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Toby MG
9.9K posts
Toby MG
@TobyMGData
Politics obsessed Wisconsinite, digging into the data. A progressive, punster patriot defeating bad guys in 17 of the last 21 statewide elections. he/him
شامل ہوئے Nisan 2022
1K فالونگ3.3K فالوورز
@MULawPoll Further proof that MAGA has zero principles beyond a devotion to whatever Trump is doing that day
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88% of Republicans who have a favorable view of MAGA support Iran attacks. 28% of Republicans who have an unfavorable view of MAGA support the attacks. #mulawpoll
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A poll with that many undecideds two weeks out isn’t particularly useful, since it’s clearly not modeled for a likely electorate, but all the warning signs are flashing for Lazar-
Low enthusiasm, losing independents, voters don’t like her and it’s getting worse.
MULawPoll@MULawPoll
A final measure of engagement is those saying the outcome of the Supreme Court election is very important to them. Among Democrats, 65% say it is very important, while 46% of Republicans and 24% of independents say the same. #mulawpoll
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@politica1_news Yes and almost 24% of all votes coming from there so far
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@TobyMGData Ah - Dane still putting up an insane >20% return rate
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While we wait for the absentee numbers to post, the reasons so interested in today in particular:
15 Days Out:
2023: 8,483 returns (2.81%)
2025: 10,149 returns (3.08%)
2026: 14,544 returns (5.83%)
14 Days Out:
2023: 31,273 returns (10.20%)
2025: 35,679 returns (10.39%)
2026: ???
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Also keep in mind that, for whatever reason, the City of Milwaukee ALWAYS lags in reporting returns in the first stretch- there are currently only 24 returns reported from The City of Milwaukee and the County is in 4th place with only 1,960- compared to 7,431 out of Dane already
Toby MG@TobyMGData
And there it is! About 16.7k ballots reported returned yesterday, bringing this morning’s total to 31,207 returns (12.22%) So today’s can equalizer after a faster start to returns- just hair behind 2023 in raw returns but a higher rate because of fewer requests
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@politica1_news I imagine a huge part of it is that the spending and therefore attention is a fraction of what it was those years. There aren’t fifteen commercials every hour on every channel and streaming platform about the race.
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@TobyMGData Not as big of a jump, but still solid.
I don't know why the requests themselves have dropped quite significantly though.
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And there it is!
About 16.7k ballots reported returned yesterday, bringing this morning’s total to
31,207 returns (12.22%)
So today’s can equalizer after a faster start to returns- just hair behind 2023 in raw returns but a higher rate because of fewer requests
Toby MG@TobyMGData
While we wait for the absentee numbers to post, the reasons so interested in today in particular: 15 Days Out: 2023: 8,483 returns (2.81%) 2025: 10,149 returns (3.08%) 2026: 14,544 returns (5.83%) 14 Days Out: 2023: 31,273 returns (10.20%) 2025: 35,679 returns (10.39%) 2026: ???
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@ItsChickGinger @NorthChria @kid_riles The founders said our country is not in any sense founded on the Christian religion
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@TobyMGData @NorthChria @kid_riles Who are the founders? What did they believe? What did they put into our founding documents? Why do we have our rights?
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Anyone who wants to insert their personal sky-daddy into politics is unqualified for office.
Vote Chris Taylor for a seat on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court.
Judge Maria Lazar@JudgeMariaLazar
Religious freedom isn’t a privilege granted by the government — it’s a right guaranteed by God and protected by our Constitution. I will defend that right in every case that comes before me. No exceptions. No apologies.
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@TobyMGData @NorthChria @kid_riles "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."
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@NorthChria @kid_riles The United States is not in any sense founded on the Christian religion
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@kid_riles The founders quite literally built this nation upon their "sky daddy" principles. States even had attestation of faith in their doctrines. So the freedom you have to say that comes inherently from their belief in the resurrected Christ, redeeming humanity.
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@DylanLeigh03 @yvonnewingett @russellberman This. It’s not meant to pass. It’s meant to continue to manipulate people
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@yvonnewingett @russellberman Because then in November when MAGA loses lots of seats, Trump can lie and whine that it would not happened if SAVE America Act had passed and his cult will believe him. Gives him ammunition for 2028.
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Some Republican secretaries of state view the SAVE America Act as an unserious attempt to create policy, election experts who have spoken with them told @russellberman and me. theatlantic.com/politics/2026/…
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@LynnFreedom68 @RickEsenberg @StephenScaffid1 Unfortunately, he is. And America is weaker, poorer, and suffering as a result. Elect a traitor and the country goes down the tubes
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@TobyMGData @RickEsenberg @StephenScaffid1 But yet he's your president again, even though your feelings aren't facts!
GIF
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One of the odd thing about the folks trying to excuse Trump's comments is that they have completely fabricated what Mueller did. You can criticize how he handled the investigation (which he did not start) but, in the end, he did not find wrongdoing by Trump. Somehow this has transmogrified into "a coup." I guess we're all snowflakes now.
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@LynnFreedom68 @RickEsenberg @StephenScaffid1 He was not charged with obstruction because Mueller believed it was not possible to indict a sitting president.
The investigation proved Russian interference and Trump campaign communication with Russia but not a criminal conspiracy.
Plenty of wrongdoing, no exoneration
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@LynnFreedom68 @RickEsenberg @StephenScaffid1 Obstruction of justice and consistent communication with Russia while they were interfering in the ejection on his behalf. The Mueller report laid out a clear case for impeachment and removal, and absolutely did not exonerate Trump.
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@SunBeltPolitics "There was no fraud in the 2020 election." - @repvos
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Wisconsin discourse is always fun on this site
Before 2022, we all talked about how Wisconsin was certain to become an R-leaning state. Then 2022 happened.
2023 happened, and Wisconsin was supposedly a D-leaning state. Then Trump won it.
Wisconsin is stuck in tilts.
Pennsylvania/Philadelphia Supremacist🇺🇸🇺🇦🇬🇱@PA_Supremacist
My Mom asked me yesterday “Is Wisconsin becoming a Lean D/Likely D state like Minnesota?” I’m skeptical and feel that’s too optimistic, but it was the most liberal swing state in 2024, these fundraising numbers are insane, and it feels like the Wisconsin GOP is just giving up
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@CraigCrisostom1 @PokiJaciii If Lazar and one other conservative loses, the Republicans will not be able to gerrymander the state in 2031 even if they have a trifecta
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@PokiJaciii Not just that. The WIGOP will be effectively handicapped at a legislative level all the way into the next decade. x.com/TobyMGData/sta…
Toby MG@TobyMGData
@CraigCrisostom1 @StatisticUrban If we win this year and next year, the majority is a lock through 2033- and that means they’d have to flip 2028, hold 2029, flip 2030 AND flip 2033 to get it back- a four win streak. It is wild that they seem to be abandoning Lazar and Ziegler stabbed her in the back
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So every Wisconsin Supreme Court race is just Safe D now?💀
Devin Remiker@devinremikerwi
Wisconsin State Party Feb Fundraising Total Receipts 🔵 WisDems: $1,515,042 🔴 WisGOP: $167,242 Total w/o Non-Federal Transfers 🔵 WisDems: $525,846 🔴 WisGOP: $83,316 Last fed filing ahead of the 4/7 WI Supreme Court election. Next state filing due on 3/30.
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@CraigCrisostom1 @StatisticUrban The big factor in 2028 is the presidential primary, though. That’s what makes that one unpredictable. 2016 was the last time it was seriously contested on both sides and the SCOWIS numbers tracked pretty well with the primary partisan breakdown
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@TobyMGData @StatisticUrban It's possible that the four-year win streak can happen. BUT that's dependent on the Democrats collapsing in popularity with high-propensity voters before the 2028 election, which isn't likely right now given the direction of Trump 2.0. So as of now, 2028 looks like a Dem hold. 1/
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It hasn't received much attention, but WI has a Supreme Court election on April 7th.
The only poll has the Democrat leading by 7pts. Markets have Dem odds at 95%. A D win here would lock in a 5D-2R WI court until at least 2030.
The WI GOP appears to have given up?
Devin Remiker@devinremikerwi
Wisconsin State Party Feb Fundraising Total Receipts 🔵 WisDems: $1,515,042 🔴 WisGOP: $167,242 Total w/o Non-Federal Transfers 🔵 WisDems: $525,846 🔴 WisGOP: $83,316 Last fed filing ahead of the 4/7 WI Supreme Court election. Next state filing due on 3/30.
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@CraigCrisostom1 @StatisticUrban Win 2? 2033. Win 3? 2035 and we’re already talking about Susan Crawford’s seat. They’ve drawn themselves into quite a corner here
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@CraigCrisostom1 @StatisticUrban Yes. When people say “a majority through at least xxxx” it kind of implies a flip is likely at that point but it actually requires a complete reversal of the dynamics of these elections spanning several years to happen. Of the races before 2033, if progressives win 1, 2030
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