RecessionALERT
1.9K posts
@RecessionAlert
⚙ Quantitative models for leading U.S. & global macro indicators ⚠ U.S. Recession probability models ⏱ S&P 500 market timing 🌐 Geopolitical risk analysis
Remember, if the big banks are "offering" you a way to make money, you're the exit liquidity.
European governments systematically dismantled viable nuclear fleets in pursuit of cheap imported gas — first from Russia, then Qatar — driven by short-term cost savings, political optics, and a misguided green agenda that ironically replaced zero-emission energy with fossil fuel dependency. With Iran attacking Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility and the Strait of Hormuz closed to tanker traffic, European wholesale gas prices have already doubled in recent weeks. We are now witnessing the consequences in real time. Trading energy independence and security for geopolitical exposure and political point-scoring will almost certainly be recorded as the single greatest policy error of the modern era. One has to ask: what were they thinking?
In February 2020, markets were at all-time highs while the COVID case count was building exponentially in China. The repricing when it came was not gradual — it was a 34% crash in 33 days. The energy deficit building right now has the same structure. 15.4 million barrels a day wiped from Gulf exports. Both bypass routes struck. The SPR at 1980s lows. The IEA's record reserve release covers four days of the shortfall. South Pars on fire. LNG contracts suspended. The only door still open through Hormuz charges yuan. Visible in the data. Not yet priced in full consequence. With a non-linear tipping point when the SPR runs out, the IEA second release proves insufficient, and the market realises there is no remaining buffer between the deficit and the price. The market is pricing a disruption that ends when the shooting stops. It isn't pricing what happens when the buffer runs out. Full analysis: recessionalert.com/grandchessboar… #Oil #Energy #Iran #OperationEpicFury #GeopoliticalRisk
In February 2020, markets were at all-time highs while the COVID case count was building exponentially in China. The repricing when it came was not gradual — it was a 34% crash in 33 days. The energy deficit building right now has the same structure. 15.4 million barrels a day wiped from Gulf exports. Both bypass routes struck. The SPR at 1980s lows. The IEA's record reserve release covers four days of the shortfall. South Pars on fire. LNG contracts suspended. The only door still open through Hormuz charges yuan. Visible in the data. Not yet priced in full consequence. With a non-linear tipping point when the SPR runs out, the IEA second release proves insufficient, and the market realises there is no remaining buffer between the deficit and the price. The market is pricing a disruption that ends when the shooting stops. It isn't pricing what happens when the buffer runs out. Full analysis: recessionalert.com/grandchessboar… #Oil #Energy #Iran #OperationEpicFury #GeopoliticalRisk
In February 2020, markets were at all-time highs while the COVID case count was building exponentially in China. The repricing when it came was not gradual — it was a 34% crash in 33 days. The energy deficit building right now has the same structure. 15.4 million barrels a day wiped from Gulf exports. Both bypass routes struck. The SPR at 1980s lows. The IEA's record reserve release covers four days of the shortfall. South Pars on fire. LNG contracts suspended. The only door still open through Hormuz charges yuan. Visible in the data. Not yet priced in full consequence. With a non-linear tipping point when the SPR runs out, the IEA second release proves insufficient, and the market realises there is no remaining buffer between the deficit and the price. The market is pricing a disruption that ends when the shooting stops. It isn't pricing what happens when the buffer runs out. Full analysis: recessionalert.com/grandchessboar… #Oil #Energy #Iran #OperationEpicFury #GeopoliticalRisk
In February 2020, markets were at all-time highs while the COVID case count was building exponentially in China. The repricing when it came was not gradual — it was a 34% crash in 33 days. The energy deficit building right now has the same structure. 15.4 million barrels a day wiped from Gulf exports. Both bypass routes struck. The SPR at 1980s lows. The IEA's record reserve release covers four days of the shortfall. South Pars on fire. LNG contracts suspended. The only door still open through Hormuz charges yuan. Visible in the data. Not yet priced in full consequence. With a non-linear tipping point when the SPR runs out, the IEA second release proves insufficient, and the market realises there is no remaining buffer between the deficit and the price. The market is pricing a disruption that ends when the shooting stops. It isn't pricing what happens when the buffer runs out. Full analysis: recessionalert.com/grandchessboar… #Oil #Energy #Iran #OperationEpicFury #GeopoliticalRisk
In February 2020, markets were at all-time highs while the COVID case count was building exponentially in China. The repricing when it came was not gradual — it was a 34% crash in 33 days. The energy deficit building right now has the same structure. 15.4 million barrels a day wiped from Gulf exports. Both bypass routes struck. The SPR at 1980s lows. The IEA's record reserve release covers four days of the shortfall. South Pars on fire. LNG contracts suspended. The only door still open through Hormuz charges yuan. Visible in the data. Not yet priced in full consequence. With a non-linear tipping point when the SPR runs out, the IEA second release proves insufficient, and the market realises there is no remaining buffer between the deficit and the price. The market is pricing a disruption that ends when the shooting stops. It isn't pricing what happens when the buffer runs out. Full analysis: recessionalert.com/grandchessboar… #Oil #Energy #Iran #OperationEpicFury #GeopoliticalRisk
In February 2020, markets were at all-time highs while the COVID case count was building exponentially in China. The repricing when it came was not gradual — it was a 34% crash in 33 days. The energy deficit building right now has the same structure. 15.4 million barrels a day wiped from Gulf exports. Both bypass routes struck. The SPR at 1980s lows. The IEA's record reserve release covers four days of the shortfall. South Pars on fire. LNG contracts suspended. The only door still open through Hormuz charges yuan. Visible in the data. Not yet priced in full consequence. With a non-linear tipping point when the SPR runs out, the IEA second release proves insufficient, and the market realises there is no remaining buffer between the deficit and the price. The market is pricing a disruption that ends when the shooting stops. It isn't pricing what happens when the buffer runs out. Full analysis: recessionalert.com/grandchessboar… #Oil #Energy #Iran #OperationEpicFury #GeopoliticalRisk
In February 2020, markets were at all-time highs while the COVID case count was building exponentially in China. The repricing when it came was not gradual — it was a 34% crash in 33 days. The energy deficit building right now has the same structure. 15.4 million barrels a day wiped from Gulf exports. Both bypass routes struck. The SPR at 1980s lows. The IEA's record reserve release covers four days of the shortfall. South Pars on fire. LNG contracts suspended. The only door still open through Hormuz charges yuan. Visible in the data. Not yet priced in full consequence. With a non-linear tipping point when the SPR runs out, the IEA second release proves insufficient, and the market realises there is no remaining buffer between the deficit and the price. The market is pricing a disruption that ends when the shooting stops. It isn't pricing what happens when the buffer runs out. Full analysis: recessionalert.com/grandchessboar… #Oil #Energy #Iran #OperationEpicFury #GeopoliticalRisk
🇺🇸 Sec. Bessent: "I think we have to get the American people and our entire government back in the mindset of: there is no prosperity without security."
In February 2020, markets were at all-time highs while the COVID case count was building exponentially in China. The repricing when it came was not gradual — it was a 34% crash in 33 days. The energy deficit building right now has the same structure. 15.4 million barrels a day wiped from Gulf exports. Both bypass routes struck. The SPR at 1980s lows. The IEA's record reserve release covers four days of the shortfall. South Pars on fire. LNG contracts suspended. The only door still open through Hormuz charges yuan. Visible in the data. Not yet priced in full consequence. With a non-linear tipping point when the SPR runs out, the IEA second release proves insufficient, and the market realises there is no remaining buffer between the deficit and the price. The market is pricing a disruption that ends when the shooting stops. It isn't pricing what happens when the buffer runs out. Full analysis: recessionalert.com/grandchessboar… #Oil #Energy #Iran #OperationEpicFury #GeopoliticalRisk
In February 2020, markets were at all-time highs while the COVID case count was building exponentially in China. The repricing when it came was not gradual — it was a 34% crash in 33 days. The energy deficit building right now has the same structure. 15.4 million barrels a day wiped from Gulf exports. Both bypass routes struck. The SPR at 1980s lows. The IEA's record reserve release covers four days of the shortfall. South Pars on fire. LNG contracts suspended. The only door still open through Hormuz charges yuan. Visible in the data. Not yet priced in full consequence. With a non-linear tipping point when the SPR runs out, the IEA second release proves insufficient, and the market realises there is no remaining buffer between the deficit and the price. The market is pricing a disruption that ends when the shooting stops. It isn't pricing what happens when the buffer runs out. Full analysis: recessionalert.com/grandchessboar… #Oil #Energy #Iran #OperationEpicFury #GeopoliticalRisk
