
Priced Uncertainty
69 posts

Priced Uncertainty
@PricedUncertain
Prediction markets accelerationist. “Text is the artifact. Choice is the source.”
شامل ہوئے Haziran 2026
139 فالونگ42 فالوورز
پن کیا گیا ٹویٹ

@AdamDraper Once it is clear we are going post-scarcity due to AI, health disparity will be how humans stratify. Lot and lots of opportunity. Bio-hacking / de-aging will have a bigger TAM than space.
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This was absolutely, money lying on the ground to be picked up.
kalshi.com/markets/kxtrum…
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@AutismCapital Federal sting. Newsom, Bass, and the state elections officials are going to PRISON.
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@Pat_RickUSA The whole thing is a federal sting operation to nail Newsom for fraud
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Raman literally came out crying and basically conceded the election on Election Night, and I’m supposed to believe that her “surge” these past couple of days isn’t fraudulent???
Kalshi Politics@KalshiPolitics
BREAKING: Nithya Raman’s odds to advance in the LA Mayor race increase to 95%
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@Polymarket Everyone knows that the Democrats are stealing the election. The market is way ahead of it, what will the administration do?
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The only thing growing faster than the artificial-intelligence industry may be Americans’ negative feelings about it. on.wsj.com/3S2KU0k

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Prediction markets offer the lure of fast money. Young men say they like their odds.
cbsn.ws/3RODDkQ
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@atmoio Writing is what humans did after they learned how to make decisions. AI learned to write. Next it learns to decide. That dataset just doesn’t exist yet. When it does, that’s when everyone should actually be scared.
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The funny thing about the AI “intelligence” revolution is that AI is basically a writer. Writing what? Anything. Prose. Poetry. Code. Math. It can write.
And the question is, if you automated writing, how disruptive is that?
It’s not nothing. But also, it’s a pretty whimsical premise right? Like ha wow writing is solved, THEREFORE EVERYONE AND EVERYTHING IS TRULY FUCKED. Like what? How did you get there?
IT CAN WRITE A LOT. REALLY FAST.
oooo, spooky
Clearly the non-delusional take is every human gains an expensive writing/research assistant. And this is clearly, demonstrably the full extent of the revolution.
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@BoringBiz_ Trump should pardon SBF and he should be put in charge of a sovereign wealth fund but monitored 24/7
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@Krispi_Largo @ABC7 He was a decel with crazy p doom
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@PricedUncertain @ABC7 Why would his location be turned off?
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#BREAKING James "Weston" Higginbotham, the 20-year-old American student missing in Japan since last week, was found dead by volunteers searching a mountainous area near Kyoto, his mother said in a Facebook post on Saturday.
He was reported missing on May 29 while on a trip with his family, after he stopped responding to his family's messages on the phone and turned off his location, according to authorities.
abc7.la/XIpaqa

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@chamath This is actually very astute. It may also play out for ride-share once vehicles are FSD and can be used for trips when not driven by the primary.
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Capital investment cycles are not always extremely short - like they are in tech. In many non tech businesses, they can be extremely long and sneak up on you. And it can affect investor returns massively.
Look at Airbnb. I was curious to understand why the company was range bound despite the underlying economics.
What few hosts realized when they joined Airbnb is that after many years of guests, their homes would become “well used” and sometimes dilapidated and require upgrades, updates and general maintenance/TLC. Otherwise guest quality would trend down and their pricing power would go down with it.
Even though Airbnb is asset light, after so many years in the market they are now more levered to the capital investment cycle, home improvement ability and, as a result, the credit quality of their hosts, downstream.
That’s a much tougher (read, low return) business than an asset light marketplace. That affects return assumptions.
And that, more than anything else, has influenced the stock since going public, imo.
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