Open Square Capital retweetledi
Open Square Capital
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Open Square Capital
@OpenSquareCap
OSC is an asset management firm dedicated to a thematic value-oriented investment approach. https://t.co/Tefz59c3A6
United States Katılım Aralık 2015
316 Takip Edilen10.7K Takipçiler
Open Square Capital retweetledi
According to Barak Ravid for Axios, citing three U.S. officials, U.S. President Donald J. Trump is set to hold his second meeting in just as many weeks with his National Security Team on Tuesday. Per an Axios report on last week’s meeting, Iran’s inability/unwillingness to shift left or right on key issues within the negotiation process has ‘put military options back on the table.’
The last meeting was attended by U.S. Vice President JD Vance, White House Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe.
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BREAKING: Trump and Netanyahu just spoke for 30 minutes by phone. Netanyahu immediately entered a limited-security cabinet meeting after the call, per Ynet. White House reporters have also been called to an "unknown event" on the South Lawn.
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BREAKING: 11 US Air Force C-17A aircraft are now leaving the Middle East toward Europe. The same mass departure pattern happened a few hours before the war began on February 28 and last week, when Channel 12 reported Trump cancelled the strikes "at the last minute," on Saturday.
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BREAKING: Iran says it has prepared a "professional mechanism" to manage traffic and impose fees in the Strait of Hormuz and it will be "unveiled soon."
Details include:
1. Iran says this system is "within the framework of its national sovereignty"
2. Under the new system, vessels will be directed along a designated route
3. Iran says "only commercial vessels and parties cooperating with Iran will benefit from it"
4. There will be fees imposed for vessels who wish to transit safely
5. The Strait of Hormuz will "remain closed to the operators of Project Freedom"
Iran appears to be proceeding with their Hormuz toll system.
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For oil watchers, seasonality matters. OECD inventories started really drawing in mid-April, so it's just beginning to experience impact of SoH. Historically, March & April months=inventory builds b/c of refinery turnaround. Never happened this year. Summer will be interesting
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@KlaasVinckier Good question, some of it maybe SPR, had a steep drop off in March for oil on water, but then a really high step-up in SPR release in April that got shipped. Some of it could be data blip they're taking last day figures for month, daily it fluctuates a bit. Time will tell.
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@OpenSquareCap Why the lower decline in april vs march and may you think? Chinese shenanigans?
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Goldman's latest. The heat map is interesting (bottom left). By May, we're seeing across the board draws as void moves across the regions and from products to crude, to everything.
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Fantastic commentary. Covers nearly all the bases here and agree with it directionally. Couple this with the second demand destruction tweet as that's an important component. Murkiness of oil tracking means some of the draws you simply won't see.
Anton Likhodedov@ALikhodedov
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Great . . . make sure they check the oil/oil filter while they're at it.
OSINTdefender@sentdefender
Citing two U.S. officials, Axios is also reporting that U.S. President Donald J. Trump is mulling conducting limited strikes against Iran in an effort to coerce them to accede to nuclear talks. Per one U.S. official, “he will tune them up a bit,” while another official said “I think we all know where this is going.” Per the report, one option on the table is to strike 25% of the targets the U.S. has marked out but hasn’t hit yet.
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BREAKING: President Trump releases a statement on Iran:
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UPDATE | Iran just put its three red lines on the US memo in writing. Foreign Ministry: "strongly rejected some terms." The lines: enrichment program is non-negotiable, no way they're shipping the 400kg of enriched uranium out of the country, and they keep control of the Strait of Hormuz.
All three sit right at the center of the MOU. But these three aren't the same thing. Hormuz is operational leverage Iran loses anyway the moment they give up control. Enrichment is a structural technical capability.
The uranium is the tangible piece, the one you can put your hands on. Also worth keeping in mind: Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader, is injured and hasn't shown up in public since the attack that killed his father. CNN says US intel thinks he's still calling the shots on strategy. So Iran is negotiating with a wounded leader nobody can see.
Which is why this isn't "Iran rejects deal." It's Iran pushing for concessions on the three hardest points while Trump says sign or glow.
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NEW: Iran is exercising full operational control over the Strait of Hormuz this morning with more than 130 IRGC speedboats visible across two large formations in what appears to be a major new mining operation, per Sentinel-2 satellite imagery.
Qatar is simultaneously attempting its first LNG export through Hormuz since the war began, with the Al Kharaitiyat tanker following Iranian-designated shipping lanes en route to Pakistan. Two previous Qatari attempts in April were aborted before clearing the strait.
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If you weren't trading in 1999-2000, then you're in luck. This is what it was like. Now you can experience it.
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🚨 SAUDI, KUWAIT RESTORE U.S. MILITARY ACCESS FOR HORMUZ MISSION
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have lifted restrictions on U.S. military use of their bases and airspace, clearing the way for Washington to potentially restart operations protecting ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
The limits were imposed after Gulf states raised concerns about Iranian retaliation and questioned U.S. security guarantees following recent attacks in the region.
U.S. officials say the naval escort mission, aimed at reopening the key oil shipping route, could resume as soon as this week.
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IRAN REJECTS U.S. STRAIT OF HORMUZ DEAL AS ‘UNREALISTIC’
Senior Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran will not accept a U.S. plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless it includes reparations for war damage.
He rejected Washington’s proposed framework, saying Iran will not accept symbolic concessions and insists on “tangible benefits” in any agreement.
Rezaei added that Iran will continue its “resistance,” signaling no softening in its stance despite ongoing negotiations.
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The top 8 USA public oil producing co's have all reported 1Q26. Collectively, their USA crude oil production is down 76Kb/d QoQ. $XOM the big driver at -77Kb/d QoQ. Ex $XOM, the other 7 in aggregate = flat oil production QoQ. Those co's: $CVX $COP $OXY $EOG $BP $FANG $DVN
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