Caoloc

@shanaka86 I don't think Trump planned it. Maybe you could sell the idea to him, so that you can get something

In January 2026, the United States overthrew Nicolás Maduro and seized operational control of Venezuela’s oil exports. In February 2026, the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran that closed the Strait of Hormuz. These are not separate events. They are the same strategy executed in sequence. Before the first bomb fell on Tehran, the US had already redirected 900,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude away from China and toward American, European, and Indian refiners. Chevron, Vitol, and Trafigura now market PDVSA oil under General License 52, with all proceeds flowing to a US Treasury account. China’s share of Venezuelan exports collapsed from over 600,000 barrels per day to 48,000 in February, a 67 percent drop in weeks. The US did not announce this as war preparation. It announced it as democracy promotion. But the barrel does not care what you call it. Now connect the second move. China buys 80 to 91 percent of Iran’s oil exports, approximately 1.38 million barrels per day transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is now closed. Iran’s export infrastructure is under sustained bombardment. Kharg Island, which handles 90 percent of Iranian crude, is on the Pentagon’s contingency list. In two months, the United States has cut China off from its two largest non-traditional crude suppliers simultaneously: Venezuela by regime change, Iran by war. Combined, China has lost access to roughly two million barrels per day of supply it was receiving 60 days ago. This is why Dar is in Beijing today. China is not mediating the Iran war out of altruism or diplomatic ambition. China is mediating because it is running out of affordable oil. The country that controls 90 percent of the world’s rare earth processing, that supplies BeiDou navigation to Iranian missiles and neodymium magnets to American interceptors, that holds the leverage to end or extend this war, is sitting at the negotiating table because the United States methodically cut its energy supply lines before the first missile was fired. The grand bargain is not a theory. It is a pressure system. The US needs Chinese rare earths to rebuild 2,400 depleted Patriot interceptors. China needs Hormuz open and Venezuelan barrels restored. The US controls the Venezuelan spigot. China controls the rare earth pipeline. Each side holds a chokepoint the other cannot survive without. The deal writes itself: rare earth guarantees for oil access, semiconductor export relief for Hormuz security, Taiwan status-quo assurance for NPT compliance. Every variable has a price. Every price has a counterparty. And both counterparties are now desperate enough to pay. Venezuela was the opening move. Iran is the middle game. Beijing is the endgame. The molecule that connects all three is crude oil, and the country that controls where it flows controls the terms of the peace. The US did not stumble into this war. It secured alternative supply, redirected barrels away from its principal competitor, launched the campaign that closed the competitor’s primary import route, and is now negotiating from a position where the competitor must choose between its rare earth leverage and its energy security. That is not improvisation. That is the most sophisticated energy weapon deployed since the 1973 Arab oil embargo, except this time, America is not the victim. It is the architect. The arithmetic leads to Beijing. It always did. The only question was whether Beijing would arrive at the table voluntarily or be starved into it. The answer, as of March 31, is the latter. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@NewsBFM There's something wrong with the businesses that the country gets into. Low end, low margin - of course cannot afford to pay good wages

Malaysia needs reforms beyond periodic minimum wage hikes, as weak income growth threatens consumer spending, warns Bank Negara. While past increases have boosted earnings for lower-income workers, they have also caused wage compression, distorting the broader labour market. 🧵1

@ryangrim Does Iran really have a legitimate claim on the Straits to levy a toll? Did they build it, enhanced or did some value add changes? No, it's just strong arm bullying no different from the street thug asking for protection money

If this ends with European and Asian and African countries paying Iran to get oil through the strait, that is actually a fairly stable arrangement because all parties will have an incentive to keep it stable (except of course Israel and the U.S., the real source of global instability)

@academic_la It's preparation, intelligence and tactics. All these were lacking or overridden by the pseudo military experts aka politicians

The US military has not fought a real enemy in decades. Now that it has been faced with one, it is doing badly. That is no coincidence. The military was built to make money for arms companies, not to win wars. Read my latest for free.

@TheEconomist Trump needed to study The Art of War with better teachers.

Realising that Donald Trump is scared of economic disruption, and that cheap drone attacks and even cheaper threats can cause a lot of it, Iran has kept these up economist.com/united-states/…

@RyanRozbiani Iran doesn't own the straits. Doing this toll is akin to thuggery like getting protection money

JUST IN 🇮🇷🇺🇸: The toll system in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran refers to, could generate an annual income of around $100 Billion dollars via NYT Trump will allow this as it will be the “reparations" part of the peace deal that Iran has asked for. Like it or not, all wars end with a deal. The U.S. might have the military upper hand, but Iran put a chokehold on the global energy economy and the world can not afford for this war to keep going.

@Arrogance_0024 You know how Trump treats friends/allies. No one will go the extra mile for him, it's simply not worth it or even appreciated

Why did NATO allies follow Bush in Iraq but refuse to follow Trump in Iran? What exactly has changed? What is the "problem" now? Or should I rather say: WHO is the problem??

@academic_la Trust Trump with his judgement and this is what you get

The US is on the verge of stopping the war with Iran without any achievements. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Trump is willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This is because the political bleeding and the price of oil are too much for Trump to continue to withstand. What this means: 1) Trump and his aides concluded that forcing the strait open would take longer than his 4–6 week timeline, so the plan is to wind down hostilities after degrading Iran's navy and missile capabilities. 2) The plan is then to push diplomatically for free passage and if that fails, lean on European and Gulf allies to lead the reopening effort. 3) Iran would then likely demand that Israel stop bombing before they agree to open. That shouldn't be a massive problem, since Israel is running out of targets there anyway. 4) Iran received a lot of money from oil and a lot of new weapons and technology. They will use that to rebuild their regional power. 5) It appears very likely that Iran is going to pursue a nuclear weapons seriously for the first time, instead of pursuing the goal of being a threshold state. 6) The United States will lose a lot of its influence in the Gulf and the Middle East due to this disaster. That will pave the path to Chinese domination in the region. The US appears ready to conceded a historic defeat in the Gulf. American power will never be the same.

@NewsBFM Politicians should be the ones actively curbing the rise. Yet they are the main perpetrators. Society has not matured enough to condemn such politicians whenever they step out of line. Is there hope for the country?

The Malaysia Racism Report recorded a record high of 107 racism-related incidents last year, the highest since its inception. Most cases were linked to public discourse and policy, parliamentary debates, and social settings, reflecting the growing influence of political rhetoric. 🧵1

@TheEconomist The world needs to move away from oil consumption sooner than later. Added benefit is the Middle East will become a no interest zone, making Iran irrelevant. That's a better way to win a war

America has no easy way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran may not be able to force Donald Trump to end the war by keeping it shut economist.com/middle-east-an…

@_0xghost_ There are plenty of smart people to choose from. But Trump surrounds himself with the yes men

Here’s the entire set of unfortunate circumstances of how we found ourselves on the verge of another GFC: 1. Trump was misinformed, he thought Iran was another Venezuela, he would blow up the regime & ppl would overthrow the rest of the govt 2. As a result, he never thought through the rest of it 3. He never game theoried the possibility of Iran taking over the Strait of Hormuz 4. Iran is in control now bc they have a stranglehold on huge percentage of global energy shipping & are destabilizing the region & petrodollar 5. TRUMP thought he could TACO himself out of the situation like he did with the tariff talks & other business deals 6. This is not a business deal, Iran is dug in, has been betrayed countless times, sees this as an existential war, their final stand & now that they have the upper hand, they aren’t negotiating anything 7. Only way to resolve this is through force, which will be the 2020s version of Vietnam 8. Iran is fighting a different kind of war, they don’t care how many casualties they have, this is do or die for them. Their mentality is more like kamikazes or those Japanese solders who were still in the jungles 30 years after the war was over. Point being this war isn’t judged by casualties or damage- Iran is willing to take more pain. 9. In summation, this is a global financial crisis, end of American empire kind of war, which America has gotten itself into unnecessarily by a leader who thought it would be over in 3 days, didn’t think it all through and thought he could manage it like a real estate deal.

@PhillipsPOBrien The US may have the most advanced weaponry but it's military tactics are second grade. I don't think it's the lack of talent, its politicians interfering

If the US war on Iran ends up with the Iranian regime still in power and Iran able to charge tolls in the Straits of Hormuz, it will be the quickest and most comprehensive defeat that the US has ever suffered—and alarms bells should start ringing loudly about the future of US power.

@malaymail It's an absolute necessity, not only for Malaysia but the world to reduce if not eliminate the dependency on oil. This time, the war with Iran shows how vulnerable it is. What will be the next?

The Malaysian government is exploring the potential of nuclear power as a strategic response to the global energy crisis sparked by the US-Israel war against Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Amar Fadillah Yusof said the move, which is part of the 13th Malaysia Plan, is a crucial step towards strengthening the nation’s long-term energy security and supporting its clean energy goals. “The need to assess the potential and feasibility of nuclear energy is increasingly relevant in the context of a changing global energy landscape, influenced by geopolitical uncertainty as well as instability in fuel supply and prices,” Fadillah, who is also the minister of energy transition and water transformation, said in a statement today. Several Asean countries are experiencing energy crises due to the US-Iran war and Hormuz Strait closure, which disrupted oil and LNG flows critical to the region

@orrdavid I'm astounded at the amount of grovelling to Trump, defending something completely incorrect just to please the master deal maker

The Hormuz blockade strategy is from 40 years ago. It only made sense back when it actually hurt the USA. Now that we have cheap shale oil, the strategy is obsolete because Iran blockading the rest of the world's oil doesn't actually hurt the USA.

@NST_Online Well, who's the dummy who gave them the idea in the first place?

#NSTworld Rubio, after attending talks of the Group of Seven powers, said he had voiced concern that Iran may impose a permanent tolling system "immediately after" the war ends. bit.ly/4lSLYyG

@DavidJHarrisJr So it's part of the plan? All is moving along nicely?

Reports confirm Iran just struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, which hosts U.S. troops and aircraft. 10-12 of our service members are injured with two in critical condition. Several U.S. Air Force refueling planes (including KC-135 tankers) on the ground were damaged. Who’s ready for President Trump to wipe them off the face of the earth…

@Osint613 The strategy is done by the pseudo military experts i.e. politicians. This cannot be by the real military experts. That's why it's flawed and doomed to fail

German Chancellor Merz on Iran: The Americans and the Israelis are getting more deeply entangled in this conflict every single day. And in my view, they do not have a strategy.

@HanShawnity Because the strategy is flawed. Planned by pseudo military background politicians and not the real military generals

I'm trying to understand something about the Iranian people. Just a few months ago you were slaughtered by the thousands for protesting and demanding your freedom. You begged for help. Help came. The US and Israel have been bombing Iranian regime targets mercilessly for weeks now. Why aren't you rising up? You won't get this opportunity again. It's now or never. I'm not here to judge. I understand the regime consists of savages who wouldn't hesitate to murder thousands more. But they're killing you anyway, and if you really want your freedom like you say you do, now's the time. Your future is up to you. You can't expect other people to do it for you.

@Osint613 Stupid Trump. Not only objectives of attacking not defined at the start and is still not really defined, it has actually benefited Iran with a new revenue stream. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is facing the high possibility of economic collapse

Iran is shifting Hormuz toll payments into yuan via Chinese maritime firms, with legislation underway (today) to lock it in. Already receiving over 80% of oil revenue in yuan through CIPS, Tehran is now expanding that system to shipping fees, further bypassing SWIFT and anchoring the yuan at a key global chokepoint. It means the US can’t sanction it.

@DailyMail And Trump doesn't even think Putin is the enemy

Russia to begin sending drones to Iran in first evidence Moscow will provide military support in war, officials said trib.al/v0QfLAG