It’s a good thing Santa Clara saved 3 timeouts for overtime!
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Official Member of Jersey Jerry’s Army
987 posts
Official Member of Jersey Jerry’s Army
@RisingCapper
Horns Up 🤘class of 2008 || I occasionally give out some locks; Proud JJA member #jerseyjerryarmy @jerrythekid21
شامل ہوئے Temmuz 2022
99 فالونگ194 فالوورز
@T3Bracketology I think issues 1 & 2 would be solved if we just rebalanced conferences to be geography-based
To state the obvious, we’re in an unfortunate trade-off between execs making money that comes at the cost of the integrity of the sport
And as always, the former wins out
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@T3Bracketology This logic has to work both ways btw
T3@T3Bracketology
Losing in a single elimination tournament doesn’t mean a team didn’t deserve to make March Madness
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@cfrederick29 @matthewwinick Pretty sure Zion’s rookie season PER would rank 9th overall this year
And within his rookie season, his numbers did improve over the year, but only narrowly
Among the players drafted very high, I’m not sure the contrast is as stark as people portray
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@matthewwinick I get the point you’re trying to make but you have to agree a future top pick vs even a 2 year actual veteran in the nba are not even in the same arena in terms of talent and execution.
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We always do these stupid hypotheticals about “how good would a random college basketball team be if they had an NBA player on it?”
Just turn on the BYU game right now. You’ll have your answer.
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@sportsf80 @sports_reliable @ProLOWD I concede it is in fact dumb that I respond to stupid discourse on Twitter, yes
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@RisingCapper @sports_reliable @ProLOWD Yeah, but that’s just a dumb discourse to start. In the same breath, nobody has played any other team enough to prove they’re better over a large sample size. Who the hell wants to have a discussion about basketball in that way?
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SMU was 43 spots higher than Miami on KenPom and favored by 7.5, but it turns out the 1 loss team was 10 points better than the 13 loss team
Professionally LOWD@ProLOWD
I do think Akron is a good team and am definitely a believer in analytics, but I do sometimes think we need to dumb it down for things like deciding whether an undefeated team is better than a 5-loss team who they beat
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@sports_reliable @sportsf80 @ProLOWD A couple very obvious examples that should make it obvious that this is not ‘cause and effect’ as you seem to think:
- 2018 UMBC v UVA (UVA was ofc a better team despite losing by 20)
- 2026 St. John’s v UCONN (blew each other out pick your poison)
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@RisingCapper @sportsf80 @ProLOWD They are the better team. They beat them by double digits on the actual court.
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@baritxne @sportsf80 @sports_reliable @ProLOWD Yeah you’re not wrong. The point here is that it’s what makes March great that the best team doesn’t always win & advance
It’s equally irrelevant to declare Miami a ‘better’ team (I just can’t help myself in refuting a misguided viewpoint)
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@RisingCapper @sportsf80 @sports_reliable @ProLOWD it's irrelevant to debate hypotheticals about which team would win more when the tournament is win or go home.
teams that are consistent at what they do well are best suited for march bc that's the only constant in one-off games. and you can't be 31-0 w/o being consistent
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@sportsf80 @sports_reliable @ProLOWD Yeah 100% agree
That doesn’t change the fact that the discourse around Miami being a better team isn’t absurd (and misinformed)
The better team doesn’t always win - and that’s okay! But let’s not pretend otherwise
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@RisingCapper @sports_reliable @ProLOWD I agree that one game is not representative of what would happen if they played many times, but that’s life. It’s your job to win the big games put in front of you. SMU couldn’t do it. CBB and life are based on reality, not hypotheticals
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@EstateWill19959 @ProLOWD Idk who told you that but it sure as heck wasn’t me!
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@RisingCapper @ProLOWD I've been told by these very people that record is all that matters, so the Badgers are for sure better than Illinois and equal to Michigan.
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@sportsf80 @sports_reliable @ProLOWD Conflating? C’mon lol
The point is watching one game is not representative of extrapolating out what would happen if they played a large number of times
Look at St. John’s and UCONN this year if you want teams of similar caliber
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@RisingCapper @sports_reliable @ProLOWD Conflating a 16 seed beating a 1 seed to two at large 11 seeds in the first four is crazy
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@jvd0730 @DRPKING96 @ChalkboardHQ Material difference for sure! If you look at Flagg/Zion’s numbers though, maybe not as dramatic of an increase as you’d think
I’m not trying to undermine the talent difference just emphasize how different the supporting cast of having 4 OTHER nba players vs non nba players is
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@RisingCapper @DRPKING96 @ChalkboardHQ They were not NBA players at the time. Flagg and other people in the line have improved dramatically under the NBA routine.
There is a huge difference between them as college players, and Wemby who has multiple years of NBA experience under his belt.
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Would Miami Ohio win the Natty if they had Wemby on their team? 👀
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@ProLOWD For the bracket selection discussions, 100%
Curious if you have a substantive rebuttal?
The key here is recognizing that while Auburn/SMU may win > 50% of the time if they played Miami an infinite number of times, that doesn’t mean they should make the tourney over Miami!
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Reader beware - my discourse is dangerous
Official Member of Jersey Jerry’s Army@RisingCapper
@ProLOWD This is a fundamental misunderstanding of statistics and is dangerous discourse Let’s say it’s true SMU is actually 7.5 points better than Miami. Miami will still win something like 20% of the time? That does not make them better. The better team doesn’t always win
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@sports_reliable @ProLOWD This addresses my point… not at all
UCONN beat St. John’s by 32 in February and lost by 20 less than a month later
A single game observation is a remarkably low sample size and expecting it to be representative of all games is a fallacy - bad extrapolation!
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@RisingCapper @ProLOWD They virtually led wire to wire, they got whatever they wanted on offense and even left points on the board and won by double digits. Yes i think the team that went 31-0 and beat them handedly would beat them more times than not
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@sports_reliable @ProLOWD The same way you’d say UMBC would beat UVA 9 times out of 10 if you watched that game in 2018?
That’s an extreme example of course, but perfect illustration of the point
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@RisingCapper @ProLOWD If you watched the game last night youd probably come to the realization that miami wins against them at least 8 out of 10 teams
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@Retire55JP @matthewwinick In theory sure but that’s not how it works in practice
KenPom and Torvik are directionally very similar to betting close lines
And betting close lines *cannot* be manipulated to show whatever they want else they’d be unprofitable
Thus they are exceptionally precise
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@RisingCapper @matthewwinick That’s just not true. Those metrics aren’t god. They can be manipulated to show whatever teams they want to show as the best. It’s all made up to help the “power” conferences
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Cinderella isn’t a team that is DEMONSTRABLY better than its opponent like Miami Ohio is showing against SMU right now.
Jon Rothstein@JonRothstein
Cinderella isn't dead.
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@Retire55JP @matthewwinick Sure - I don’t even disagree with that
All I’m saying is Auburn is still better than Miami. If they played an infinite number of times, Auburn wins > 50%
That doesn’t mean Auburn should be in the tourney over Miami. Those two things don’t have to be conflated
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@RisingCapper @matthewwinick All of those bullshit “metrics” are why the tourney is trash now. No team like auburn should EVER be considered over a team like Miami
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@WestPineBills @peteybuckets Nobody is disputing this
The dispute is that the difference is not greater than that of the combined difference in supporting casts
Let’s even say the trade-off is almost equal - you’d have a ~50% chance to win a game. And you’d have to do that 6 times in a row (1.6% chance!)
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@peteybuckets 22 year old Wemby >>>> freshmen Flagg and Knueppel
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I can promise you that every single team in the country would win the national title if they had Wemby
Chalkboard@ChalkboardHQ
Would Miami Ohio win the Natty if they had Wemby on their team? 👀
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@FantasyGod03 @YouAreWorthNada @ChalkboardHQ Cooper Flagg averaged 18ppg in his first month in the NBA
And was surrounded by nba talent (4 teammates taken in the draft last year)
And didn’t win March Madness
But you want to talk about “Jaden McDaniels” on Miami OH😭
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@YouAreWorthNada @ChalkboardHQ Jaden Mcdaniels would take Miami Ohio to a title
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