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retarded oil longer
4.8K posts
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Spent yesterday talking to HL users (cc @ositoninja1, @im_insulting, @Curiosity0x ) and walked away convinced HIP3 has a structural winner-takes-all problem that HIP4 will inherit.
Deploying against @tradexyz is pointless. Their OI + MMs kill any competing book on contact.
Ship something novel (forex, exotics) → they can clone it in 48h. The only defensible territory is niches too small to attract them, which by definition caps your upside.
HIP4 = exaclty the same, but on prediction markets.
The big verticals (sports, elections) will get camped by the largest deployer, almost certainly UNIT-linked (these guys are too good 🐐).
No reason for traders/users to route elsewhere.
The thing worth sitting with: "permissionless deployment" on a shared orderbook doesn't produce competition: it produces a monopoly per vertical, legitimized by the permissionless label.
If you're building on HIP3/HIP4, the only real question is: what vertical is too weird, too small, or too regulated for the incumbent to bother with?
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@investingidiocy At least the candlestick people didn’t post a 3 hour sharpe
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@quantyboi Now I feel bad for the candlestick people being lumped in with the LLM people
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None of these AI slop startups seem to be run by finance people, they are run by LLM people who don't understand that hedge funds don't just run pattern recognition on candlesticks, and don't appreciate the instability of distributions in financial data.
This xkcd is still true
Michael Royzen@MichaelRoyzen
We built a hedge fund where every single trade is made by AI. No human portfolio managers. No manual research. No one writing trading code. Just a reasoning model that reads the world, thinks for itself, and trades before humans can. Early results in testing: 2.55 Sharpe ratio. 2.79 Sortino ratio. Market neutral. $50M+ capacity. Here's how we got here 🧵
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@mlesterWS @LukeGromen @Aegis007X Someone disagreeing with you doesn’t make them intellectually dishonest and starting a post one way doesn’t force subsequent discussion into a particular direction..
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@LukeGromen @Aegis007X You have no intellectual integrity. Nothing you said has anything to do with your original post. I mean I get engagement baiting, but come on.
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Odd thing to ask for a war that is over
🤔
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
PENTAGON APPROACHES AUTOMAKERS & MANUFACTURERS TO RAMP UP WEAPONS PRODUCTION - WSJ
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@loraclexyz Aren’t what those people are looking for typically weird outliers so featurizing it isn’t really the right way to analyze
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Hard lesson I learned building graphing terminal. Most of the alpha of the predictive features decay after 10s, this means there is really no point in plotting things on a graph, price prediction is a computing game not a visualization game
Loris@0xLoris
one thing I see a lot is people trying to increase the fanciness of their charts to make money - liquidity heatmaps - “advanced” line drawing tools - consolidated orderbook depth - liquidation heatmaps - 3d order book visualizations it’s all very interesting. it looks cool. it will make you feel smart it will not help you become a profitable trader.
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@_OH_71 just like i wouldn't really listen to a guy who only trades crypto's take on stocks when he has no position, I wouldn't trade equity direction based on a vol guy's random takes. I'd take his vol trades
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@swansonbenson0 what if no money because you blew up by being a moron
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U basically need enough hyperliquid to make it if it goes 2.37x, otherwise if you are asian you should spend all your time becoming semi adjacent to whoever randomly pumps shite like RAVE 1000x if white try to get into one of those hayden davis scam type crews thats basically it
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@XavierORourke @sriramk dario and sam's organizations are full of retards getting paid to larp your yud-adjacent discourse has plagued the internet for the last decade for training data especially given the propensity for massive sci-fi word-salads
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@quantyboi @sriramk Please copy paste this thread into your ai chat app and ask your assistant what "hypotheticals" are
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I think the doomers need to take a serious look at what they have helped incite and not just rely on “we condemn this and have said this is not the rational response”.
This is the logical outcome of “If we build it everyone dies”.
Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@DrewPavlou
I get that Yudkowsky formally condemns the attack on Sam Altman's home and that his book formally condemns acts of vigilantism. But I also think that if you were to take seriously the central thesis of his book - that AI execs are essentially working to bring about the extinction of humanity - it's not exactly a short leap to go from accepting that thesis to then acting out extra-legal violence
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@XavierORourke @sriramk There is no evidence, that’s the thing.
Zy@ZyMazza
Here’s a serious question for the AI doomers: do you have exit criteria? Is there a predetermined stage of development or capabilities where, having not destroyed humanity, you’re willing to say it was a false alarm? Or is it an eschatological religious belief and unfalsifiable?
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@quantyboi @sriramk If no evidence would change your mind about AI, let's make the hypothetical about some other tech instead (idk something like mirror life maybe)
If it was being rapidly developed and you thought there was high chance it causes calamity, what would you say/do?
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@XavierORourke @sriramk Stop pretending any of this is evidence based. It’s eschatological
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@sriramk If hypothetically some evidence came to light that convinced you there was a high chance of an AI catastrophe - what would you say and do?
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I literally had to go see this for myself. Sure enough. Apple Maps has removed almost every town in Lebanon from the map while keeping every podunk town in Israel and Syria clearly marked.
Ethan Levins 🇺🇸@EthanLevins2
Apple has removed Lebanese village names in Southern Lebanon. As Israel invades, they are already setting the state to justify occupation. I’ve never seen something like this.
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@jbraunstein914 @perrymetzger Your ilks mentally ill delusions have already caused irreparable damage to humanity and caused the deaths of millions. I’m not joking or exaggerating.
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I’m not denying human beings can be irrational, or that in a large enough audience there’s a statistical certainty of mental illness that causes delusions, manic impulses etc.
I’m objecting to the insinuation that AI safety advocates are intentionally trying to “activate” those people, are morally responsible for their crimes, or have any interest whatsoever in encouraging that behavior.
The implication of moral responsibility would be that sincere assessments of the state of the world could be construed as accessory to crime.
Extremely chilling of free expression and freedom of conscience.
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You tell people often enough that AI researchers and executives are evil and their work will kill everyone they love, and eventually, some of them will listen. Any intelligent person could have predicted that.
“paula”@paularambles
i didn’t realize how bad it was until i saw this comment section on instagram
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@BioavailableNd but does it stabilize quickly after switching?
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@swansonbenson0 You don’t understand, all those liquidations are going to make me millions ok
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@swansonbenson0 Few know this but you can’t get exploited if you have a jeff level IQ.
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@qthomp @Rory_Johnston @TheShortBear We all got liquidated longing oil and are retired from trading. Hope this helps.
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I don't understand why this is not being talked about more. The Strait is still not open. It's almost as if investors are just tired and fatigued from the whole war/Trump charade that they are back to being bullish despite nothing actually changing.
@Rory_Johnston @TheShortBear
Quinn Thompson@qthomp
So tomorrow Europe gets its last shipment of oil from the Strait of Hormuz. Based on that timing, if the Strait were to open tomorrow Europe's next oil shipment would come at the end of May. Reports are circulating that countries are beginning to ration fuel. So what's next?
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