collapsed, she didn’t panic. Following what she had learned, she used the opportunity to buy stocks at huge 50% discounts.
A year later, she took the options course and started to learn how to sell cash secured Put options the right way, generating $3k to 8k a month in extra income
I’m so happy for her that today, her portfolio has reached a new milestone of $2million and she is now a full-time investor travelling the world.
What’s more important is that she continues to be an active member of the Pina prophets community, helping to answer questions and nurturing our new group of investors and traders at piranhaprofits.com

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@DavidLiaoCH @Beth_Kindig Can you cite the source of this opinion please?
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@Beth_Kindig This might or might not pan out. But one $NVDA technology that will fade away is InfiniBand. They acquired good talent from Mellanox a few years ago. They should be working on having a better Ethernet switches rather than continue investing in InfiniBand.
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Meta $META, AMD $AMD, Broadcom $AVGO, Google $GOOG, Microsoft $MSFT, HPE $HPE, Intel $INTC and Cisco $CSCO developed the ‘Ultra Accelerator Link’, a new industry standard for AI data center networking in an attempt to break Nvidia’s $NVDA dominance of the market.
The group designed specs governing connections among accelerators in data centers, and the specs will be available in Q3 for companies joining the standard.
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Which of these would you choose to hold for the next 5 years?
- A) Microsoft $MSFT Bitcoin $BTC Berkshire $BRK.B Visa $V
- B) Apple $AAPL Tesla $TSLA Taiwan Semi $TSM Disney $DIS
- C) Nvidia $NVDA Facebook $META Ethereum $ETH JPMorgan $JPM
- D) Amazon $AMZN Google $GOOGL Eli Lilly $LLY Walmart $WMT
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@PelosiTracker_ The award is for $PANW not pltr…. First day?
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@Beth_Kindig Why is there a reference to a token suddenly after Huang's recent interview? What is a token?
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Demand for Nvidia’s $NVDA GPUs remains blazing hot because of the ROI it offers.
CFO Colette Kress: “For example, using Llama 3 with 700 billion parameters, a single NVIDIA HGX H200 server can deliver 24,000 tokens per second, supporting more than 2,400 users at the same time.
That means for every $1 spent on NVIDIA HGX H200 servers at current prices per token, an API provider serving Llama 3 tokens can generate $7 in revenue over four years.”
$META $AMD $GOOG $MSFT $AMZN $AVGO
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@Kevin4AI @arny_trezzi We’re at such an early stage of AI no one knows. It comes down to whether you trust management to see down the pipe and innovate to stay ahead. Between Shyam Sankar, Dr. Karp and Western govt trust in $PLTR’s product they are the best bet imo
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$PLTR is my perfect company:
1. Recurring Revenue
2. Antifragile amid chaos
3. Employees are mission-driven and excellent
4. Visionary leadership ahead of the market
5. Founder CEO who speaks his mind
6. Strong FCF (~35% margin)
7. Excellent Balance Sheet ($4bn Cash)
8. Ability to build new products from within
9. No M&A dependence ( not like $SNOW)
10. Dominant position in specific niches (Defense)
11. Huge market to take (AI ~$1trn)
12. Network effects enable growth at scale
13. Improves the life of clients and the world
14. Go-to during emergencies (Covid)
15. Best community of passionate investors
16. Wins "impossible missions" (NHS, TITAN)
What's your perfect company?
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