LongConvexity

Morris was legitimately one of the best to play the game. Away from that he was a great husband, father, most recently a grandfather. He was also a great friend and mentor to many. #RIP

BOE’s Greene Sees Wait For Hard Evidence Of Second-Round Effects wsj.com/pro/central-ba… via @WSJ

Former Treasury Secretary Yellen cautions that war in Iran may fuel supply shocks and push inflation up

(New York Times) -- The United States proposed a 20-year “suspension” of all nuclear activity. In response, Iran renewed a proposal that it suspend nuclear activity for up to five years, according to two senior Iranian officials and one U.S. official.

Producer Price Index Jumps 0.5 Percent, Fourth Straight Month of Big Increases @tyillc @jlounsbury59 @USRoute41 @mtmalinen @jimiuorio @JonFraserTF @GratkeWealth @grok @dgsommersmkts @EnergyPhilFlynn The rise was much less than expected. Hooray? mishtalk.com/economics/prod…

Ahead of his expected hearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, Kevin Warsh vowed to divest a substantial amount of his more than $100 million in assets as he faces a complicated path to becoming the next chair of the Fed nytimes.com/2026/04/14/bus… @nytimes @TonyRomm

PPI to PCE

Chinese EV stocks jump on surging exports, domestic demand hopes-scmp

Strait of Hormuz Traffic has plummeted 📉📉

JUST IN: 🇸🇦🇨🇳 Saudi oil shipments to China set to drop 50% as Middle East war disrupts flows.

Japan homebuilders plan price hikes on higher pipe, paint costs s.nikkei.com/3OexhK4

Good Saturday Morning Chart Fans! I am back at my desk. Here is this week's edition of Saturday Chart Fest. open.substack.com/pub/helenemeis…

Sellers rage quitting. Now they’re rage listing.

Bank of America: prediction markets have a ~$1.1T annual volume opportunity in sports betting: - $10B revenue opportunity at ~1% fees - Sports bets made up ~79% of total prediction market trading volume in March Source: Bloomberg

The Headline CPI today was about oil - Core Inflation remained well behaved. Shelter and Core Services CPI are at or below pre-COVID levels, reinforcing that underlying inflation pressure has eased. Only Core Goods remains elevated, which should retrace as we lap the one-year mark on tariffs.

JP Morgan's latest tally of stressed and distressed credit in U.S. markets exceeds $200B across High Yield and Broadly Syndicated Loans. That figure does not include private credit, which I expect to be just as large as HY and BSL combined. When you add Direct Lending to the equation, we are looking at ~$500B+ requiring some form of capital solution in the years ahead. Opportunistic Credit is the flip side of the primary market for HY, BSL, and Direct Lending. When waters are calm, spreads are tight, and new issues flow freely; in this case, there is typically less activity in Opportunistic Credit. That calm is ending. The Morningstar LSTA Leveraged Loan Index has fallen from 98.0 to 94.5 as the distressed ratio of BSL is 8% and rising. Approximately 12% of private credit borrowers are now generating negative cash flow, with 25% operating with interest coverage below 1.0x. These are not hypothetical stress scenarios; this is the current fundamental backdrop companies must contend with. This statistic rises to ~33% when using actual EBITDA, rather than pro-forma adjusted EBITDA which on average has been adjusted higher by 20%. Capital Solutions will be needed for growth and for turnaround situations across the credit landscape. With the exception of the energy sector, which is performing exceptionally well for obvious reasons, all other 20 industry sectors have issues brewing as JP Morgan shows below.

@blackjackblack 😂

@LONGCONVEXITY 🤣

@JohnnyDramaChas This was good.

It’s Aquaman 2 all over again.

LMEs: coming soon to a software loan market near you!

The Aussie is the clear leader in today's risk-on rebound following the 2-week ceasefire between US and Iran.