Adam Ritzer

@HayekAndKeynes Shouldn’t cyclicals trade at the lowest p/e at the top of the cycle and highest or lose money at the trough?

Despite all this they got cheaper Forward P/E of SOX declined to 22.5 from 24.4 at year-start (aggressive earnings revisions supporting valuations)

Semis are on fire 🔥 Broadcom: +44% over last 16 trading days Intel: up 4x over the last year SOX 17-day winning streak (record), +38.7% month-to-date (2nd largest monthly gain in history behind Feb 2000) Sandisk: +71% since March 30, +300% YTD

$RPID down off $TMO results, after a huge day yesterday. Good thing people don’t bother to read transcripts , bc they mentioned bio production, CDMO’s, digitization, automation , re-shoring cap ex, and AI capabilities as areas of strength! 🤔isn’t that exactly what $RPID does?

@pernasresearch Pensions are! They claim they are hedged at each pod and have 100’s of different pods and fire the underperformers , beats me

@RitzerAdam can these "bond like returns" be relied on when they are needed most? i wouldnt count on it

It’s striking that despite the explosion of tools available to retail investors, and the consistently underwhelming returns from hedge funds, there remains this durable belief that professionals operate with some insurmountable edge….The reality is the bar is actually set so low amongst these “pros” that when I explain this I have to make it seem they are better than they actually are just sound credible. I guess what sustains the myth is the sheer scale of capital involved. People see billions and infer brilliance. I think my new favorite analogy to try and dispel this is the modern entertainment industry. There is enormous capital, endless access to “top talent,” and yet good films are rare. The presence of money and resources does not guarantee quality. Not even close. Investing is no different.

@stoked_on_waves So even at a nice discount to TBV on the bank , plus the cash , once it’s approved should be 13+? That would be a nice move 😬

@RitzerAdam No news just a giant move from no 10-k day

So mkt thinks $GDOT is gonna close now?

@stoked_on_waves Giant move? Barely moves? The proxy is out , you can read that. Just need bank approval now

@JohnL_im You see the new MM presentation showing Rapid machines ?

Write up on $RPID, I like it just not enough to buy yet, quite a simple businss is execution now.

I’m sure paying over 50x for 2026 “Gain-on-Sale” profits will workout just fine, with $CVNA’s prime paper deteriorating.

@Bkclaims @junkbondinvest I don’t , but find it interesting that they are paying 15x for building related play at lows in housing cycle, you can buy related companies for single digit multiples ??

@RitzerAdam @junkbondinvest so you have a bank on rev growth in the space?

QXO buying TopBuild for $17B (55% stock) at 14.9x EBITDA (pre-synergies) Public consolidators paying premium multiples while PE-owned peers trade distressed Winners consolidate. Losers restructure.

@Bkclaims @junkbondinvest Synergies are 300mm by 29/30, not much

@junkbondinvest what are they projecting post-synergies?

@HedgeyeCannabis @AlderLaneEggs I hope the big guy is sampling his new coverage as much as his current names

What a time to be relaunching coverage of Cannabis! Phase 1 on 4/20 will hit on the path forward with S3 pending, the roll-up strategy companies are executing to take advantage of that lead up, and profile some of the better operators in the space. $CXXIF, $VREOF, $GLASF, $GTBIF

@JohnL_im Where can I find this ?

@eriksen_tim Yes from last week. You can look it up

@eriksen_tim $PHIG. What scammers. Offer to buy 2mm shares at 25 bucks. 20% discount, is this the new strategy? Fuck over shareholders to benefit themselves ? 2x EBITDA. Good luck

Cedar Creek Partners 2025 year end letter released. Fund returned 29.6% net of fees and expenses in 2025. $SODI $ENDI $PHIG $EXCE $FIEB $SKLB $FLFG $PROM $PDRX eriksencapitalmgmt.com/investor-lette…

@colarion What’s the latest on GDOT

If you have ever been to Pascagoula it is a gritty place where people either work at the Chevron refinery or the Ingalls naval shipbuilding yard. Looks like a lot of alcohol and food stamps being exchanged but America really needs places like this.

One day Stilwell will either retire or win the $PFBX proxy contest / lawsuit. And Merchants and Marine $MNMB will be ready to combine its 6% ROE with People’s 6% and create a bigger coastal 6% ROE bank.

@ParrotCapital How about a housing plan

Pulte the nepo boy was behind Trump's effort to make himself out to be Jesus Christ. Are there any literal adults in the room?

@OleTimeHardball Interesting, everyone had guys hitting .300, now few do

1980 MLB Batting Avg leaders (by team)

@iancassel What is the your minimum upside over what time period to keep doing more and more work?

A bias I've never been able to break is finding the energy/enthusiasm to do work on companies multiple people are already talking about publicly. It's probably hurt me over the years. But I do think a big part of this game is finding the opportunities that are meant for you - where you naturally have that curiosity and energy to dig in and do the work few others have done. You either like being early and accept the risk of being too early/or wrong, or you wait for some proof and give up the first 100-200%+ discovery wave and buy into it with a thesis the revenue/earnings "beats" will continue for longer than the current valuation suggests. I've always been more comfortable with the former for some reason. The former has the risk of boredom/small loss and "wait another quarter" syndrome causing you to hold on too long . The latter normally has more downside since you already bought into the momentum, but at least you know the catalyst is real, it's just a matter of how long it will continue.

@valuedontlie Maybe people will keep eating 🙄

This is an old chart, but it's a good starting point for all divvy cut candidates

When do the CPG dividend cuts starting coming in?

@RevShark Good point!

$GS has three times the weight of $AAPL in the DJIA which makes no sense based on market cap