Fully Reporting

Pending some final ballots, it looks like Democrats will win the House primaries in California by 30%, roughly 65-35. This is a larger margin than any statewide race, and represents an 10% shift from the 2024 results. Notably, this is actually better than Dems performance in 2018 primaries, when Republicans failed to contest 6 seats (versus 1 this time).

Pending some final ballots, it looks like Democrats will win the House primaries in California by 30%, roughly 65-35. This is a larger margin than any statewide race, and represents an 10% shift from the 2024 results. Notably, this is actually better than Dems performance in 2018 primaries, when Republicans failed to contest 6 seats (versus 1 this time).

Sherrod Brown has to be the most overrated electoral performer of all time 2006 literally doesn’t count for numerous reasons—not only was it pre-WWC realignment and in a D monsoon, it was 20 years ago In 2012, the guy ran against Josh Mandel, a literal clown, and only outperformed Obama by 3 due to a right wing third party candidate taking votes away from Mandel Then he ran against Jim Renacci (not sure if he’s even a real person) and underran the national environment in 2018, despite polls showing he’d win by 15-20. Ironic, as Mandel may have actually beat him had he stayed in the 2018 race. Then in 2024, he lost by 4 to Bernie Moreno, who didn’t spend a dime until September. And while I like the guy and he is a great Senator, he arguably wasn’t the strongest candidate electorally and didn’t run the strongest campaign So do people actually believe he’s the 60/40 favorite against well-funded incumbent Jon Husted? Lmao, good luck.

In 2010, the Democrat lost 63 seats in the House of Representatives. Today some estimates are that there are only 35 actual seats in the House that are genuinely competitive. We had the 2022 normal redistricting following a the Census. Now we've had a round of mid-decade redistricting that could take those districts and refine them down even more precisely with the help of new AI tools. It does not matter nearly as much in 2026 that this year might be a +5 or +8 on the Congressional Preference polling. There simply aren't the same number of districts subject to flipping in a mid-term was true in the pre-AI age of map-drawing.

2024 election if only the top 20% income earners could vote

Not a great sign that Dems can’t outvote the GOP in Nevada primaries when they literally did so in Texas earlier this year.

🚨BREAKING: New reports and speculation suggest tens of thousands of homeless residents in Los Angeles may be behind Nithya Raman’s last-minute surge past Spencer Pratt in the race for the second spot in the LA mayoral runoff. Late-counted mail ballots have pushed progressive City Councilmember Raman ahead of Pratt by roughly 3,100 votes (with ~146,000 ballots still outstanding). Much of the late surge is reportedly concentrated in areas like Skid Row, where large homeless populations reside. What do you think?

perjury, fraud, defamation, have rigorous civil and criminal penalties attached and yet we do not live in a dystopian Orwellian hellscape

How much do you want to bet that, once Raman overtakes Pratt in the official tally, the remaining ballots will stop being so lopsided in Raman support?

"Turek also leads with Independents and has more enthusiasm from his party, with 93% of Democrats saying they'll vote for him compared to 83% of Republicans for Hinson." Tale as old as time: Rs lag Ds in supporting their nominee. That won't last.

I mostly agree with this with the following caveat: It might not be legal fraud to grab 1,000 ballots, mark your favorite candidate, and have a homeless person sign it with a smiley face But it is a moral fraud because you've just disenfranchised 1000 voters who actually care about their vote, care about the results, care about their city If that is what is happening (which seems likely) then it calls into question the very nature of representative democracy. Why do we even have a vote if the vote result isn't determined by individuals but by NGOs who can harvest as many votes as they want using these strategies?