Caffè Satoshi

I have just created a neural network that calculates the Bitcoin price for the next 48 hours based on Blackrock's ETF inflow/outflows. Results have so far been positive, not 100% but backtested the neural net shows I could have 1.75x my Bitcoin in the past year by shorting and Longing without leverage to keep risk low. I will set aside 1 bitcoin starting tomorrow and use this neural network to try to replicate the results for the next year. I will start posting the morning prediction as soon as Blackrock IBIT releases their previous day data. Follow for more, but don't copy my trades they are just for educational purposes to see if such a neural net could help traders and fund managers identify patterns. Very excited so far.

@mikemcglone11 When $10k?!!!!! 🤣🤣🤣

How Long Can Stocks Avoid Collapsing Bitcoin? For economically and stock-market-sensitive metals like copper and silver to stop dropping from $6-a-pound and $100-an-ounce thresholds, the Nasdaq-100 50-day moving average likely needs to avoid following Bitcoin's. My graphic highlights the close trend connection between the stock index and collapsing crypto. Will it be different now? Full report on the Bloomberg here: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/t… {BI COMD} #Bitcoin #copper #silver #stockmarket @markets

It's definetely NOT OVER - This post only shows one data point to farm engagement! do not be impressed by this. The Full Truth: Blackrock's IBIT data is included in the chart. We had a very positive March which completely wiped out February's outflows. At the Moment Blackrock's IBIT is holding 63.301 BILLION Dollars (Yes billion not millions) worth of Bitcoin. I call that BULLISH Remember Half truths posted on X are practically Fake News. Only believe the DATA. Speaking of Data, you can follow my Neural Network being built and run, completely for free and open source on my X feed, take a look at this post: x.com/CaffeSatoshi/s…

Good bye Fake News 🤷spreaders. Your place is no longer on X. I wrote about this many times👇 x.com/CaffeSatoshi/s…

How long before we see an Elon Musk video eating a Tesla Diner burger?

BLACKROCK SOLD $37.7M IN BITCOIN. IT'S SO OVER

The last data shows both Blackrock's IBIT and FBTC had massive inflows between 9 March and 17 March, in fact it was a record for this year and completely wiped the outflows experienced in February, two days of outflows for the 18th and 19th March were registered, I attribute these due to panic selling after the FED meeting decision, but we can never know exactly. The Neural Network just looks at the numbers and does not analyse the news for now, although I am trying to include some sentiment into it as well later. It analyses the following factors for now : IBIT,FBTC,Previous Bitcoin Closing Price,Vix Reading,DXY,Gold,SP500. We cannot know how the neural net is interpreting the data, it might be seeing some lag in the outflow / inflow to affect the price. We don't know, but what we know is the Neural net is learning from it's mistakes and the R squared is going down, it's far from perfect, but it's improving

@CaffeSatoshi LSTM says +3% while ETFs keep bleeding out. love it when the model is bullish and the money disagrees

🧠 NEURAL NETWORK BTC Closing Price Prediction for Friday, March 20, 2026 LSTM model updated with confirmed March 19 data. Here is the call for today. Predicted close: $72,062 Previous close (Mar 19): $69,935 Implied move: +$2,127 / +3.04% March 19 saw continued ETF outflows but at a notably lighter pace than the day before. Blackrock's IBIT recorded -$38.3M and Fidelity's FBTC came in at -$26.0M, bringing the net flow to -$64.3M. That is a meaningful improvement from March 18's combined -$137.7M exit, suggesting institutional selling pressure may be starting to ease. Two consecutive days of outflows is worth watching, but the shrinking magnitude is a tentatively encouraging sign for bulls. On the macro side VIX eased slightly from 25.09 to 24.06. More notable is the DXY dropping from 100.25 to 99.44, a weakening dollar has historically been supportive for BTC. Gold and the S&P500 both came in softer, which muddies the picture, but the model is prioritising the dollar weakness and reduced ETF outflows and is calling a modest bounce for Friday. Model stats on this run: MAPE 2.23%, MAE $1,552, R² 0.40 on the test set. R² of 0.40 means the model explains about 40% of the variance in unseen price moves. That is respectable for a one-day-ahead crypto forecast but it also means 60% of the movement is noise the model cannot capture. Factor that in before reading too hard into the direction. What is your call for Friday? 👇 ₿ 📊 🔮 ⚠ Disclaimer: this content is for educational and research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. AI model outputs are probabilistic estimates, not guarantees. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

🧠 NEURAL NETWORK ANALYSIS This is what the new LSTM model looks like under the hood. 88 daily observations, Nov 2025 to Mar 2026, actual close price in blue vs model predictions in gold. The good news first. The model nailed the macro trend. It tracked the entire descent from the $124K peak all the way down to current levels around $70K, which is genuinely the hardest part. Getting the direction and magnitude of a multi-month move right matters far more than any single day for me. Where it struggles is the sharp daily reversals. The red shading in the test zone shows where predicted and actual diverge most, and it widens at the more volatile moments. That is not a flaw, it is a fundamental feature of how LSTMs work. The network learns the underlying drift and smooths the noise, so it will rarely nail an exact day but tends to be in the right neighbourhood. Key model stats on this run: R² 0.40, MAPE 2.23%, MAE $1,552 on the test set. R² of 0.40 means the model is explaining 40% of the variance in unseen price moves. For a one-day-ahead crypto forecast with 88 observations that is a solid baseline, and it will improve as we feed it more daily data and introduce additional features. We are actively working on improvements. More data, attention layers, ensemble methods. Watch this space. ₿ 📊 🔬 ⚠ Disclaimer: this content is for educational and research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. AI model outputs are probabilistic estimates, not guarantees. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

All these influencers don't care about what they produce or post as long as it generates engagement and they get paid for it. Just look at this guy having a continous online tantrum @TheBTCTherapist because he was finally removed from X payments shows exactly what I have been talking all along.

@JonatanRLZ "Senior Market Analyst" 😂

@CaffeSatoshi Bitcoin is in a down trend. Its in a bear market. Trends tend to last.

They are trying to make you think Bitcoin is about to crash. Look at this influencer with more than a Million followers! I need you to really look this time. Not scroll. LOOK. 3 hours ago, the largest Bitcoin influencers on this platform began posting the same message. Not the same idea. The same Words. "Simulation." "2022." "Macro uncertainty." "Don't be greedy." "$30k retest." Comparing the start of the Iran war to the Russia-Ukraine war dates. Word for word. Chart for chart. Emoji for emoji. So far 10 accounts with millions of collective followers published variations of the exact same narrative. You know what that is? That's an operation. That's someone pressing a button and watching the puppets dance. Someone has a Telegram group you'll never see. Someone has a spreadsheet with columns for "post time," "engagement rate," and "payment status." You think they're waking up simultaneously with the same revelation? You think the universe aligned to make these crypto influencers bearish at the exact same minute? No. They're reading from a script. They're hitting send on command. They're collecting checks while you collect doubt. And here's what haunts me: They know you'll see this post. They know you'll suspect. They've already planned for it. There's probably a line item in someone's budget for "reputation management" when people like me start connecting dots. There's probably a contingency post already drafted: "Ignore the conspiracy theorists. We all just independently arrived at the same conclusion because the chart is obvious." See how that works? They get caught, and they gaslight you about catching them. You want to know why they're doing it? Look at the order books. Look at the walls. Look at who's been accumulating quietly while you've been doomscrolling. Someone is building a position so large they needed to manufacture fear to fill it. Someone needs your coins more than they need your trust. Someone is willing to burn years of credibility for one more chance to buy cheap. And the influencers? They're disposable. The people paying them don't care if these accounts rot. There will be new accounts. New faces. New "just asking questions" personalities next cycle. The influencers are selling their souls for a bag that will be worthless compared to what you're holding if you just wait. That's the darkest part. The influencers think they're smart. They think they're using the system. They think taking money to dump on retail is just "playing the game." But the people above them? The people writing the scripts and timing the drops and funding the operations? They view the influencers the same way the influencers view you. The influencers will be discarded too. Once their credibility is spent. Once their followers realize they're compromised. Once the archives pile up and the patterns become undeniable. They're burning their entire future for a paycheck today. And you? You're just supposed to sell your Bitcoin because a stranger on the internet told you to. Look at the timestamps. Look at the word choice. Look at WHO benefits. And ask yourself why the fear is so loud right when hope should be strongest. They're not bearish. They're bought. And the only way to win is to refuse to participate in your own liquidation.

@intocryptoverse Nikita @nikitabier this guy has an army of bots he uses to reply to himself and fake promote + get more engagement. 👇👇👇 @intocryptoverse 1 million bought followers and engagement farms

@CaffeSatoshi I ain't reading all that. But Hi

@intocryptoverse NPC or bot army. Paid followers @nikitabier this guy with a Million followers Check it out > @intocryptoverse spreading fake news to farm engagement

I'd prefer to hear the opinion of someone with 132 followers than the opinion of someone with 400,000 followers who got there by calling for alt season the last 4 years.

@intocryptoverse @butsch_79 NPC or bot army. Paid followers @nikitabier this guy with a Million followers Check it out > @intocryptoverse spreading fake news to farm engagement

@butsch_79 i think ill just let you argue with yourself x.com/butsch_79/stat…

Simulation for Bitcoin playing out

@BaugherZach NPC or bot army. Paid followers @nikitabier this guy with a Million followers Check it out > @intocryptoverse spreading fake news to farm engagement

@CaffeSatoshi The fact that you can't give me anything resembling a good faith response to criticism tells me everything I need to know. You just embarrassed yourself with 'and you can't afford a blue checkmark'.

@OHKIBOT25 @intocryptoverse NPC or Bot army.

@CaffeSatoshi @intocryptoverse Who cares. 😭

@Cristi62037802 No but it shows your level. NPC or Bot.

@CaffeSatoshi Sure, ‘cause grammar was the main topic of your post 🤣🤣🤣🤣 tipical whatoboutism

@cryptakarid @intocryptoverse Quite strange indeed that this guy has so many bots and NPCs with no blue checkmark following him and replying to his posts. Will investigate this further!

@CaffeSatoshi @intocryptoverse This comment just confirms how stupid you are lmao

@Kneelingheathen @intocryptoverse Said the guy who can't even afford a $10 bluecheckmark. Quite strange indeed that this guy has so many bots and NPCs following him and replying to his posts. Will investigate this further!

@intocryptoverse @CaffeSatoshi I built and backrest a model to predict short squeezes with the current context, funding rates, and 27 other metrics........careful Ben.

@PartTimeChemist @intocryptoverse Quite strange indeed that this guy has so many bots and NPCs following him and replying to his posts. Will investigate this further!

@CaffeSatoshi @intocryptoverse