Ansgar Graw
11.8K posts

Ansgar Graw
@Potomaker
Herausgeber The European / Editorial Director WEIMER MEDIA GROUP / Zuvor 4 Jahre Singapur / 20+ Jahre Axel Springer, u.a. als US-Korrespondent WELT / Buchautor


Änderungen im Herausgebergremium der @faznet: Braunberger geht, Knop übernimmt, Bubrowski kommt faz.net/aktuell/aender…








Mission accomplished! 🕺🏻💥🎉 Mein Buch #ZonenDerAngst ist bei @CHBeckLiteratur erschienen!📚 Es kann ab sofort hier (oder überall wo‘s Bücher gibt) gekauft werden: 👇🏽 chbeck.de/roth-zonen-ang… Feedback erwünscht! 🙏🏾





Der Philosoph der Bundesrepublik ist tot: Ein Nachruf auf Jürgen #Habermas, wichtigster Vertreter der Frankfurter Schule, dessen Theorien nicht immer der Realität standhielten. Von @Potomaker Ansgar Graw @theeuropean theeuropean.de/wissenschaft/e…

BREAKING: The Mosaic Doctrine was designed to survive decapitation from above. It was not designed to survive fracture from below. And the fracture just appeared in the one province that matters more than the other thirty combined. The Assembly of Arab Tribes of Iranian Khuzestan, representing Bani Kaab, Bani Tamim, and Bani Lam, issued a formal declaration on 9 March calling for the complete overthrow of the Islamic Republic, a secular democratic government, equal citizenship for all ethnicities, preservation of Iran’s territorial integrity, and fair distribution of oil revenues to Khuzestan residents. They explicitly endorsed exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as the unifying national figure for transition. Khuzestan produces 60 to 70% of Iran’s crude oil. The fields around Ahvaz and Abadan are the economic foundation of the Islamic Republic. The IRGC’s Khuzestan provincial command, one of the 31 autonomous units now operating under Mosaic Doctrine, controls those fields. It has missiles, drones, Basij militias, and pre-delegated firing authority. What it does not have, and what no provincial command can manufacture, is the consent of the population living on top of the oil. This is the variable the doctrine did not model. Jafari designed the Mosaic system to survive the death of the Supreme Leader, the destruction of central command, and the loss of air defences. He built 31 self-sustaining military units that can fight indefinitely without Tehran. What he could not build was a mechanism to prevent the people of Khuzestan, who have protested oil wealth extraction for decades, who were massacred in 2005 and 2019, who watched their water diverted and their rivers run dry, from deciding that the regime’s decapitation was their opportunity. Reza Pahlavi accepted the role of transitional leader on 8 March. His framework is specific: a six-month Emergency Phase under the Iran Prosperity Project, restoration of civil liberties, prevention of chaos, then a free national referendum where Iranians choose their permanent system. He explicitly rejects hereditary monarchy or permanent office. On 3 March he addressed Iran’s ethnic minorities directly: Kurds, Azeris, Lurs, Baluch, Arabs. “Equal citizenship rights. No discrimination.” Over one million Iranians marched worldwide on 14 February in response. The Khuzestan declaration is the first formal tribal endorsement from inside Iran’s strategic oil heartland linking to his framework. It rejects separatism. It demands unity. It names specific tribes. And it emerged from a province where the IRGC provincial commander now faces a choice the doctrine never anticipated: use his autonomous authority to suppress the population sitting on the oil fields, or let the legitimacy fracture widen while his missiles point outward at the Gulf. Every barrel of Iranian crude that still flows, every refinery that still operates, every pipeline that still functions depends on Khuzestan. The Mosaic Doctrine keeps the missiles flying. It does not keep the oil workers working, the pipelines maintained, or the population compliant. If Khuzestan’s Arab tribes translate this declaration into coordinated non-cooperation, the IRGC does not lose a military battle. It loses the economic base that funds every provincial command in the country. The doctrine has no off switch from above. The oil fields have one from below. Full analysis in the link. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…




Die Angriffe Israels und der USA auf den Iran sind völkerrechtswidrig. Inmitten von Verhandlungen stürzen sie die ganze Region in den Krieg und die Eskalation. Darunter leiden vor allem die Menschen, die gerade erst gegen Folter und Hinrichtung des Regimes protestierten.


