Paul Martin

Last year, OKI (the Japanese co), launched 124-layer PCBs with blind and buried vias. Primarily designed for wafer inspection equipment designed for high bandwidth memory for GPUs. The design, manufacturing and complexity of this thing is insane. I always have had a lot of respect for folks that knew how to do 30+ layer PCBs for complex motherboards, and this is next level. I think the most I've designed is 10 layers, which is already pretty complex depending on the area:

Pour le coup, c’est totalement normal que les restaurateurs répercutent les charges sur le consommateur. Les charges sociales sont comme un droit de douane sur les échanges entre individus. Si vous cuisinez vous-même, votre travail domestique n’est pas taxé. Si vous travaillez une heure de plus pour vous offrir un restaurant, cet échange est taxé deux fois : d’abord votre travail, puis celui du restaurateur. Dans ce contexte, il est logique que les Français, plutôt que de se spécialiser sur leur cœur de métier, deviennent leurs propres bricoleurs, jardiniers et cuisiniers. Les charges encouragent une économie d’autarcie à l’échelle de chaque famille. Pour que l’échange marchand se justifie, il faut que l’écart de productivité entre individus dans leurs professions respectives soient suffisant pour couvrir le désavantage fiscal de la spécialisation. Sur la cuisson d’une cuisse de poulet, c’est loin d’être évident. C’est pourquoi beaucoup de ces services se retrouvent défiscalisés ou subventionnés : sinon, ils ne pourraient pas survivre.

When the late, great Arthur Jones sold Nautilus (original inventor of bodybuilding machines) he created MedX. MedX made some of the most ridiculous, yet “effective” equipment of all time. This is one of those machines, the Cervical Rotation Machine.

They're right for Japan, Korea, and Singapore. Those guys source 75% of refined products from the Persian Gulf. Hormuz closes, they bleed. But Indonesia is a different story entirely. Yes, Indonesia imports refined products. Pertamina's refining capacity doesn't fully cover domestic demand, so Pertalite and Solar get bridged through imports. The Hormuz shock hits that. Real exposure. What makes Indonesia different is this. Indonesia's actual risk from this isn't supply. It's fiscal. If oil prices spike because Hormuz stays closed, the government's subsidy bill for Pertalite and Solar expands. Wider deficit, rupiah pressure. That's the bear case for Indonesia, and even that's manageable. The bull case is what nobody is talking about. Indonesia runs B40 right now. 40% of every liter of diesel consumed domestically is palm oil biodiesel, not petroleum. When oil spikes, the incentive to push toward B50 or B55 gets stronger overnight. Import volume drops. Indonesia self-hedges using its own CPO supply. No other country in Asia has this. Not Korea, not Japan, not Singapore. Then there's coal. When Hormuz disrupts LNG and oil flows into Asia, the fastest lever available to power generators in Japan, Korea, and India is gas to coal switching. Indonesia is the world's largest seaborne thermal coal exporter. ADARO, ITMG, PTBA, BUMI don't suffer from this scenario. Export volumes go up. Realized prices go up. Royalty revenue to the government goes up. Same logic on LNG. Indonesia exports from Bontang and Tangguh. When Middle Eastern supply gets disrupted, the spot premium on non Gulf LNG widens. Indonesian cargoes price up. Same logic on CPO. High oil equals strong biodiesel demand globally equals strong CPO prices. Indonesia and Malaysia control 85% of global supply. You see, Indonesia pays more for refined product imports. Fiscal subsidy pressure rises. Rupiah is a watch item. Those are real negatives. But Indonesia earns more on coal exports, earns more on LNG spot, earns more on CPO, and reduces net petroleum import volume through accelerated biodiesel blending. The terms of trade move in Indonesia's favor, not against it. The conventional take is "Indonesia is a net oil importer so oil shock is bad." The correct take is Indonesia is a net energy exporter in the commodities that directly substitute for disrupted Persian Gulf supply. A sustained Hormuz closure improves Indonesia's aggregate energy trade position, not deteriorates it. Happy Sunday and Happy Easter.