
Colonel Foley
110 posts

Colonel Foley
@ColonelFoley
Futures trader - CTA






Crude tanker rates have been obviously enormously strong lately, but looking forward to the next 1-2 weeks we’ll likely see a weakening ahead (assuming the SOH remains closed) An increasingly large amount of crude tankers are now heading West and are now entering the availability to be fixed for cargoes. Many of the vessels are coming for Asia, but also a lot (particularly VLCCs) are coming from OPL near Sri Lanka and anchorage throughout the Arabian sea. (seen below in the map) The demand loss in the Middle east has become much more apparent over the past week. Many owners are deciding to cut their losses and head west for available cargoes after slow steaming and/or anchoring these past few weeks. Most notably rates in West Africa and Brazil will likely feel this most and Suezmaxes and VLCCs compete for cargoes, ultimately increasing supply and options for charters, thus pushing down rates. USG markets will likely remain less impacted for VLCCs and Aframaxes as export demand remains heightened and lightering options remain very limited, but rates will likely see some pressure, especially for Suezmaxes as they lack the fundamental support in the USG compared to other segments. European markets will also feel the supply increase, but likely lessened and delayed (due to longer distance & Black Sea risk) as impacts seem more muted for now. This was bound to happen as a lot of vessel supply has been caught up in the East. But don’t get me wrong, rates will still stay strong nonetheless. Rates may dip closer to pre-war levels, especially in West Africa, but owners will still be making a killing. However it is worth to note, if the situation remains the same tanker demand to Asia will most likely increase further as floating storage is depleted and oil reserves start to become heavily reduced. The crude supply loss has been damped in Asia due to the usage of Iranian/Russian oil on the water (especially China) and with oil reserves releases in Korea and Japan. This buffer won’t last much longer and later in this month (assuming the situation persists) Id expect another uptick in demand to Asia as desperation for supply becomes very apparent in the East, driving up tanker rates again. And maybe even to new highs… #oott #tankers #iran



















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