Matt Lattman

@HiltonHonors 8634?

We are the REAL Hilton Honors account and we’ve got the points to prove it ✨ We’re thinking of a number between 1 and 50,000. Whoever guesses the exact number first may get a special DM and pointastic treat 👀

.@AGoldmund This would be an epic week for a Yes, Yes, No or 7…

Don’t worry, @RolenTLe and @stevie_dmv - I’m watching GA. I expect it to tighten up as most of the outstanding vote is big city. But I’m eyeballing until I have a chance to run the models…

Selfishly want free wine when the marathon sale opens at 9AM PT. You get $10 too! lastbottlewines.com/invite/0389c5a…

Hey @united, found an edge case on your app/ web site that just doesn’t work. Tried emailing you all and got a form response. What next?

If @karaswisher and @profgalloway did a Mystery Business Theater 3000, I’d watch... #Pivot

@JustinWolfers You probably don’t have to yell at students about not having their name placards either...

I too actually like teaching on Zoom. I learned some new approaches that I’m going to struggle to retain when we return to in-person teaching. nytimes.com/2021/02/15/opi…

@rachelbg First ever Woody Guthrie / JLo mashup.

DeKalb has dropped. Not much of a change but I still see a high end of 15-20k pickup for each dem candidate in the outstanding votes. Good turnout in DeKalb probably just gave Ossoff a win but that race is going to runoff...

Things aren’t moving much. Ranges still where they were an hour ago. Dems gained 5,000 in the latest. I’d call Warnock but not calling Perdue or Ossoff...

The DeKalb votes will tell us a lot. Right now I’m projecting about 25k for Warnock and 7500 for Purdue. But again a bigger turnout changes things...

My initial projection is Warnock by about 20,000-30,000 votes. It’s going to be under 10k votes between Perdue and Ossoff but I’m not ready to predict. Don’t have enough data on turnout...

Of completed counties, Trump won the generals by 400k votes. Not perfect math but I think there are fewer and fewer big GOP drops left. Dems still have DeKalb.

I also compared counties reported vs 2020 general. Most counties at 75-95% of those totals. Cobb, DeKalb, and Gwinnett all around 30%.

@stevie_dmv I was building out my math bro.

Wheres @MattLatt to tell me what’s going on in GA?

75 counties have completed counts as per GA website. Trump won those counties 2-1 in Nov. Hard to see what’s happening in the larger counties as we just don’t know where the votes are coming from...

@StevenACohen2 I'm really intrigued by Matt Wisler - he started using his slider more in 2019 and by 2020 was using it 80% of the time. That led to a lot more missed bats (and yes, more walks, but his control was still pretty good). I'd bet on 2020 as a transition rather than an aberration.

Who was the most interesting player non- tendered and why?

@faderp @DoorDash @d_mccar Would also be interesting to consider scenarios for decay curve shifts (heterogeneous of course) starting when Chase Sapphire Reserve customers lose free DashPass...

Lots of folks asking about the @DoorDash IPO from the lens of #CustomerBasedCorporateValuation. Insights from @d_mccar: there are some encouraging signs but also some strangely missing data. It is important to get the whole picture before making a formal assessment.

@RolenTLe I bet it was @malcolmacs.

🐶😙

@stevie_dmv I’d like to see someone do this at a state level though...

@MattLatt It seems like such basic behavioral psychology. Pretty egregious that an entire industry of well heeled consultants hasn't figured this out yet.

I’ve been reading a lot about the polls and how they were off again. A long time ago, @Gallup demonstrated better performance in polls when people were asked who they thought would win.