bullish kirby

FAKE. Be especially careful when quoting someone verbatim. The claim that Gharibabadi said Iran would “never start negotiations with the US under any circumstances” is a complete fabrication. He said no such thing. His actual statement was that Iran had been engaged in negotiations, but that the US had violated its commitments under the Islamabad MoU, leading Iran to suspend its obligations under that memorandum. That is not the same as saying Iran has officially withdrawn from or permanently ended the negotiation process. No other news account/outlet has published the paragraph you reported, which makes this even more concerning. Please be precise when quoting people's words.

Balaji is getting the Malaysia special. Malaysia Protest 4 Palestine isn’t the issue here. It’s Malaysian Pay 4 Play. You can’t do anything in the country without making sure you “align interests” with the right people. Lots of people clowning on Balaji but he’s not retarded. He definitely had some level of assurance before setting up in Forest City. It’s not hard to guess where his backers might be. Forest City is owned by 60% Chinese developers and 40% Johor, with the approval of the Sultan of Johor, the richest Malaysian Sultan, who is now literally King of Malaysia. The Chinese rugged Forest City after they withdrew from One Belt One Road. Forest City is now a ghost town - despite significant investment in - population is about 8000. About 1000 are Balaji’s people. A non negligible portion of the population service network school (the other small group of visitors are golfers). Without these USD wielding immigrants, many of the Forest City residents would have moved to Johor Bahru or another city. There are people in power in Malaysia that want to see Forest City revitalised. There’s a lot of money in that. Balaji’s 100m MYR investment isn’t much but it justifies them printing hundreds of millions more to continue development. He is in trouble now because he has found some success and now the other factions want their pound of flesh, knowing he has money. Malaysian authorities have this incredible superpower of being able to magic up licenses and regulations until they get paid. He’s currently being slapped by the education regulator and investigated by the immigration authorities. Note they haven’t kicked him out completely or shut the door to NS, it’s simply a lot of posturing. The message is clear - whoever was protecting you hasn’t paid us off. So get with the programme and *ahem* make sure you have the right licenses. I’d be very surprised if Balaji hasn’t already been solicited by a dozen middlemen offering to get him the right licenses to make the problems go away. Most of them likely scammers. Balaji’s difficulty level is also set at Indian, which is higher even than Chinese in Malaysia. The next few days are now critical for Balaji and will determine whether he will be heralded as the tech Prometheus of Malaysia, or persecuted as a Jew loving Indian that practises sodomy (a Malaysia special!) It all comes down to getting… the right licenses.

@EventualNews great episode

Watch the full show here, including ⚔️ The Odyssey 🏛️ Todd Blanche’s confirmation 👽Is the truth out there?

2 PM ET / 11 AM PT, Live on Eventual: @Domahhhh @pjchougule And returning from retirement, the legendary @ZoltarSSG

On June 13, Polymarket removed the taker delay for all World Cup matches. Here's what a goal looks like without it for the ARG win market at the 85' mark: - 13,848 shares were resting within 5¢ of the ask when the ball crossed - 90% of all cancels occurred within 65ms of each other - First post-goal taker order lands 63ms behind the cancels and picks off less than $800 - Total sniped on a 3x book move: <$1,000 (600+ total active maker addresses, 11 adversely filled)

Should the global tech community continue investing in Malaysia? Given recent events, I raise this question respectfully for the consideration of Prime Minister Yang Amat Berhormat Dato’ Seri Anwar bin Ibrahim (@anwaribrahim), for the people of Malaysia, and for our friends in the Malaysian tech community. The answer will be of interest to anyone in global tech that’s considering building, investing, or expanding in Malaysia, including executives at Google, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft, founders of tech unicorns like Coinbase and Solana, and investors at the world’s largest venture capital funds like a16z and Polychain. As context, I am the former CTO of Coinbase and former General Partner at a16z. In October 2024, I opened a startup society called Network School in Malaysia, because I felt I’d been invited in by the government’s pro-tech policies. Specifically, the KL20 initiative set out Malaysia’s ambition of becoming a top 20 global tech hub. Their MDEC digital nomad visas and MM2H investor visas were created to facilitate an influx of global talent and capital. And the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone was announced to facilitate the flow of capital and talent between Malaysia and Singapore, where I live. When taken in combination with Malaysia’s datacenter buildout and its policy of welcoming visa-free visits for 98% of the world, it seemed like Malaysia might be a great place to build a global tech hub that was simultaneously inexpensive and easy to visit (especially for non-Westerners). And that’s what we did, by creating Network School. It’s an international tech community with its first node in Forest City, Malaysia. We picked Forest City because it had millions of square feet of empty space, because it was one hour from Singapore’s capital markets, and because it was within the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone. Then, within 18 months, without a single penny of government money, we built Network School into a global attraction that brought thousands of engineers, investors, and builders from 70+ countries to learn technology, burn calories, earn online, and have fun, integrating with the local Malaysian economy along the way. Indeed, in terms of quantifiable contribution to the Malaysian economy, we’ve already invested 100M+ MYR in our campus to make it startup-friendly. For perspective, that’s about 4% of the budget of Johor, the Malaysian state where Forest City is located. We employ dozens of Malaysians directly and indirectly at every level from executive to staff. We’ve backed Malaysian tech startups like Collektr, hosted events for local teams like Superteam Malaysia, and are major customers of many local businesses like barbers, laundromats, and restaurants. We’ve also revitalized the multibillion-dollar Forest City project, causing millions of MYR in real estate appreciation. And, as the video below describes, we were on the cusp of a 500M+ MYR expansion to grow our community, as well as a global merit scholarship with my friend Amjad Masad of Replit. However, that emerging multi-billion dollar success story — which should rightfully have been hailed as a huge victory for the pro-tech policies of the Malaysian government — is at risk of being derailed by a fake story spread by an anonymous account named MP4P. In short: on the day before the July 11 Johor elections, MP4P posted an Instagram post falsely accusing Network School of harboring illegal aliens. The sensational accusations caused a tizzy in Malaysia, until Malaysian authorities came to our campus on July 14 to investigate. (I should note that the officers were very polite and professional.) After checking hundreds of physical passports from 40 countries, including dual passport holders, the authorities confirmed to the press on July 15 that all travel documents were in order. During the process, we cooperated fully; in the thread below you can see a photo of the men, women, and children of Network School smiling and holding up their passports in the bright daylight. Our faces are shown and our names are known; we have nothing to hide. With that said, the process is the punishment. What MP4P did is very similar to the American crime of “swatting”, because MP4P created a hoax report of a serious threat, thereby forcing the Malaysian police to take time away from protecting the Malaysian people towards investigating a nonexistent issue. Moreover, this anonymous MP4P account has also called for Malaysia to boycott Apple, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft…a move that would cost ordinary Malaysians thousands of jobs…even while MP4P’s own Instagram collaborators promote their Apple and Google apps! I mean, we aren’t talking about a credible accuser, but just someone screaming inconsistently at the top of their lungs on social media for traffic, an all-too-common phenomenon these days. Anyway, at this point, all further investment we were planning to make in Malaysia is on hold until we get sufficient assurance that such issues won’t recur. So are the investment plans of many of our friends, including the execs and investors at global tech firms that we brought to Forest City. Because to put it very plainly: we have invested 100M+ MYR in Malaysia, while creating jobs for dozens of Malaysians, and our faces and names are known. Our Malaysian executives and employees deserve the benefit of the doubt over anonymous internet trolls. There are two paths forward. In the first case, if Malaysia still wants continued global tech investment, if it wants to be a top 20 tech hub, if it wants us to revitalize Forest City, then we request an audience with the Prime Minister’s office to discuss the terms of a memorandum of understanding between Network School and the Malaysian government, similar to the document recently signed between the Solana Foundation and the Kazakhstan government. Specifics can of course be discussed, but we would publicly commit to abiding by all Malaysian laws (we already do) and respecting Malaysia’s sovereignty (never in question). In return, they’d get to know our friendly community, and realize that we actually chose Malaysia because we thought it was a great place to build a tech hub where engineers from the global South, investors from the West, and builders from Malaysia itself could meet new people, build cool things, and perhaps create millions of dollars in economic growth in the fullness of time. That vision of peace and trade, internationalism and entrepreneurialism, is still on the table. We aren’t asking for any money — just a meeting, to help restore confidence in Malaysia as an investable jurisdiction. Alternatively, if you don’t want our investment, or those of our colleagues at billion dollar funds and trillion dollar companies, we will of course respect your wishes, and reallocate our capital to other countries instead. Either way, we will remain friends and abide by your decision. Please let us know.

Jump Trading has doubled its prediction markets team this year to about 20 and plans to keep hiring Head of PM Simon Johansen tells me and @iboudway at this rate Super Bowl 2027 looks due for another 10x in volumes “It’s probably the most AI-resistant industry that exists. People are always going to want to watch sports.”

@tsybka @PolymarketTrade this is mostly about kharg island

Once again, the market is pricing a U.S. ground invasion of Iran by EOY unusually high at 23c following the latest escalation. But does Trump actually want that? I have serious doubts. A ground invasion wouldn’t fundamentally change the situation, while taking heavy casualties just ahead of the midterm elections would be one of the worst political outcomes imaginable. Tbh, I have no idea what the U.S. objective is at this point. Iran has repeatedly shown it won’t back down on Hormuz, and I think Trump will ultimately have to accept at least some of the Ayatollah regime’s demands. I’m starting to lose interest in this conflict because of its repetitive nature and the lack of a clear endgame behind the current strikes.

what your risk-aversion costs you

imo the best heuristic for force-ranking real economic activity on a crypto venue is actually *liquidations* 1) the incentive for the exchanges to fake it is absent, as opposed to volume or OI which are headline metrics 2) the incentive is also absent for users - nobody wants to get liquidated, no fee benefits / rebates, indicative of real loss by this metric, HL (+XYZ) actually ranks 2nd, with $63.9mm in 24h liquidations, which is 40% more than bybit's $45.6mm (binance comfortably in 1st with $567mm, which is still underreported) it's not perfect, the feeds vary in completeness and quality, not all venues provide it, etc but if you want a quick at-a-glance ranking of where users are trading, take a look at liquidations

Stopping your worst habit, is often a more important priority, than trying to stack a new one on top of it.

Wow, didn't realize I followed all these people. *Clicks unfollow*

How a successful evaluation of the future from the past as an outcome in the present feels like when it increases your speculative value

Now introducing Kalshi Pro Trade multiple markets with maximum speed, efficiency, and customizability.

People are actually ending up in the hospital with stress from trying to escape the permanent underclass

When young people would rather bet on the future than build one, the problem is bigger than gambling. It means the normal path feels closed. The answer isn’t another lecture about discipline. It’s more real upside from work: skills, equity, ownership, and a believable path forward. People need skin in the game.

being a hater is a negative EV strategy

LMAO THANK YOU ELON

A man was discovered with almost 90% of his brain mass missing, while leading an almost normal life as a listings manager at Binance.