@BickerinBrattle That's why you find exposure pre-IPO and sell on the the actual offering. Buy the rumor sell the news, as ever.
Then you can round trip and an buy again when the lockup creates a cheaper price.
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Murph | Modern Macro Technician
206 posts
Murph | Modern Macro Technician
@MatthewNMurphy
Macro investing through a technical lens. Regime, Liquidity, Trend, Momentum, Reversion. Price is the final arbiter.
Boston, MA Tham gia Eylül 2009
200 Đang theo dõi141 Người theo dõi
Are you really so fucking stupid that think all the AI IPO will get funded and then all soar? In aggregate, perhaps one stays unchanged, they will drop about 70% IPO level.
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Murph | Modern Macro Technician đã retweet
"The biggest mistake is people thinking Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have the answers. They don't."
Jordi Visser (@jvisserlabs) on the AI edge nobody is using.
His method:
"Every time Jensen Huang gives an interview, I take the YouTube transcript. I drop it in a folder on my computer."
"Only thing in that folder: every Jensen Huang interview this year."
"Then I go to Claude, hit co-work, connect the folder, and ask: which names has he basically told me to buy?"
"You'll be shocked. You're getting seven-baggers all over the place."
Translation: the alpha is no longer in proprietary data. It's public. The edge is using AI to process it faster than the analysts who got paid to read it.
What other transcripts are you not putting through an LLM yet?
Michaël van de Poppe@CryptoMichNL
"They are not going to be able to raise rates." Jordi Visser (@jvisserlabs) ran capital at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers as CIO. 30 years on Wall Street. Built one of the first volatility-arbitrage frameworks for systematic hedge funds. Managed billions through three crises, never had a thesis-driven blow-up year. "Interest payments on US debt are now bigger than what we spend on defense. Over a trillion dollars a year. This is what Bitcoin was made for." We cover: — Why the Fed is mathematically trapped and how the trillion-dollar interest math forces every policy decision from here — Why "bubble talk" is intellectually lazy: PE goes UP in bubbles, not down, and right now PE is contracting while earnings grow 27% — The AI-agents-eat-tokens thesis: why agentic AI doesn't care about dollars and what that means for compute-backed assets — Why belief is harder than fundamentals: fundamentals come and go, belief systems don't, and which belief is breaking in 2026 — The Bitcoin call no other macro guy on Wall Street will make publicly: new all-time highs before year-end — Why most hedge funds will underperform Bitcoin this cycle and the structural reason it has nothing to do with crypto — The single chart that made Jordi go from skeptic to allocator and why it hasn't reversed — What the 2020-2026 monetary regime actually was, named correctly for the first time Thanks to Jordi for coming on @new_era_finance. Highlights: 00:00 - Intro 00:42 - Bitcoin Lagging 03:16 - AI Investment 07:14 - Price vs Narrative 12:15 - Market Dynamics 21:28 - AI Trading 25:24 - AI Democratizes Wealth 36:26 - Crypto Transition 39:40 - Elliott Waves 44:08 - Banana Zone 49:37 - Fundamentals vs Technicals 55:14 - Ethereum Future
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@conksresearch Fiscal dominance. Congress is so alpha.
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Murph | Modern Macro Technician đã retweet
Global surprise indices showing some pretty big divergences
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Murph | Modern Macro Technician đã retweet
BREAKING: The final draft of a U.S.-Iran agreement has reportedly been reached through Pakistani mediation and could be announced within hours, though reports have not been confirmed.
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@BickerinBrattle The market's Bunker Hill! 👀🔫🚫
x.com/MatthewNMurphy…
Murph | Modern Macro Technician@MatthewNMurphy
NSA Initial Claims remain clean as a whistle at 185k
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Initial claims. Jaw dropping in terms of how long this series is not providing any news.
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NSA Initial Claims remain clean as a whistle at 185k
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Triangulation time:
1) The market largely ignored the historically large US Crude inventory draw yesterday. h/t @tracyalloway
2) We are coming into summer seasonality that usually draws down inventories heavily after building them up in March/April (which didn't occur this year). h/t @OpenSquareCap
3) Meanwhile NATO is discussing sending troops to help Hormuz transit if it isn't opened by Early July. h/t @KobeissiLetter
There is currently another deal on the table that includes a statement of intent that allows for a 30 day nuclear renegotiation and SOH reopening, but Iran is currently balking at removing uranium from the country, leaving the situation tenuous. @SpecialSitsNews
Watch oil and commodities closely from here.
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@jam_croissant Maybe not the best, but trend following is!
As seen in this terrific Man Group paper on inflationary strategies.
man.com/insights/best-…
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STOCKS ARE NOT AN INFLATIONARY HEDGE:
Fact: 1968-1982 S&P 500 lost -40% of its value in real terms.
GIF
Lisa Abramowicz@lisaabramowicz1
Two takeaways from May’s BofA fund manager survey: first, equity allocations surged by a record amount on the month, and second, 40% of respondents see a second wave of inflation as the biggest tail risk. The two ideas are connected: stocks are increasingly seen as an inflation hedge
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ServiceNow $NOW has reverted higher off of extended levels a month ago, and is now picking up some short term momentum and poking above downtrends.
Not the first time this had given head fakes in the downtrend, but I think $NOW remains interesting as a software survivor in the new Ai paradigm.
The software/platform has an advantageous place in the enterprise control layer. The strong Q1 results and announcements of Ai implementation at 'Knowledge 2026' support the survivor case over the casualty case.
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I'm watching $VIX very closely for an additional risk off tell.
My slightly adjusted version of @AndrewThrasher 's Vol of Vix indicator is going to flash red after VIXpiry this week. All else equal (no breakout before hand).
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War risk and yield risk is front and center this morning. The 10y has been problematic for a few weeks already, above the 80th percentile of it's trailing 1 quarter price, but breaking to new highs is giving equities pause (as it should).
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Almost 90% of the S&P 500 has reported, and strong EPS growth has supported the move higher in stock prices.
EPS growth is running +27% y/y, and next-12-month EPS estimates have been hiked by 14%.
The one item to watch now is cost pressures and the potential hit to margins moving forward.
Multiples haven’t needed to do much lifting in this strong earnings backdrop, but it is hard to see them taking the reins if investors start worrying margins are peaking.
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Great thread from @CommodMkt, worth a read in full.
Find the bottlenecks in the Ai buildout and allocate capital there.
In this case: LLMs -> chips -> data centers -> power -> the commodities needed to build and generate each layer.
Jeffrey Currie 🆔++@CommodMkt
Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history. The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade. Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride. Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.
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Another week, another low print on NSA Initial Claims.
We probably have another month before summer seasonality tracks higher.
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remember the days when I was babbling about SP500 to 5000 in 2023? then 6000 in 2024? remember all the bunk about QT and Fed Funds and Fed is tight and and and recession!.
and now.....
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Another week, another 'rock solid' print for the mother of all labor indicators.
Happy Mother's Day!
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Found $IOVA with help from an industry pal. 👀
The company has an approved melanoma cell therapy and additional pipeline value in lung cancer applications.
The therapy takes a patient’s own immune cells, grows them, and reinfuses them to fight cancer.
May 7th earnings will give us a look the melanoma revenues, the stock is trading slightly below fair value for that potential + cash.
The stock gets most interesting if they can prove this concept in lung cancer. That effort was fast tracked by the FDA and they are expected to file a supplemental BLA later this year. There is a potential for data at the ASCO conference in June.
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Trading take: $BTDUSD has regained 80k, but faces an important test as it's about to be short term overbought and testing the falling 200d moving average.
Watch out for head fakes!
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I'd been spending some time looking at short ideas in trucking. $OKE $UPS $JBHT
I pulled the rip cord on the idea when a broad swath of freight indicators suggested that freight is early in a rebound. Here is another data point saying the same from @wbmosler
Will explore whether that makes $UPS interesting at these levels.
Warren B. Mosler@wbmosler
Deficit spending (public + private) seems to be sufficiently strong to support high levels of aggregate demand/petroleum consumption at current prices.
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