Thomas REID

🚨🇺🇸 THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE FACT IN CRIME DATA: VIOLENT CRIME IS NOT RANDOM Violent crime in U.S. cities is not evenly spread. Not culturally. Not geographically. Not mathematically. It’s concentrated - absurdly concentrated - in fractions of fractions of the population. This isn’t ideology. It’s decades of DOJ, PD, and academic data all pointing at the same tiny cluster: • ~0.5% of residents linked to 50–70% of shootings • Most homicide suspects have 8–12+ prior arrests • Victims usually know their attackers • Violence clusters block-to-block, not citywide It blows apart the comforting narrative that crime is this vague atmospheric force that “just happens.” It strips out the comforting “society failed them” story and forces a harsher question: If 1% is driving the carnage, why is the entire system designed around treating it like a 100% problem? Why? Because it’s easier to redesign a city than to confront the handful of people actually pulling triggers. It’s easier to blame “society” in general than acknowledge that a tiny network of repeat offenders is blowing holes in entire neighborhoods. Crime is driven by a hyper-small group of chronic, high-risk individuals interacting with each other in micro-geographies the rest of the city rarely sees. At some point, every major city will be forced to admit the truth: You don’t need to fix everyone. You need to fix (or isolate) the 1% doing the damage. Source: DOJ, NIJ, Harvard, UCSB, Rutgers Media: The New Yorker

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