@JoshYoung Two different crowds - two different stories. 1.) Adults in the room 2.) Blind MAGA followers. -- you decide which story was for which group ;)
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@MaverickDots
In the end, the only thing that matters is if the trend, or flows, are in your favor. Primarily quant focused - some interest in SMID cap asymmetric stocks.
شامل ہوئے Haziran 2017
175 فالونگ102 فالوورز
Especially after saying the world was rapidly running out of oil, and was at risk of a great depression! x.com/i/status/20673…
Josh Young@JoshYoung
Trump: "we would run out of (oil) reserves at about 4 weeks, you know, there are reserves all over the world, and we would really run out"
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@MaverickDots @jweil130 @michaeljburry The stock went from 500 to 50, bought it at 50, it then went to 10 and then back to 50 so I 5x'd my money baby!
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A stock falls from 100 to 10. That's a 90% decline.
The investor buys in at 10 because it is indeed worth 30.
But it has fallen so much it has become detached from the underlying business and so falls to 5.. The value investor is down 50%.
Which isn't as bad as 90%, but is still 50 effing percent.
The value investor could have sold at 8, and limited the loss.
10 years later the stock is at $30. While said nvestor gies to medical school and finsihes residency to become a surgeon.
That's a six times return in 10 years. About 20% per year.
Wait, is it not only a triple?
No, because the investor could have sold at 5 like just about everyone else did, but did not.
What I describe here is almost exactly WBD. And it didn't take 10 years, because it usually doesn't.
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@from1to4000000 @jweil130 @michaeljburry Because if you bought a stock that went from 500 to 50 then you can't have the stock then go from 50 to 10 in your example to keep the story apples to apples. So which is it?
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@MaverickDots @jweil130 @michaeljburry How do you know the stock didn’t drop from 500 to 50 first before it was bought in my example?
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No - you’re taking a thought experiment too literally. The idea is that every decision should be siloed into point in time decisions not pnl. Compounding poor decisions is the way to ruin. Also, if you bought at 50 and it goes to 10 you made a remarkably poor decision and need to evaluate your skill in analysis lol. Watching a stock go from 100 to 10 and then buying at 10 is completely different than riding an 80% loss from peak. A relative 50% loss in a value trap long term hold is justified at a depressed valuation. I’m just reading tea leaves from a pretty terribly explained thought from an autistic guy that got famous from being right 1 time in almost 20 years. Idk 🤷♂️
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@MaverickDots @jweil130 @michaeljburry So if I buy a stock at 50 and it goes to $10 and then returns to 50, I 5x'd my money? lol
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@BruceKnuteson @P_Remarks Ok this chart is wild if true. I know that 80% of stock appreciation is gap ups but what the actual fuck?
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@P_Remarks Many of the people who think stock prices are "right" still don't know about the strikingly suspicious return patterns that can only be explained by the market manipulation described in ssrn.com/abstract=46190… because nobody has yet widely and honestly reported them.
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I starting buying saas companies for the first time this year this week. I bought $ADBE $CRM and $WDAY. I don’t own it yet but I think I will also buy $NOW. I plan to develop these positions over Q3. I don’t believe the bottom is in but I do believe the immediate term chip top and saas bottom happens in Q3.
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@BradPrick @michaeljburry It’s two trades. 1 shit trade with a 50% loss and a 2nd trade at 6x. But numbers wise yes you are right and he’s retarded.
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@BradPrick @michaeljburry His logic is about sunk cost not opportunity cost.
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He is saying you 6x’d your opportunity cost at a common puke point for most investors. Effectively the 50% loss is sunk cost. So the most important decision is the most recent one and the most recent one in this decision chain is a 6 bagger. Hope that helps. Burry is slightly retarded.
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@rubicon59 I read a bit of his thread. Yeah that game took 5 min to create vs 15 sec for web based. To do anything of value it would be terrible. 100% bait confirmed.
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@rubicon59 Not likely anytime soon. (Years) you need an enormous amount of memory to have anything close to the t/s output from web based chat interfaces. I didn’t look in to that posts claims but I suspect it is largely bait.
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Hot take - we won't have a recession until after 2027. CPI is going to stay sticky regardless of energy prices and energy prices in general is not what is driving sticky core inflation. Even the lag doesn't matter. Nominal GDP will remain quite high through 2027. Why? Because of AI capex. AI capex is causing demand side inflation due to what will amount to trillions of dollars entering the real economy. Also, what that means for stock is the real question. Those trillions aren't going into financial assets they are going into stuff.
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@GavMcCracken You either realize 50% upside over the next year or 3 months. Either is fine with me.
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Anas Alhaji thinks oil is oversold here he said quote "knee jerk reaction to the news".
He also doesn't think we hit tank bottoms or get a huge price spike, taking a moderate view here.
Jeff Currie: "Buckle your seatbelts, I'm long"
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@GaelBreton ehhh... no - codex 2 and gpt x.x are coming out soon. Sam is better friends with the government. It'll be fine.
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I feel like Anthropic broke the AI industry.
Fable is so powerful that no competitor has an answer, so they don't release anything.
Fable is banned because it's so powerful, so even if competitors have an answer, they want to see how it plays out first.
We're basically in a stalemate.
Nothing will happen until this is resolved, one way or another.
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Fable 5 on claude code felt like a better version of codex. codex 2 and gpt 5.6/6.0 is just going to wipe the floor with claude code. Anthropic tuned their LLMs to make you feel like you are doing big things but in fact you are running around in circles overthinking wasting tokens getting nowhere. OMG Fable 5 one shot a shitty video game so much better than GPT 5.5 did! Who cares? Whoever freaks out about things like that isn't actually doing serious work on anything.
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@sin_management The world has completely crumbled without fable 5 huh?
Definitely codex
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@junkbondinvest Not a problem - google underwrites all the private credit risk for anyone that wants in.
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What happens to HY data center bonds if the labs never earn their cost of capital?
junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekl…
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@EnergyCynic @WAR527 oh and they have to sell some stuff too to make it all work. just my opinion.
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@EnergyCynic @WAR527 The land buy... not the merger. But in the end the land buy is probably correct by using todays large cashflows maintaining 70% CF back to shareholders and having extra to build out more volume in a normalized oil environment. Kind of solidified them as a good hold 3-5 years.
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Could the $DVN/ $CTRA deal and subsequent acreage buy have been the short term market top?
SPYKER M UNIT 2H@ShaleTier7
Can someone run Devon’s land sale acquisition economics on strip? Thx.
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@trend_bullish @HFI_Research pish posh - Cramer is known for his deep analysis and thoughtful commentary.
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@HFI_Research I’ll say bottom at 75$… then we will hang between 75 and 95$ for the rest of tge year
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