First Principles
1.4K posts
First Principles
@Compounding365
Steve W from the @PlayingFTSEShow Part-time freelancer with @TheMotleyFoolUk Views are my own. Don't do what I say. Boring investor. Don't do what I do.
UK Tham gia Şubat 2021
80 Đang theo dõi109 Người theo dõi
@drottosears @alc2022 And Nvidia actually does something worthwhile.
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@alc2022 The bear thesis for $HIMS is that even after being down 80% from ATH, it still has a PE of 40 ($NVDA is 35 by comparison)
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$HIMS is massively shorted and there’s simply no bear thesis.
Time is running out.
This is a $200 stock today.
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I'm just as worried about the macro news as micro news for $NKE
1) Tariffs
This hurts margins pretty bad, and it will probably last two years
2) Increase in oil prices
If people are spending more on oil they are spending less on $NKE
3) Foreign relations
Foreign countries really dislike Trump, so American business are seen as less favorable (look at Chinese sales )
What do you guys think, should I sell?
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@CarsonTalkMoney If you like cyber, why not buy a cyber company? They tend to be the best at it.
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This is one of the largest reason I’m considering buying $NOW over $CRM
I’m very bullish on cyber security and $NOW just spent almost $8 billion to buy a cyber security firm!
This is unlike $CRM is issuing debt to buy back shares, which provides paper value to share holders
I like buy backs, but I don’t like how $CRM will be paying over a $1 billion a year in interest now
I also think $NOW is the superior company… they being said I’ll probably sell my $CRM to buy 30 shares of $NOW
Thoughts?
Blossom@meetblossomapp
Massive insider buy: Palo Alto Networks CEO just bought $10 million dollars worth of shares. Total shares bought: 68,000 $PANW
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@CarsonTalkMoney Meta is an interesting one. I don't know what to make of their latest legal troubles in my case. The company has always been pretty horrifying, but nobody's really been bothered. Maybe that changes some day. Maybe.
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$GRAB just gave back its entire post-announcement pump…
The company announced:
- A major Foodpanda acquisition (+12–13% GMV boost)
- A $500M buyback
The stock jumped ~10% on the news, but just erased it all!
I don't know what has worst sentiment right now $GRAB, $META or SAAS
I'm seeing a lot of good opportunities out there
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@CarsonTalkMoney @R1chardMaur1ce Totally agree. But only for proper travel, not holidays.
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@R1chardMaur1ce I 100% agree! I think travel is priceless, especially international
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The home will probably be the best investment I ever make.
People always say “don’t buy a home,” but raising your kids in a place you truly enjoy is priceless.
That’s the one thing I’m willing to splurge on financially
What's one thing your willing to splurge on?
Carson@CarsonTalkMoney
Are these realistic 10 year goals for me? 1) $1.25+ million net worth 2) Dream home on 5 acres of land 3) 2 kids with the 3rd in the works 4) Buy my dad a Jeep for his retirement gift 5) Own 1 $BTC
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This is exactly why you have to understand the cycle.
A 4.6x forward P/E on $MU doesn’t always mean it’s cheap…
It usually means earnings are near a peak.
Memory is cyclical.
Low P/E = high risk
High P/E = opportunity
Most investors learn this the hard way.
Blossom@meetblossomapp
Have you ever seen a company grow this fast and trade this cheap? Micron is projecting +219% YoY growth next quarter. Forward Multiple: 4.6x $MU
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@CarsonTalkMoney Fear is too strong a word for Salesforce right now. But you're right to note that all they've done is swap equity for debt. So their gain is only the spread between those two. I don't know what it is exactly but I don't think it's huge.
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$CRM just increased their EPS by 10+% and is only up 2%, that doesn't make much sense to me
Why would a company who bought 13% of shares outstanding not increase?
Is it because it was priced in? Or maybe the fears of a weaker balance sheet?
What do you guys think?
Evan@StockMKTNewz
SALESFORCE JUST BOUGHT BACK $25 BILLION WORTH OF STOCK Salesforce $CRM just said it went forward with the prepayment and initial delivery of ~103M shares under its previously announced $25B accelerated share repurchase "This transaction, the largest ASR in history, represents the immediate execution of half of the $50 billion aggregate Share Repurchase Program authorized by Salesforce's Board of Directors in February 2026."
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@CarsonTalkMoney Depends what they mean by owning. If they mean properly owning it -- without debt -- they're right. If they mean via some sort of loan, then it's totally doable.
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My motivation just got another spark!
I was talking with my parents today, and they said owning a rental property isn’t possible for the average 9-5 worker... That stuck with me
My parents never had the opportunity to experience financial freedom, and hearing that made me even more motivated to prove it’s possible.
They believe my goals are a fantasy, and that’s exactly why I’m determined to prove them wrong.
What's your reason for building wealth?
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@CarsonTalkMoney I think I'd go one lower at B-
Lots of positive signs but anyone worried about AI disruption will see the signs in those numbers.
I'm in the camp that says the risk is real, but also that the stock is cheap enough to think about buying since it's pricing in almost a disaster.
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It seems like you guys agree with me
I think $ADBE has great earnings, I would grade them a solid B or B+
The only think I didn’t like was their G&A and marketing expense grew rapidly
This could eat into their bottom line if they don’t keep that under control, but everything else was great
- Business professionals revenue ⬆️ 16%
- MAU grew 17% overall and 20% for acrobat and express
- Beat revenue
- Beat EPS
- 300% increase in AI reoccurring revenue
- 8.1 million shares bought back
- guiding for 11-19% EPS growth
This looks like a great quarter
What would you guys grade this quarter?
Carson@CarsonTalkMoney
Do you guys think $ADBE earnings were good or bad?
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@CarsonTalkMoney Bunzl and Diageo. But mostly stuff just wasn't down that much so it came out close to flat.
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Welp… more red today
Nasdaq ⬇️ 0.93%
S&P 500 ⬇️ 0.61%
Equal weight S&P ⬇️ 0.01%
Carson Fund ⬇️ 1.33%
Biggest winners
- $CELH ⬆️ 2.04%
- $CAKE ⬆️ 1.71%
Biggest losers
- $ADBE ⬇️ 7.58%
- $META ⬇️ 3.83%
- $CRM ⬇️ 3.24%
- $AMD ⬇️ 2.20%
- $ZETA ⬇️ 1.16%
How did you guys do today?
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@CarsonTalkMoney @RealtyStacker Monthly dividends are nice. But the company's long-term prospects aren't great - well below quite a lot of the S&P 500. And I figured I should focus on those instead of what's going to happen next month. I might well come back to it when I get closer to retirement though.
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My $O snowball is rolling!
Jan dividend -> $16.43
Feb dividend -> $16.78
March dividend -> $17.10
I see why @RealtyStacker does this! This is fun :)
How many of you guys own $O?
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@nealreclus @CarsonTalkMoney This is false. Their release says otherwise
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@CarsonTalkMoney This is exactly correct. It creates a coiled spring effect.
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@CarsonTalkMoney Debt to do share buybacks *can* make sense. Most of the time when companies do it, it doesn't (see Charter Communications as an example). But it'll be really interesting to see
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If $CRM used all $25 billion + $10 billion in FCF they will buy back nearly 20% of the shares outstanding!
This is either going to be one of the smartest plays in SAAS history, or $CRM is about to lose me a lot of money!
We’ll find out in the coming months/years
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If you get upset because a stock goes down, you are retarded
Antonio Linares@alc2022
We know hot growth stocks like to drop 50%+ for no reason, repeatedly. In just a day or two, $PLTR could drop to $70, $HIMS to $25 and $SPOT to $300, among others.
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@zaidaleem11 @EhrmantrautCap_ @alc2022 The risk of catching whatever the fuck he has is too great of a long term threat
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The price of a one hour session with me has gone up to $25,000 and it's by application only.
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@alc2022 Sorta retarded that people think 2020 growth figures are in some way relevant to the threat of AI disruption.
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Sorta retarded that people get excited about a $DUOL insider buying $500K worth of shares but not about the exponential revenue and free cash flow per share growth
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