Ted 🇨🇦🇺🇦

We are witnessing, literally watching live, Putin commit genocide on an industrial scale in Ukraine while the most powerful military alliance in history stands aside. It's impossible not to be emotional, but let us also be rational and focus our rage on the facts. 1/13

When Trump announced a delay to the bombing on Monday morning, crude oil futures immediately fell 10%. Compare this to the reaction to yesterday afternoon, when he extended the delay another 10 days (red box). It was short-lived, and now, about 12 hours later, prices are meaningfully higher. I believe the market signal is that the Strait must be opened, and the military must do it. The longer we delay starting this process, the higher crude oil prices will go. All Trump did yesterday was add 10 more days to the ongoing supply shock. Any further statements by Trump about a deal are white noise to the markets. Only if the IRANIANS say the talks are going well will it impact markets. Why isn't the crude oil market substantially higher ($150+), like many are asking? I would argue that the market believes the military can open the Strait. But it will be "messy." In other words, there are no good choices, only ones that are less bad.

Over the past 25 years, Germany has pursued an energy transition by phasing out nuclear power and expanding solar and wind—at a cost of around €500 billion in subsidies. The result: installed capacity has more than doubled, yet electricity generation has declined. The reason is structural. Reliable, dispatchable power was replaced by weather-dependent sources. The consequences are severe: rising energy costs, falling competitiveness, and growing pressure on energy-intensive industries. The key question remains: How do you run an industrial economy on a system that produces less when it matters most?

Oil prices will continue to rise if the current Strait of Hormuz blockage continues. However, there are significant commercial and strategic reserves that can be worked through to avoid broad physical shortages for some time. Bullish for oil - but not necessary to panic!

$GOLD is already rolling over after the bounce, and it still has NOT hit my first real target zone around 3900. On a closed basis, that is only a very modest Fibonacci (0.382) retrace for a move that went this parabolic... If this unwind continues, then 3450 and even the 3000 area are not outrageous at all. So when people call the lows here, my question is simple: based on what, exactly?

Singapore didn't accidentally become the world's busiest container port by volume—they systematically dismantled government interference in their maritime sector starting in the 1960s while every other major port clung to state control and union strangleholds. The Port of Singapore Authority privatized operations, eliminated restrictive labor practices, and told dock workers they could compete or starve. No guaranteed jobs, no featherbedding, no bureaucratic approval processes for new berths. Pure market competition. And what happened? Singapore's container throughput exploded from 1.5 million TEUs in 1981 to over 37 million today, while heavily regulated ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach struggle with chronic delays and infrastructure bottlenecks. You want to see Austrian economics in action? Watch how Singapore's port operators respond to market signals in real time. When global supply chains shifted toward larger vessels in the 2000s, private terminal operators immediately invested $4 billion in deeper berths and automated cranes—no congressional hearings, no environmental impact studies lasting five years. They built what customers demanded because their profits depended on it. Meanwhile, European ports still battle dock worker unions demanding 30-hour work weeks, and American ports require congressional approval for basic infrastructure upgrades. The Port Authority of New York spent $1.3 billion and eight years just to raise the Bayonne Bridge by 64 feet. Singapore builds entire new terminals in that timeframe. But here's what really drives statists crazy: Singapore's success came from treating port services like any other business—subject to profit, loss, and creative destruction. No industrial policy, no five-year plans, just entrepreneurs risking their own capital to move boxes faster than the competition.

We have been surpassed: AI written output exceeded human written output in 2025

The limited flow of traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz is now sailing exclusively through an IRGC-controlled corridor requiring specific clearance codes and an Iranian escort service

The interception of a Russian Shahed/Geran-type long-range OWA-UAV with a firearm by a Ukrainian serviceman flying on board a Yak-52 piston-engine trainer aircraft.

The difference between the two is nearly $42,000,000,000,000. 💰️