@valuedontlie Wow. Watch VSNT double if they don’t buy it, and halve if they do
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SI2020
205 posts
$STRZ
Stock ripping lately... CEO incentive comp is old news (Nov 2025)
Hmm...
VSNT likely acquirer here... they want non-linear revenue streams and STRZ gets 70% of revenue from digital
sell-side penciling ~3% EBITDA growth '26-28 for STRZ vs. 12% decline at VSNT
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@FocusedCompound Italians love dilution almost as much as pasta, maybe not through stock based comp but through one-off restructurings every 3 years
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Italy is littered with businesses that have consistently grown revenue, earnings, and free cash flow, all without dilution, for under 10x earnings. The big question is, though, will investors ever actually care??
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@ohcapideas On top of that a 14x IFRS EBITDA multiple usually translates to much more than a 14x GAAP EBITDA multiple since they capitalize so much over there
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Maybe someone can correct me if I'm overlooking something, but I believe implied valuations for both companies in the deal is ~14x EBITDA? Not understanding how Unilever's food business should have that valuation. Certainly shouldn't be valued the same as $MKC legacy business. I know it gives a global platform and a much bigger company to manage, but I don't see how Hellman's and Knorr are worth that much.
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It seems to me that the $MKC $UL deal was very good for $MKC management, but I'm not sure whether it is for their shareholders.
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@thewritser Not sure about that table. Looks like $7/share in YPF TBV and $3/share in non-YPF TBV
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Imagine a bank with:
- Record $5.40 EPS
- 17.8% capital ratio
- Zero foreclosures
- A free insurance business worth $14-18/share
- A conversion option that implies $126/share
- Peers at 1.40x book value
Trading at 1x book. No analyst coverage. Ever.
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@dirtcheapbanks Not sure how relevant this is for you, but the Norwegian regional banks cluster presents interesting opportunities at times. Although I would say currently many are trading at rich valuations.
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Not sure how many of you are aware but we built a forum on dirtcheapbanks.com/forum where the community of bank investors can discuss banks. Someone just posted this interesting find. $CLBK is doing a second step conversion and immediately putting the cash to work to buy $NFBK.
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Website traffic for Cargurus, mentioned by Jonathan Tepper in his interview with Stephen Clapham. Forward P/E of 11x
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@dirtcheapbanks Don’t get how that’s stupid. Yes a little less tax efficient, but you are getting 1x BV on the capital that is distributed while the thing trades at 0.3x. Considering liquidity constraints, they should probably do both, dividends and buybacks
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Watching management teams pay a stupid 1.5% dividend when they are trading at 0.30x tangible book value.
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@valuedontlie Not sure you would want a conversion given the dilution to the dividend
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Most capital goes to the dividend (8%+ yield), but they kickstarted buybacks for first time in 2yrs recently
Even with rate cuts, earnings should grow be growing for a while here
Not as overcapitalized as it was 10yrs ago, but maybe they'll do the 2nd step conversion someday?
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$TFSL
9/30 filed FY25 10-K
Net income +14% YoY as floating rate loans reprice... ~half of loan portfolio is adjustable (ARMs + HELOCs)
Super sleepy partial thrift conversion (MHC owned) trading at 8x earnings and 0.4x book value
Unemployed Value Degen@SFarringtonBKC
Home equity loans look like they are inflecting higher, they are priced on the overnight rate, not the 10-year treasury. Anyone have any small cap value stocks that are positioned to benefit? My only idea is $RKT and I’m looking for better.
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It’s funny when I see people say this is not a bubble forming, and use Pets.com as an example from 99/00 of how bad it was. Well at its peak it was worth ~400mm, how many companies worth 10B’s have zero revenues now? It’s many times worse I think
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@thepupil11 I like how open minded you are. But this might be like buying $UDFI in 2014
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@SmallcapInv1 @finphysnerd Up 150% in one year counts as a response in my book
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@finphysnerd Yes, no real response from the market, although the IPO is planned for next month.
Where did you see the $600M valuation? I only saw a few speculations about a 350M GBP valuation. Maybe the difference is the money raised, i.e. post-money vs pre-money valuation?
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One of my largest holdings Thakral $AWI.si is having another portfolio company IPO in 'Beauty Tech Group'. Thakral own a 9% stake in the Co previously held at $17m on the books. The Co is IPOing at $600m valuation, though there don't seem to be any details yet about how much new
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@benbstwits I don’t get it. Was it mistake he continued to make (selling too early)? Or is he saying that he was wrong and that holding on can actually be a mistake?
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@valuedontlie Balance sheets looks bad as well. What are those $378m of payables? Looks like additional debt
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Despite the red flags, I’m adding to $STRZ
Comes down to whether they can grow OTT subs / revenue over next few years.
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