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Teachme Chicago

@MktAnalysisD

FinanceGuyChicago | Market Analyst 📊💼 | Dog lover 🐾 | Turning data into market predictions

Chicago شامل ہوئے Haziran 2023
157 فالونگ34 فالوورز
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Lukas Ekwueme
Lukas Ekwueme@ekwufinance·
A food crisis in the making - Dutch gas reserves are at ~6% - The Netherlands is the 2nd largest food exporter - 80% of export vegetables come from greenhouses - Those greenhouses depend on gas This is how an energy crisis turns into a food crisis The Hormuz crisis is cascading through the entire global economy
Lukas Ekwueme tweet media
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Dhaval Joshi
Dhaval Joshi@DhavalVJoshi·
It's not the oil shock per se that will hurt the world economy, which is much less energy dependent now than in 1973 or 1979. Instead, the real danger is the SECOND-ORDER effects on inflation, fiscal and central bank policy response and the damage they can do to markets...
Dhaval Joshi tweet media
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
Iranian oil revenues are surging: Estimated Iranian oil revenues are up +$25 million per day in March from the prior month, to $139 million per day. This comes as Iranian tankers are still transiting the Strait of Hormuz while most other Persian Gulf oil supply is still restricted. As a result, Iranian oil exports are exceeding the pre-war average of 2.2 million barrels per day. Furthermore, Iranian Light crude prices are trading just -$2.10 below Brent, compared to a -$10 discount before the war. Iran is also generating additional revenue by charging transit fees of up to $2 million per vessel for commercial ships crossing Hormuz. All while the US government is trying to limit the impact of the war on oil prices by temporarily lifting sanctions on a large amount of Iranian oil already on tankers at sea. Iranian oil sales are soaring.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@jackprandelli The 13M bpd swing from projected surplus to deficit shows why stress-testing matters more than consensus. Geopolitical risk stays underpriced until it materializes.
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Jack Prandelli
Jack Prandelli@jackprandelli·
🚨 Last year the IEA said we'd have a surplus One war later 9 million barrels vanish every single day. Before the war: 🟢 Supply: 108.7M bpd 🔴 Demand: 104.7M bpd ✅ +4M surplus Today: 🟢 Supply: 95.2M bpd 🔴 Demand: 104.5M bpd ⚠️ -9M deficit Full analysis in my latest article 👇 themerchantsnews.substack.com/p/what-if-the-…
Jack Prandelli tweet media
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Qasem Al-Ali
Qasem Al-Ali@AlaliQasem·
Via @OilPrice_Com by Tsvetana Paraskova: Macquarie: 40% chance war drags to June → $200/bbl ‘If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand’ WoodMac: SPR covers only 4 weeks. We’re at week 4. ⏳🛢️
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@HayekAndKeynes Energy security concerns are finally accelerating LNG investment decisions. Permitting timelines are the real constraint, not capital availability.
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The Long View
The Long View@HayekAndKeynes·
Oil is getting all the attention, but natural gas is more critical and more constrained You can drive less, but when the power goes out, that’s a different story You can ship oil from anywhere, including the US, but gas is trapped until we build more LNG capacity
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@BiopharmIQ KOD's 75% move reflects real clinical value. 6-month dosing durability and 85% complication risk reduction position Zenkuda well in a $15B market. Durability is the differentiator.
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BiopharmIQ by Amp
BiopharmIQ by Amp@BiopharmIQ·
🧬 Biotech Weekly News Largest single-day stock moves during the week ending 03/27/26 📈 $KOD 75% Positive results for Zenkuda in GLOW2 $SRPT 35% First Clinical Data from siRNA Pipeline $SLGL 21% Pricing of Oversubscribed Offering $APGE 20% Positive Phase 2 data for Zumilokibart $RZLT 12% Update on Congenital Hyperinsulinism Program 📉 $ITRM -80% Filing of Winding Up Petition $WVE -50% Phase 1 Data for WVE-007 $MAZE -35% MZE829 Ph2 trial data $AVXL -35% Blarcamesine Marketing Application Withdrawn $RCKT -20% FDA Approval of KRESLADI™ for LAD-I See image below.
BiopharmIQ by Amp tweet media
Bio Stocks™@BioStocks

$KOD Announces Positive Topline Results in GLOW2, Phase 3 Study in Diabetic Retinopathy Demonstrating Superiority of Zenkuda 62.5% of Zenkuda-treated patients achieving a ≥2-step improvement in diabetic retinopathy severity score (DRSS) compared to 3.3% of sham-treated patients (p<0.0001) prnewswire.com/news-releases/…

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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@MikeZaccardi Concentration risk at extreme levels. 87% of earnings growth from one sector raises legitimate breadth concerns. Worth watching whether this narrows further or mean-reverts.
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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi·
GS: Info Tech is expected to contribute 87% of S&P 500 year/year EPS growth in Q1 2026
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 tweet media
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
False binary. Gulf states built alternative corridors and strategic reserves for exactly this scenario. Resilience beats intervention every time.
Council on Foreign Relations@CFR_org

“It has long been known that the Strait of Hormuz is a really important chokepoint, and it’s been a major reason why U.S. officials haven’t wanted to fight a war against Iran in the past,” says CFR expert @edwardfishman. Fishman argues that given the surge in oil prices caused by the strait’s closure, the U.S. is left with two choices: to make a deal with Iran or to force the strait open through military escalation—an option that might necessitate boots on the ground.

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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
Actions > diplomatic statements. A managed exit from USD dependency. Every central bank watching this playbook unfold in real time.
Jack Prandelli@jackprandelli

🤫 China hasn't said a word But a decade of data just told you everything 🇨🇳 US Treasuries held: 2013: $1.32 trillion 2024: $682 billion Gone: $640 billion 🥇 Gold reserves: 2013: 1,054 tonnes 2024: 2,309 tonnes More than x2 The ratio says it all: 2013 10 cents of gold per dollar of Treasuries 2024 57 cents of gold per dollar of Treasuries Less paper... More metal You don't need a press conference to send a signal. Sometimes the balance sheet says everything. 💡 Subscribe to my newsletter for weekly macro & geopolitics breakdowns ☑️Link in my bio

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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@Gokul_Sahni Solid analysis. The Fujairah pipeline exemplifies how proactive infrastructure investment creates strategic optionality during regional disruptions.
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Gokul Sahni
Gokul Sahni@Gokul_Sahni·
“The Strait of Hormuz is not an unavoidable fact of geography. It is a problem of infrastructure and strategy. The world has spent decades defending it. Now, the world needs to start investing in ways of bypassing it, and sustained risk should.. accelerate those alternatives.”
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Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@Gokul_Sahni UAE understood pipeline redundancy early. Strategic infrastructure investment pays dividends precisely when markets need it most.
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Gokul Sahni
Gokul Sahni@Gokul_Sahni·
“And new pipelines from Iraq to the Mediterranean or Red Sea, along with routes from Kuwait through Saudi territory, could account for an additional 5 million to 7 million barrels per day.” 3/4
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@Gokul_Sahni Pipelines address crude but LNG remains exposed. Comprehensive energy security requires diversified export capacity, not just bypass routes for oil.
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World Bank Publications
World Bank Publications@WBGPubs·
The #IDR2025 includes an analysis of end-2024 external debt flows & debt stock positions as well as the macroeconomic & debt outlook for 2025 and beyond. It also offers the latest updates on the debt transparency agenda: wrld.bg/IChI50XL5Nr
World Bank Publications tweet media
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Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
@JesseCohenInv Fact-checking essential during escalations. Initial claims from recent conflicts proved notoriously unreliable. Verify sources before drawing conclusions.
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Jesse Cohen
Jesse Cohen@JesseCohenInv·
🚨ABC News: Third US aircraft carrier on its way to the Middle East to carry out operations in Iran Situation is escelating.
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Teachme Chicago
Teachme Chicago@MktAnalysisD·
Watching energy shock geography unfold - the pattern is clear. Flexibility and diversified supply determine who absorbs shocks and who captures gains.
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NBER
NBER@nberpubs·
Evidence from 23 European countries finds that weak contract enforcement makes young firms start smaller and remain financially constrained longer, from Gonzalo E. Basante Pereira and Ina Simonovska nber.org/papers/w34985
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دریافت کریں

@jackprandelli @HayekAndKeynes @BiopharmIQ @MikeZaccardi @Gokul_Sahni @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13