Blanca

There's an East Bay rationalist joke to be made here but I'll leave the details as an exercise to the reader x.com/Phil_Lewis_/st…

Pretty wild. The first image represents objects in Earth’s orbit at the end of the 1950s. The second is Earth’s orbit now. theguardian.com/science/ng-int…

@mcuban @Babar1B What about building a lean, AI-native one from scratch? 👋🏼

@Babar1B I've looked at buying or investing. They didn't know in all but one

You know the answer to all of this. Of course they know the numbers. I have sat in countless meetings where we discuss all of this and come up with ways in which to continue to increase profits. They are acting dumb because they know the answers are not popular and would expose the scam further.

@agingroy @NatureMedicine @Kasparov63 The goal used to be to get computers to talk like humans and now it’s to get humans to speak English in a way that the computer “understands”. Human + AI is a spiky knowledge surface that needs to be regularized correctly.

New @NatureMedicine trial: 1,298 people got an AI to help with medical diagnosis. They did worse than the AI alone. AI solo: 94.9% accuracy. Human + AI: below 34.5%. Chess had this exact arc. For 20 years, human + computer beat computer alone. @Kasparov63 called them "centaurs." Then engines got too strong and humans just added noise. Radiology, clinical decision support, now general diagnosis. Same pattern every time. The centaur era in medicine might be shorter than anyone expects.

@jefielding Teams, “taste”, tenacity

Right now, VCs care about one thing only…defensibility / moats so don’t bother pitching anything else. Like throw away the entire deck and just have one slide on that.

first torch. now coefficient. the labs aren't buying short-term revenue as much as - proprietary clinical dataset - user value in ways chat alone can't already do - regulatory wedge - sandbox for faster builds in a $5T/yr market wild time to be a healthcare AI company.

@adamlevitan I believe the term of art is courtsiding

Buddy, these guys are front-running live betting markets. (Sorry I mean “market making) (Sorry I mean “providing liquidity”)

The idea for Demis's work on memory and imagination (a Science top 10 breakthrough of the year) he had on his honeymoon in Italy. This plus David Silver’s thinking of AlphaZero on his honeymoon in Sri Lanka makes me think we should also go on more honeymoons. 8/

@JTLonsdale @mcuban Building out hospital-level infra is a non-starter for surgery centers and rural sites, but care gaps won't be filled by hospitals. 'Question, delete, simplify, accelerate, automate' is necessary for healthcare abundance that actually serves patients.

@mcuban Yeah

Why aren’t any of these at risk hospitals publishing their full accounting so everyone can see where they spend their money ? All but one group of hospitals that I have looked at potentially investing in, spend so much on consultants and fees that it’s no wonder they are at risk Plus, I have NEVER seen an industry that is worse than hospitals when it comes to buying medications and items like implants, screws, other devices. They overpay for everything. And then when you show them how to save money, their “supply chain” employees resist any change. They are so set in their ways, it’s a shock more don’t go out of business. Prove me wrong.

@naval llms and agents knowledge surface is still spiky, so uncovering failure modes is fun too. To your point, much easier to suss out gaps when you know what you want to build.

Vibe coding is more addictive than any video game ever made (if you know what you want to build).

@mcuban Building out hospital-level infra in ASCs is a non-starter for exactly the reasons you cite, but care gaps won't be filled by hospitals. 'Question, delete, simplify, accelerate, automate' is necessary for a healthcare abundance paradigm that actually serves patients.

Space — the final frontier. Our new National Space Agency begins operations today. The global space industry is growing fast. While Singapore may not have launch sites, we have strengths in specialised, high-value areas — from satellites to advanced manufacturing.

@beffjezos AI for healthcare can also totally enrich docs. Capturing more cases, providing more care/increasing demand, improving outcomes. Upside can be shared in a healthcare abundance paradigm.

Narrative violation. AI for healthcare will make doctors more efficient, lower costs, and increase demand for health services

@rtnarch Also on the table is to not replace anyone, but decouple care delivery from physician time and geography, give existing docs 10x reach

Replacing BOTH hospital administrators and radiologists with AI is probably coming.

@martinvars Physicians don’t scale, but procedures do—and procedures can be automated. Fed gov tailwinds are pointing in this direction. Physician scarcity is not going away. Physician geographic density won’t change soon. Decouple care delivery from geography and doc scarcity.

@martinvars “Human in the loop” = doctor on the hook. Access crisis is not going away via training or paying $$$ for specialists to move rural. Have to share tech upside with physicians and 10x reach with automation and autonomy.

The US healthcare system is currently spending hundreds of billions annually on administrative bloat, yet millions of Americans still live in care deserts. We have a severe physician shortage that no amount of medical school admissions can fix in the next decade. Yet, almost all the capital in healthcare AI is flowing into 'copilots'—tools that just add another layer of software for an already exhausted, burned-out doctor to manage. At Certuma, we realized this is the wrong approach. You don't solve a catastrophic labor shortage by giving the missing labor a better spellchecker. You solve it with fully autonomous clinical AI. We are building autonomous doctors designed specifically for environments where the alternative is no care at all. To do this, we are putting our AI through the exact same rigorous regulatory scrutiny as a new drug or medical intervention. No shortcuts. No 'human in the loop' safety nets to hide behind. If we want to actually increase the supply of healthcare and drive down costs, we have to stop treating AI as an administrative assistant and start treating it as a highly regulated, highly scalable medical intervention.

@zakkohane A social science framing of the nasty moat is illegible v legible systems (Seeing Like a State). Healthcare at the population level remains largely illegible.

Let's hope that healthcare does not fit perfectly into the nasty moat described in this intriguing Uber-for-VC ;-) agentic Y-combinator-fast-follower/cloner effort.

Applied Intuition CEO @qasar says the market for physical AI is "way, way bigger" than the market for white-collar AI: "I used to be at Y Combinator. I was the COO, ran the firm, and funded lots of interesting companies. And one of the analogies I used to use to help founders understand market potential and size is: I grew up in Detroit. You're sitting in the Detroit metro airport at a gate, and you look around. How many of those people are using Claude Code? Frankly speaking, not many." "But how many of those people drive? How many people work at construction sites? How many of those people ride in buses? How many of those people serve in our armed forces? The point is: a much, much larger group." "The market for physical AI is way, way bigger. Purely because the surface area is much bigger."

@ColtonOrtolf I agree paying specialists more has not worked to bring them to rural counties. There are tailwinds from gov, tech, and med to fill Bucket 3. Physical AI is mature enough to make a dent there.

Supply chain attacks like the currently breaking axios, litellm and xz are only going to be more commonplace in the vibecoding world. The entire premise of vibecoding is “I don’t need to understand the code” happens to also be the entire premise of a supply chain attack.