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Mocha

@monster_models

@Strategy modeling enthusiast | $MSTR shareholder | Options seller | $STRC advocate | #Bitcoin | ex-HPC software developer | Loyal fan of @milkmochabear

شامل ہوئے Ocak 2020
100 فالونگ356 فالوورز
Mocha
Mocha@monster_models·
@AdamBLiv Adam, you are truly remarkable. How do you develop these takedowns so quickly? You am become death, the destroyer of bears. 🧡🫡
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Adam Livingston
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv·
🔥COFFEEZILLA REFUTED - STRC IS THE GREATEST FIXED INCOME INVESTMENT EVER🔥 Coffeezilla just made an 18 minute CHARACTER ASSASSINATION on Strategy by saying it was comparable to a PONZI SCHEME. He made ZERO arguments in his video, provided ZERO mechanisms by which the structure is fraudulent, and provided ZERO proof that Strategy hasn't disclosed the proper risks. This didn't stop thousands of people from immediately thinking that Strategy is FRAUDELENT. DO BETTER, COFFEEZILLA. THIS IS YOUR RECKONING:
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Mocha@monster_models·
@PunterJeff I have absolutely been feeling it. As you've said, this is going to be the most hated rally.
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Jeff Walton
Jeff Walton@PunterJeff·
Can you feel it?… The Bewilderment?… It’s intensifying. 🟩👆🏼
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Mocha@monster_models·
@AdamBLiv Adam, I sincerely cannot wait to unleash my monster model on you. You're going to have so much fun.
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Adam Livingston
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv·
STRC is breaking through to the normies and it is HILARIOUS. Can you imagine what’s gonna happen when Saylor buys $5 billion of Bitcoin in one day? The BEFUDDLEMENT is going to be HYSTERICAL. WE ARE IN THE FIRST INNING IN THE WAR FOR THE FUTURE OF MONEY. $BTC
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Mocha
Mocha@monster_models·
Jeff, you helped me begin to think differently about risk (and I already felt like I was fairly sophisticated in that regard)! Really appreciate everything you do for us. 🧡 I have interesting conversations with my gf about risk all the time. She seems to think of risk a bit differently than me, but a lot of it stems from the fact that she doesn't trust any one thing or system (including Bitcoin but also tradfi). For her, diversification is the only way to mitigate risk. Whereas I am the opposite, with 100% in $MSTR. 😂😂 Maybe the most fascinating part is that a LOT of people (gf included) have trouble assessing the RELATIVE nature of risk, which I suppose is understandable given that the human brain is terrible about assessing probabilities. But it drives them toward some bizarre decisions when allocating capital. PS: I agree about the FDIC thing. In my mind, there's no material difference between FDIC insured and money market for the very reason you stated. 🍻
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Jeff Walton
Jeff Walton@PunterJeff·
Everything is Risk. Just because something is FDIC insured, doesn’t mean it’s not risky. You just pay for the risk premiums through inflation spread across the population. If FDIC insurance were to kick in, the money printer is turned on. Risk is omnipresent
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Mocha
Mocha@monster_models·
@hillery_dan Sharp observation, one I'm not surprised you made given your early focus on understanding the preferred stocks. 🍻
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Dan Hillery
Dan Hillery@hillery_dan·
Notice how all the goons are coming out of the woodworks saying that STRC is fictitious yield, when they were completely silent for STRK and STRF. The mechanism is exactly the same, however, the prinicipal is stable in the short term.
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Mocha@monster_models·
@DissolveDC @hillery_dan 💯This. I haven't seen very many people contemplate the ramifications of this, even in our community (let alone tradfi).
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Mocha
Mocha@monster_models·
@AlexesNakamoto Omg lol. What is wrong with people? Thanks for catching me up! 🧡🍻
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Alex 👽
Alex 👽@AlexesNakamoto·
I found one.
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Mocha
Mocha@monster_models·
100%! 1. There's no urgent need to have used the $MSTR ATM at this time. 2. Saylor will not pass up the opportunity to send a message to the market, and particularly to the short-sellers, that the game has changed. The only way I can see them having used the common ATM is if they wanted to raise a little bit of extra marginal cash for the USD Reserve. But my theory is that they are waiting for Bitcoin to wake up more fully so they can do that at higher NAV premium levels, which will also conveniently de-lever the balance sheet.
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BTC Optioneer
BTC Optioneer@BTCoptioneer·
@wallstreetbets Yea the most hated Bitcoin rally of all time is about to start any day now.
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WallStreetBets@wallstreetbets·
Something’s starting to feel… different.
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Ryan Morse
Ryan Morse@RyanMorseWx·
Incredible video of the hail in Sweetser, Indiana from Tuesday evening. This comes courtesy of Alexandra Poor. Golf ball sized hail like this can easily damage roofs and cars. @wrtv
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Mocha@monster_models·
@TheDemocrats Punishing success isn't the solution you seem to think it is. Instead, you should work to fix the money. #Bitcoin This is coming from a former lifetime liberal Democrat who left your party. 🧡
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Democrats
Democrats@TheDemocrats·
TAX THE RICH
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Mocha@monster_models·
@TNorth Lol, is that Adam Back? Love the go karts hauling wagons of cash. And the power plants looking in the background. 🧡
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True North
True North@TNorth·
New Episode Tonight: 📷 10pm EST / 7pm PST True North Episode 63 -Calling The Shot Agenda:  1. Does STRC Have a Speed Limit?  2. Large Capital Flows 3. Capital Market Landscape Have questions you want covered in the livestream? Ask them here: tnorth.com/ask/
True North tweet media
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AngryBuhda
AngryBuhda@AngryBuhda·
Can anybody actually articulate and quantify their contrary thesis on $MSTR and $STRC? I'm 0 for 3 in finding my X nemesis... Never responded much to the hallucinations I'm seeing present as fact. But damn y'all are quick with the block button when I engage with any semblance of rational debate. Will the chosen one step forward? I promise I'll match your energy in good faith.
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Mocha@monster_models·
We've all heard that hedge funds and short-sellers run massive FUDbot campaigns on X against @Strategy, $MSTR, and $STRC. Those short-sellers are like banks -- they have no ideological (or even intellectual) dog in this fight. The bulls, on the other hand, have an almost religious zeal. And it's not just because most of them truly believe in the need for globally sound money and sound capital. In many cases, the bulls' bullishness flows from a rational, numerical, fact-based clarity about the company and the robustness of its digital credit business model. Put more simply, the bulls generally are much harder to sway because they've built their outlook on a durable foundation, one that embodies the soundness of #Bitcoin itself -- truth. I'm seeing evidence that the FUDbots' effectiveness may be waning. This could be partially because the community is becoming more educated, which seems to be causing the bots to formulate arguments that appeal more through tone rather than substance. I've also observed that even the (human) bears seem to be getting tired, or making weak arguments, or both. I think this speaks to the regime shift we've undergone -- that is, the facts on the ground have changed materially in Strategy's favor. At some point, a significant cohort of short-sellers will decide that it's more likely for them to make money by going long than by staying short. That's when the game changes.
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv

The bears are running out of ammo. They have no rational arguments left. Now the narrative will be "STRC is scaling too fast and MSTR shareholders have to pay for it". They will do everything they can to ignore the fact that Bitcoin is going up forever. All of their arguments must happen in a vacuum, over a short time period where Bitcoin is trading flat. 35% amplification ratio on the balance sheet? Wanna know what happens to MSTR when Bitcoin goes to $200k with that number? Debate over.

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Mocha@monster_models·
@AdamBLiv @Strategy I very much look forward to seeing broken brains littering Wall Street. Honored to be in the fight alongside you, sir! 🫡
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Adam Livingston
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv·
@monster_models @Strategy We will see a run-up above NAV again in BTC mania and the retail idiots will come in and capitulate to the short seller nonsense. The people in the trade now get it but we'll see a lot more brains breaking in the future.
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Mocha@monster_models·
The bears and the short-sellers have been in an alliance of convenience. The short-sellers are just doing what they think will make them money in the short term. The bears, however -- whether through ignorance, confusion, low IQ, close-minded stubbornness, or ideological fervor -- truly believe that @Strategy's products like $STRC will struggle to gain traction, or that they contain some underappreciated, hidden defect that will detonate spectacularly in the future. But the two groups now find themselves in something akin to the prisoner's dilemma. If they cooperate and continue to short together, then they might be able to keep $MSTR's share price depressed. But if one of them defects, the defector stands to benefit more than if they continued to cooperate. In game theory, there is a concept called Nash equilibrium. It is when no player can benefit from changing their own strategy, provided that the other players leave their respective strategies unchanged. Put another way: it is when each player's strategy is optimal given the expectation that other players maintain the status quo. The situation happening between the bears and the short-sellers is not a Nash equilibrium. It is unstable. The bears believe they are right; some of them feel so threatened by the prospect of being humbled that they double- and triple-down, building entire identities around their position. By contrast, the short-sellers are situationally aware and see only short-term opportunities and their probabilities. This market is a tinderbox. Once the short-covering begins in earnest, it will initiate one of the most rapid transfers of wealth we've ever seen in modern financial markets.
Mocha@monster_models

We've all heard that hedge funds and short-sellers run massive FUDbot campaigns on X against @Strategy, $MSTR, and $STRC. Those short-sellers are like banks -- they have no ideological (or even intellectual) dog in this fight. The bulls, on the other hand, have an almost religious zeal. And it's not just because most of them truly believe in the need for globally sound money and sound capital. In many cases, the bulls' bullishness flows from a rational, numerical, fact-based clarity about the company and the robustness of its digital credit business model. Put more simply, the bulls generally are much harder to sway because they've built their outlook on a durable foundation, one that embodies the soundness of #Bitcoin itself -- truth. I'm seeing evidence that the FUDbots' effectiveness may be waning. This could be partially because the community is becoming more educated, which seems to be causing the bots to formulate arguments that appeal more through tone rather than substance. I've also observed that even the (human) bears seem to be getting tired, or making weak arguments, or both. I think this speaks to the regime shift we've undergone -- that is, the facts on the ground have changed materially in Strategy's favor. At some point, a significant cohort of short-sellers will decide that it's more likely for them to make money by going long than by staying short. That's when the game changes.

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