Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا
Timothy Monahan
39.5K posts

Timothy Monahan
@rphtim
Pharmacist/Pharmacy owner
huntingdon valley pa شامل ہوئے Şubat 2011
7.2K فالونگ1.6K فالوورز
Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا

In making sense of a complex event, it's often best to start with the facts and then work backwards from there. So what are we to make of this weekend in Iran?
My theory is we just saw an attempt to seize Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium unravel.
Down the rabbit hole.⬇️
Let's run through the timeline and the location of key events first:
The evening of April 2nd, the Iranian military released a video of them shooting down a USAF aircraft. This was initially claimed as having occurred over the Persian Gulf, but apparently occurred near Isfahan. Wreckage corresponding to an F-15E of the 494th Tactical Fighter Squadron was recovered from a site south of Isfahan the morning of April 3rd, although geolocation of the very barren crash site took some time (fig. 1).
The afternoon of April 3rd, a number of USAF HH-60s and an HC-130 fueler (!) were spotted operating further south and west in Iran, over Kogiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, as well as at least one A-10, an MQ-9 Reaper, and apparently an F-35. An antiaircraft battle developed and the Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) HH-60s (fig.2) and an A-10 were damaged, with the A-10's pilot ejecting over the Persian Gulf. The HH-60s were reported as "damaged" and one was photographed trailing smoke. Reports emerged at that time that the pilot of the F-15E (which had crashed near Isfahan, although this was then-unclear!) had been rescued, while the WSO remained at large. Provincial authorities in Kohgiluyeh asked civilians to be on the lookout for an American aviator around this time and numerous photos of militia searching for him emerged.
The next day passed relatively uneventfully. The evening of April 4th, however, there was a report of more helicopter activity slightly further north, in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, accompanied by a washed-out photograph of an unknown helicopter flying very low on a very dark night (fig. 3). Later that night news emerged that the F-15Es WSO had been rescued... and that C-130s had been abandoned and scuttled at a forward base in the Isfahan area during the withdrawal of a company-size SOF force that had landed in the area, over 100 operators ostensibly having been sent to rescue one aviator. Photographs that emerged as dawn broke showed two burned-out C-130s and several destroyed MH-6 Little Bird SOF assault helicopters, in a scene reminiscent of the aftermath of Operation Eagle Claw (fig. 4). A USAF C-295 tactical transport was caught on video around that time flying in Iran - presumably outbound - at extremely low altitude.
So, what are we to make of this?
First and foremost, the official story - that a huge direct-action SOF force landed near Isfahan with assault helicopters and heavy transport aircraft to rescue one fugitive airman - is nonsense. Not because the USAF won't go to extreme lengths to recover isolated personnel - it can, will, and did in this case - but because that's an absolutely nonsensical way to accomplish that mission. It's a totally inappropriate force package for a mission to go in, extract a single person from a remote area, and leave. Ergo this SOF task force was there on other business.
So how were the pilots actually recovered? In all likelihood, exactly the way you would expect them to be recovered - by USAF PJs in long-range helicopters, under cover of darkness. The rescue force probably recovered the pilot from the Isfahan area late at night on April 2-3 and were caught in daylight as they exfiltrated, leading to the aforementioned antiaircraft battle the morning of April 3rd and a high-risk refueling over Iranian territory that was filmed by many Iranians on the ground, as well as a shot-down A-10 trying to clear a path for the helicopters to exfiltrate. The WSO was likely recovered from his hide site near Isfahan by HH-60 in a quiet and deliberate operation the night of April 4-5. One or two birds, in and out under cover of darkness - a far cry from the gung-ho stories currently being spun.
So what about the SOF rodeo happening at the same time? Well, why was an F-15 flying downtown to Isfahan the evening of April 2nd to begin with? Probably because there was a huge direct-action raid planned in the Isfahan area for the night of April 4-5, likely going after enriched uranium at an underground facility in the region, and the Iranian air defenses around Isfahan weren't going to suppress themselves. The plan was likely to fly several MH-6 assault birds and a sizable force of operators via C-130 and C-295 to a forward staging area near Isfahan the evening of April 4th, hit a reported cache site or sites for enriched uranium, and try to make it out with the magic dust by daybreak on April 5th.
In any event the USAF wasn't going to send transports somewhere it wouldn't send strike aircraft. So the Air Force cashed its check on claims of air superiority and in went the strike package the evening of April 2nd - and lo and behold one of the F-15Es went down because reports of the demise of the Iranian air defense network had been greatly exaggerated. Any rational planner would have scrubbed the SOF operation at this point because they'd lost control of the situation and the Iranian defenses had proven more effective than planned.
We went ahead anyways and inserted the SOF task force the evening of April 4th. I strongly suspect that this force was immediately discovered by Iranian drones that would have been up and searching for this WSO, because five transport aircraft including at least two C-130s (about what would be required for a bunch of Little Birds and a company-sized element of operators with equipment) landing at a desert airstrip 50km from Isfahan (and in the same general area where the WSO was taking cover) would be pretty God-damn obvious to anything with thermals. Iranian troops immediately deployed and began converging, the task force probably took indirect fire, and the operational commander immediately aborted mission and retreated in the three remaining operational aircraft. Scuttling charges on delayed fuzes burned two C-130s and an unknown number of MH-6s that had been abandoned at the airstrip around dawn.
The story that they were there to rescue the WSO was concocted at that time to cover the disastrously failed raid, as were logistically implausible claims that the task force had been rescued by three additional aircraft after the two C-130s got stuck on the LZ and were scuttled - perhaps to minimize the scale of the effort. Claims that a large battle took place appear to be similarly exaggerated - video has emerged of a single group of Iranian militia apparently killed in a drone strike, but nothing of the nonstop bombing and firefights that were rumored across Telegram all night. I remind the reader that the events of the last few days have proven quite conclusively that Iranians seem to have plenty of internet access to post photos and video when they actually have something worthwhile to film.
I'd like to note that Hegseth fired General George - US Army Chief of Staff - on April 2nd, apparently because he just wasn't a good fit for the job and definitely not because he'd told him that this whole scheme was insane. It seems to me that the good General's advice should have perhaps been heeded.




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Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا

As an investor in @citrini, I want to call out his excellent analysis on the Iran conflict.
Currently, Iran is charging a toll for ships to pass through the strait.
Citrini bets that this will be the long-run state of the strait. The only way in which this can fail is if the US pursues total annihilation, which seems unlikely at this point.

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Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا

@defense_civil25 LMK when the US Navy returns to the SoH and Persian Gulf. We used to send in aircraft carrier battle groups.
Now every USN warship has fled. Iran remains in control of the SoH until they decide otherwise, even if we flatten Tehran.

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Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا
Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا
Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا

Pay attention to this America, this is a warning
“Islam is taking over Europe faster than you think
- France is already nearly 10% Muslim
- Sweden, over 8%
- Germany and UK around 7% and integration is going absolutely fantastic (sarcasm)
- In the uk, only 51% of working-age Muslims have a job across France, Germany, and Sweden
- Unemployment and welfare rates are triple the native average
- Over 50% of young Muslims in Europe say they want Sharia over local law
Crime is a real treat too.
- Sexual assaults in Sweden up over 1000% since the 1970s
- In Germany, just 7% of the population accounts for nearly 40% of Sexual assaults
Now add the birth gap
- Native European women average 1.6 kids, Muslim immigrants, 2.6
- By 2050, Sweden could hit 30% Muslim
- France and the UK mere 18%
- and those numbers explode by 2100
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Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا
Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا

Abbott proclaims here “Texas will be a land for the Indian community”. The invasion went from him lighting Diwali candles in the governor’s mansion to the now open pagan ritual burnings in public spaces. Oh how Texas has fallen. All it took was a little flaming monkey sht. A righteous cleansing of our land is way overdue.
@info_maiden @CyberGreen09 @GeppettoFred @Amiejokes2much @TRICHFUN
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Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا
Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا

🤔 Relevant Data Points and My Thoughts
Data Points:
🔹 The alleged "F-15E" crash site has been geolocated to a site not far from Isfahan and the Natanz nuclear site.
🔹 The HC-130J can carry TWO MH-6 "Little Bird" helicopters + ~10 troops.
🔹 The HC-130J can carry ONE MH-6 and ~60 troops.
🔹 Absent any MH-6 helicopters, the HC-130J can carry ~90 troops or ~64 paratroopers (as in soldiers fully loaded to jump out of them).
🔹 HC-130Js have no purpose in the context of a CSAR mission to rescue a single pilot.
My Thoughts:
🔹 A pilot rescue is clearly not the whole story.
🔹 The proximity of the action to Isfahan and Natanz lends credence to the theory that the REAL object of this mission was to seize nuclear materials (as absurd as that mission would have been!).
🔹 It is probable that MORE than TWO HC-130Js were involved.
🔹 The bare-dirt agricultural airstrip was undoubtedly known and mapped as an emergency ditching site, but was NOT envisioned as an operational drop zone.
🔹 The foolhardy mission flew into an Iranian ambush, and TWO of the HC-130Js were hit, and forced to use the agricultural airstrip as an emergency ditching site, where they crash-landed hard with their full loads, and were disabled.
🔹 The Iranians attempted to rush troops and firepower to the remote site in order to encircle the stranded aircraft and troops (according to the IRGC spokesman).
🔹 The US managed to rush 3 Airbus C-295s to the site to evacuate the stranded aircrew and troops.
🔹 As the IRGC spokesman himself claimed in his report from earlier today, the US used jet aircraft to bomb to smithereens the stranded HC-130Js and the off-loaded MH-6 helicopters.
🔹 After absorbing the shocking results of the failed mission, the US triumphantly claimed the pilot was rescued, the operation was a brilliant success, and the US has the greatest military in human history.
Anyway, these are my thoughts for now. I reserve the right to amend them as more information becomes available.
Samir@obretix
USAF F-15E crash site geolocated ~25km south of Isfahan google.com/maps?ll=32.381…
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@AlmondsD602 @DrRemilio @cirnosad I told many polish jokes in the 70s and my grandmother was 100% polish.
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@DrRemilio @cirnosad i remember in the 1970s "pollack" jokes were all the rage. and on All in the Family the character "meathead" was polish (played by a jew rob reiner).
i'm starting to see why Polish people were so demonized and by whom; Polish people don't fall for jewish tricks.
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Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا
Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا
Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا
Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 BIG | Israeli Channel 12: New details have emerged about the rescue of the American F‑15E navigator shot down over Iran.
The officer was unconscious with a concussion and did not transmit a distress signal initially.
He made first contact at 12:00 on Friday, climbed to the highest point to avoid detection, walked 10‑12 kilometres and hid in a crevice, from where he sent precise coordinates on Friday night.
Israel refrained from striking in the area and provided intelligence.
During Friday and Saturday, Israel was asked to assist with air superiority and struck relevant targets.
U.S. forces seized a farm 18 kilometres from his hideout, landing two aircraft and small helicopters.
The helicopters extracted him from the crevice and returned him to the farm.
During takeoff, two C‑130s became stuck in sand; three smaller planes were called to evacuate the navigator and special forces.
Fighter jets then bombed the two stranded aircraft to prevent capture.
See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo
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Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا
Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا

This is genuinely one of the most insane things I’ve ever seen in baseball. Robbing a homerun is hard and rare enough. Robbing two in a game is the record. But three?? One in a million chance. Take a bow, Jo Addell. #RepTheHalo
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Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا
Timothy Monahan ری ٹویٹ کیا










