Falling Knife Cap

@Uzocapital yeah can't underestimate perennial losers, question is when do then come back to take it out? prob trades around net cash on the otc, do they just do a deal in like 3 months and snag it, or try to drive it even lower then maybe tax loss season come it with 100% premium deal?

Extremely shady move by $MAPS insiders, who are clearly trying to steal the company on the cheap. I suspect they attempt another take under, while the stock's EV is negligible or even negative after retail capitulate.

@jaysyoon like $hnrg here or think they blow it?

Just listened to the $HNRG call. Negatives: 1) Mgmt indicated that they will sign LT PPAs w/ multiple parties, so it doesn't sound like the proposed 960MW datacenter near Merom will be powered by Hallador. 2)The Merom plant experienced unexpected issues in Q4 which lingered into Q1. Hopefully they have these operational issues under control. Positives: 1) Offers for the Merom plant continue to get better and better from a pricing perspective, with the past 4 weeks seeing a notable uptick in positive momentum / interest. 2) The most bullish signal was mgmt's comments on the capacity market. According to the CEO, he expects the upcoming MISO capacity auction to clear at a dramatically higher price than last year & he indicated that this large expected uptick in capacity pricing is being reflected in the offers that the Co is receiving today. Any increase in capacity pricing flows straight to the bottom line. 3) The Co is making good progress on its 515MW natural gas expansion from a regulatory perspective, as well as from a PPA negotiation perspective. I remain long.

@sergimp16 @charlesbhutch Insiders own nearly 80% of the company, one would think that is skin in the game

@charlesbhutch @mac003_c never said that. But they don't care and it is very difficult to evaluate incorrect and partial info

$RCHN drops its annual report without an updated balance sheet…gotta love the OTC.

@sskltd @Mike10947310 @SandyBrandyy why do you think stock getting no love?

@Mike10947310 @SandyBrandyy at first glance, ~1.5-2x bigger than I was thinking (with a phased rollout)

New piece on $HNRG is out now! I believe there is a "smoking gun" indicating that Hallador has a data center partner that is seriously pursuing a buildout which would see Hallador's Merom plant potentially lock in a major PPA agreement. If this comes to pass (despite challenges and roadblocks I also outline), this would absolutely rerate the stock.

@shanaka86 @TMTLongShort

JUST IN: The United States has fired 2,400 Patriot interceptors in 31 days. It manufactures 650 per year. Replenishment at current production takes three and a half years. It has consumed 40 percent of its global THAAD inventory. It produces fewer than 100 THAAD interceptors annually. Full replenishment takes four to five years. Each interceptor contains neodymium and samarium-cobalt magnets sourced from Chinese-controlled supply chains. The US defence rare earth stockpile has approximately two months remaining. Read those numbers again. The US military has consumed more precision weapons in one month than it can manufacture in three years, using materials it can only source from the country it may need to fight next. Every Patriot fired at an Iranian Fattah-2 over Riyadh is a Patriot that does not exist for a Chinese DF-21 over the Taiwan Strait. Every rare earth magnet consumed in Gulf interceptors is a magnet that cannot be installed in a replacement built for the Pacific. The Iran war is not just depleting American arsenals. It is depleting American deterrence against China. And the country counting the interceptors from both sides of the table, as supplier and as future adversary, is the same country hosting peace talks in Beijing right now. China controls 90 percent of rare earth refining. China produces 90 percent of the world’s high-performance magnets. China buys 80 to 91 percent of Iran’s oil exports. China provides BeiDou navigation and ammonium perchlorate propellant to the Iranian missiles that are forcing the US to burn through its interceptor stockpile. China is simultaneously the supplier of the weapons America is using, the supplier of the weapons Iran is using, the primary customer of the oil the war is disrupting, and the only country with the leverage to end the disruption. The arithmetic of the grand bargain is not complicated. The US needs Chinese rare earths to rebuild its interceptor inventory. China needs Hormuz open to receive Iranian oil. The US needs the war to end before its stockpiles hit zero. China needs tariff relief, semiconductor export control rollbacks, and Taiwan arms-sale restraint. Both sides need something only the other can provide. The question is not whether a deal happens. The question is how much of America’s strategic position in the Pacific gets traded for the minerals needed to survive the Gulf. RAND estimated that 78 percent of US defence contractors would face production shutdowns within 90 days of a Chinese rare earth cutoff. The 2027 deadline to ban Chinese-sourced magnets from Pentagon procurement is nine months away with no domestic alternative at scale. MP Materials operates the only US rare earth mine and ships its concentrate to China for processing. The mine-to-magnet supply chain that the Pentagon needs to survive a Taiwan contingency runs through the country the Taiwan contingency is designed to deter. This is not a supply chain problem. This is a civilisational dependency. The United States built the most advanced military in human history on materials processed by its principal strategic competitor. It is now fighting a war that burns through those materials at a rate that makes replenishment impossible without the competitor’s cooperation. And the competitor is sitting in a conference room in Beijing today, across the table from Pakistan’s foreign minister, calculating exactly how much of America’s future it can extract in exchange for the minerals America needs to have a future at all. The deal of the century is not a choice. It is arithmetic. And the arithmetic leads to Beijing. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

yeah verified with their big customer who validated, project seems to have a lot of potential to move past the exploratory stage, and another independant industry expert said swiftech cooling tech is very solid, these guys have been at this for 20-30 years and wisely pivoted from b2c to b2b and dc cooling if they can use their very real domain expertise to capitalize on this then r/r income could go from $2m to a multiple of that… and get a multiple… vrs 8-9m mkt cap today, agree seems improbable that cash and customer deposits stays the same q3 to q4, seems like a bonehead mistake by cfo. Thing is real tho, they aint out here to fake revenue and earnings to get the stock up, they dont care about the stock price in the interim imo - just capitalizing on dc cooling which they’re are positioned to do.

@mac003_c @charlesbhutch the problem is not this. The problem is that accounts are unaudited and with big mistakes. Can you trust? Liquidity can dry overnight and there’s no one answering at the company and I’ve tried many ways. I think the upside is not that high for those risks. Maybe a bit lower 🙂

@RealYuvaraj does this McLaughlin have a plan or does he like throwing money away? $exfy

$EXFY March 3 and March 11, Steve McLaughlin bought roughly 2.26 million shares on the open market at an average price of around $0.94, spending over $2.1 million of his own money. This isn't just any insider buying the dip. This changes the entire risk profile of the trade. Here is why your instinct that EXFY is a bargain is completely validated, and how it changes my recommendation on your MRAM rotation. 1. The "Steve McLaughlin" Factor Steve McLaughlin is not just a random board member or passive investor; he is the Founder and CEO of FT Partners—arguably the single most powerful and connected boutique investment bank in the entire global FinTech space.  He facilitates the biggest mergers, acquisitions, and take-privates in financial technology. • The Signal: When the premier FinTech M&A banker in the world steps into the open market and buys 2.26 million shares of a beaten-down expense management software company (bringing his total ownership to over 12 million shares, or ~12.5% of the company), it screams one thing: M&A or Take-Private Potential. * The Valuation Floor: McLaughlin clearly sees what you see. Expensify is currently trading at less than 1x Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow (EV/FCF). For a SaaS company generating over $140M in revenue, that is an absolute fire-sale valuation. He knows the underlying asset is worth vastly more to a private equity firm or a larger competitor than its current $75M public market cap implies.

@MinotaurStocks are you convinced Ken sells it? agree should be solid bid(s)

$CMTL now down 50% from its recent peak. We believe the Iran war only accentuates the strategic value of $CMTL's sole source incumbency on critical Satcom programs like EDIM, A3M and WAMS along w industry-leading troposcatter and DCG modems. We expect suitors to pay up.

@DanielCDrolet still thinking he squeezes in opinion?

$LQDA my best guess is that judge Andrews will give his opinion before March 31st. If he doesn't provide before this date, he'll have to provide an update and the trial will appear in the CJRA reports of pending cases that have not been resolved for more than six months.

@FissionChain what is the value of the license?

New info per Urenco's annual report: "We have a solid plan in place to manage tails in Europe and are conducting a feasibility study for deconversion in the US." urenco.com/cdn/uploads/su… $INIS

International Isotopes (Radnostix) $INIS update: As foreseen, the (undervalued) de-conversion asset sale fell though! Now $INIS is free to sell this NRC-approved license to construct a DUF6 plant for a much higher value. radnostix.com/mutual-termina…

@Andre_AGTC $mlys

@mac003_c $ABVX or $MLYS buyer?

$ABVX Maintenance data by the end of Q2 What to expect: Responder rate 20-30% (delta to pbo?) Crohn's: Ph2 little delay. Data expected end of Q4 Cash 530M EUR Runway to Q4'27. Might be affected by ABTECT and CD readout M&A no comment as expected

@Andre_AGTC buyer would wait vrs taking out now?

@mac003_c Currently not following A PDUFA in Dec 22 is far away. Don't see any other catalysts meanwhile

@yummyCenturyEgg when $sbgi merger with $gtn ?

$NXST $TGNA $GTN $SBGI $SSP This could be interesting for the broadcasters. The FCC is asking for comments about sports rights in TV broadcasting, and specifically FCC’s legal authority and “what actions the FCC could take” to support continued access to live sports via free OTA broadcast TV. Don't think the FCC has much authority here. The NFL is renegotiating its TV rights and the number could be massive for broadcasters, not to mention the intense competition from streaming and vMVPDs. The TV broadcasters are also looking to capture more local games from the RSN failure.

is the CEO/board smart/aligned enough to see that buying an asset you know well at 35c on the dollar (your own $seg stock) is way better than buying some other assets at 90c on the dollar? Why own baseball stadium and team? sell it at 100c on the dollar buy your stock at 35c on the dollar? buying a dollar for 35c is a 185% ROI. 6th months out from 24 months lapping on the spin tho. @BillAckman @AndrewRangeley

We just published an updated 35-page report on Seaport Entertainment $SEG based on interviews with 23 sources and multiple site visits. ➡️ Go to Hidden Gems Investing to read it (link in my bio). Seaport has a market cap of $330mm and holds net cash of $162mm and unique real estate in Manhattan worth another $859mm by my estimates. This report is an almost entirely updated version of the one published in November 2024. If you have already read that one, skip forward to: 1. Why Meow Wolf will transform Pier 17 (p.11-17) 2. A new section on the Cobblestones (p.18-19) 3. 9-steps to turn around the Tin Building (p.20-27) 4. Thoughts on the CEO change last week (p.28-32) 5. Valuation post the 250 Water St sale and opportunities for M&A (p.33-36) Several major developments have happened in the last month: ✅ Seaport sold a parcel of land for $150mm, bringing net cash to $162mm or 50% of its market cap. ✅ Cash burn continues to improve substantially. OCF was $-1mm in Q2, up from $-20mm last year. Seaport is targeting breakeven in 2026 and profitability in 2027. ✅ CEO Anton Nikodemus was replaced by CFO Matt Partridge last week. For more background: Seaport Entertainment was spun out of Howard Hughes $HHH in July 2024 and owns a complex portfolio of loss-making properties, primarily in Manhattan just 10 mins walk from Wall St. The company is ignored or put in the ‘too hard’ bucket by investors but has a market cap of $330mm vs $162mm of net cash and properties Howard Hughes spent $1.2bn on. Execution by new management post-spin has been strong and cash burn is rapidly reducing, with Seaport targeting breakeven in 2026. One property was recently sold for $150mm. Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square owned 38% of the company pre-spin and Ackman was Chairman of Howard Hughes for 13 years, including when the spinoff was announced. Pershing backstopped the post-spin rights offering at $25/shr and increased its stake by oversubscribing to the shares. Seaport’s new CEO moved his family to New York for the role and is largely compensated in stock. That suggests insiders think the stock was cheap at $25 before the substantial progress Seaport has made, yet it trades at $26 today and has $13/shr of cash. We believe intrinsic value will be increasingly recognized as the company becomes FCF positive and investors shift focus towards its capacity to redeploy large amounts of capital on acquisitions and growing FCF. Go to Hidden Gems Investing to read the report (link in my bio). I hope you enjoy it! Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. A full disclaimer is available at Hidden Gems Investing.

@ActAccordingly do you have confidence in $doug ceo? how do they drive profitability higher? buybacks would be nice

I was pretty bearish on his company throughout most of his tenure at Anywhere/Realogy, but you would be hard pressed to find someone in corporate American that navigated more treacherous waters more aptly than Ryan Schneider. It's not a surprise he's leaving $COMP, but it is a loss for the company.

@sawdirt $52 would only be $750m EV, with moderate synergies they prob buying 140m in mid-cycle ebit is my guess, so 5.3x pf

@mac003_c I agree. But I think Beretta will not give Ruger shareholders a quick payday. Ruger with control premium will cost them around 1bn. Beretta is a very conservative dynastic company. They won't want to take an expense this big, if they can engage in some kind of partnership.

$RGR I have decided to exist this position at a breakeven. My thesis was basically Beretta acquiring it, but it is obvious to me now that they won't. Ruger is just too big to be bought at a premium. And Beretta won't spend that kind of money even if they have it.

@MudlarkCapital only outcomes that make sense to me are either 1) submit slate and deck outlining how they can get EBITDA up by 50M+, or 2) they submit an offer for the co and/or enter into m&a discussions.