Morius

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Morius

@Morius_sol

Market Discrepancies CPI & asymmetric bets

Tham gia Kasım 2021
137 Đang theo dõi921 Người theo dõi
10Δ
10Δ@_10delta_·
Starting to think that we are currently witnessing the transition from Step 4 to Step 5 in Trump’s 7 Steps of Maximum Pressure. Step 1. US has already “Asked for the Moon” (initial pre-conflict demands) Step 2. “Whipped out the Big Button” (decapitated Iran leadership, destroyed Iran Navy,..) Step 3. “Punch Someone in the Mouth” (Infrastructure Day) Step 4. Break Bread, Make Friends -> The ceasefire is the magnanimous gesture. Trump went from “a whole civilization will die tonight” to “workable basis for negotiation” & “Golden Age of the Middle East” within a few hours. He “accepted” Iran’s 10 point plan as a starting framework after calling it “not good enough” the day before. He invited delegations to Islamabad. Markets rallied & the world exhaled. Now you sit down, you break bread, you behave generously & you make the other side believe the deal is real & imminent. Which means that the walkaway (Step 5: Leave the Bride at the Altar) hasn’t happened yet. The Islamabad talks on April 10 are the altar. Vance, Witkoff, & Kushner fly in. Pakistani mediators set the table. Iran sends a delegation (probably led by Araghchi or Ghalibaf). The optics will suggest momentum. The world will believe a deal is forming. Then, if Iran doesn’t concede to a favorable deal for the US.. Trump walks away. If Iran’s version of “reopening” amounts to escorted convoys under IRGC coordination rather than unconditional free passage, Trump can declare the ceasefire condition unmet. He goes back to Truth Social: “Iran has NOT opened the Strait. They are playing games. The deal is OFF.” Oil spikes & markets panic again. Iran, having already made concessions (accepting the ceasefire, sending a delegation, publicly engaging), is now in a worse position than before, because the world saw them come to the table & now fail. The blame now rests on Iran, they are now the “unreasonable party” that is causing an economic calamity. The external & internal pressure on Iran to concede will intensify dramatically. That’s when we get to Step 6 (Kiss & Make Up).
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Morius
Morius@Morius_sol·
The most likely scenario from here on out
10Δ@_10delta_

Starting to think that we are currently witnessing the transition from Step 4 to Step 5 in Trump’s 7 Steps of Maximum Pressure. Step 1. US has already “Asked for the Moon” (initial pre-conflict demands) Step 2. “Whipped out the Big Button” (decapitated Iran leadership, destroyed Iran Navy,..) Step 3. “Punch Someone in the Mouth” (Infrastructure Day) Step 4. Break Bread, Make Friends -> The ceasefire is the magnanimous gesture. Trump went from “a whole civilization will die tonight” to “workable basis for negotiation” & “Golden Age of the Middle East” within a few hours. He “accepted” Iran’s 10 point plan as a starting framework after calling it “not good enough” the day before. He invited delegations to Islamabad. Markets rallied & the world exhaled. Now you sit down, you break bread, you behave generously & you make the other side believe the deal is real & imminent. Which means that the walkaway (Step 5: Leave the Bride at the Altar) hasn’t happened yet. The Islamabad talks on April 10 are the altar. Vance, Witkoff, & Kushner fly in. Pakistani mediators set the table. Iran sends a delegation (probably led by Araghchi or Ghalibaf). The optics will suggest momentum. The world will believe a deal is forming. Then, if Iran doesn’t concede to a favorable deal for the US.. Trump walks away. If Iran’s version of “reopening” amounts to escorted convoys under IRGC coordination rather than unconditional free passage, Trump can declare the ceasefire condition unmet. He goes back to Truth Social: “Iran has NOT opened the Strait. They are playing games. The deal is OFF.” Oil spikes & markets panic again. Iran, having already made concessions (accepting the ceasefire, sending a delegation, publicly engaging), is now in a worse position than before, because the world saw them come to the table & now fail. The blame now rests on Iran, they are now the “unreasonable party” that is causing an economic calamity. The external & internal pressure on Iran to concede will intensify dramatically. That’s when we get to Step 6 (Kiss & Make Up).

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Morius
Morius@Morius_sol·
@_10delta_ are you bullish or bearish stocks in the near term ?
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Sandip Kamde
Sandip Kamde@SandipKamde89·
@JPN_PMO One war is not yet end and another started in Asia what's happening?
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PM's Office of Japan
[Emergency alert] North Korea has launched a suspected ballistic missile. More updates to follow.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: The two-week ceasefire plan between the Iran and the US allows Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, per CNN. A regional official said this money would be used for the reconstruction of Iran. Iran has been recently charging $2 million for a one-way voyage through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Morius
Morius@Morius_sol·
@golfdadgamer @thecitizenry_ @KobeissiLetter There is no deal in place, but there's a ceasefire. They can claim whatever and we can too, what matters is that the likelihood of a common agreement just went up. The US is not going to enrich a terrorist country, unless you REALLY think the US is completely defeated here
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: Japan’s stock market surges over +5% in its initial reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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Morius
Morius@Morius_sol·
@Saint_Pump What about space stocks given the immense catalyst coming ?
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Morius
Morius@Morius_sol·
@Saint_Pump gm Pump, in your opinion what matters most to the markets, the actual ceasefire or the intent behind it (no further major escalations)?
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Dr. Pump
Dr. Pump@Saint_Pump·
An outright rejection will send oil flying and the rest tanking. We're basically looking for a counter-proposition of any kind to keep this rally going. If they come back with unreasonable points, I'm expecting the initial pump to be faded.
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Morius
Morius@Morius_sol·
@_10delta_ I don't even see how anything he does could be bullish given the macro environment
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10Δ
10Δ@_10delta_·
Will have to start talking about Warsh & the Fed soon. Bigger catalyst for markets than Iran.
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Dr. Pump
Dr. Pump@Saint_Pump·
He says everything and it’s contrary everyday. There is no way he allows Iran to keep the strait closed and settle a few ships in yuan without giving a good fight. Pentagon is asking for $200B for the war to congress and sending 5000+ troops to the middle east. Trust the troops deployments, not his daily senile ramblings.
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testermike - e/acc
testermike - e/acc@testdumbass·
price action CLEARLY shows how retarded ct is
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Morius
Morius@Morius_sol·
@trading_axe Bro wants to share more L takes, incredible
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ً
ً@trading_axe·
Let me tell you young niggaz something, As a REAL OG of the psychological warfare TRADE GAME, An expert at MENTAL CHESS. I feel BAD seeing newgens that weren't around in 2021/2022 posting the same bullshit we ALL SAW back then, now. The same script rephrased and recasted with new faces: "The tape doesn't look healthy, there are equal lows ready to sweep for liquidity!" "It's all Saylor! When he stops, it's over!" Do you hear yourself you cocksucking motherfucker? You're MAKING UP SHIT to suit your beartard bias. When you want to LOOK for something, you'll ALWAYS find it. The Bitcoin chart is breaking out and trading UPWARDS, But you pseudo-intellectuals [just like the ones that existed in 2022ish and went extinct], Just LOVE to come up with HORSE SHIT. The market owes you NOTHING. The market is not "destined" to do ANYTHING but move up once sellers are out of fuel. How do you think a bottom forms? On good news or bad news? With everyone who wanted to sell having sold already or more sellers on charts that are down -90%? THINK. If tomorrow the FOMC price action results in another leg up on majors, Memes will likely put in enormous moves as an expression of people chasing risk. These intraday gaytraders always parrot, "React, don't predict!" No. Fuck that. How about you grow some balls and BET on it based on BULLISH INTUITION. ~ Dr. Axius.
ً@trading_axe

The world stage is setting up a face-melting rally for Bitcoin and people have yet to catch on. I can’t express any more bullishness, It feels like when BlackRock originally announced the BTC ETF in the bear market and everyone at the time was fading it. I genuinely cannot believe people are calling for 40-50K price targets as their FIRST area of interest to buy. Is it possible? Sure, anything can happen. But ask yourself, is it PROBABLE? All of this war bullshit will kill the global economy. The USA know what they’re doing, They’ve mapped out every possible line of attack that Iran may use [to pinpoint the blame on them]. And they’ll LET them do it too. Why? To “introduce” a one world digital currency [and guess what it’s been this whole time?] Yeah, Bitcoin. Soft-launched from day one to claim the throne when the timing was right. Why do you think America is invading all these countries to start with? Just fucking LOL if you think they care about the people living there. “Ohhh we’re freeing them from the Islamic regime!” - Iran “Ohhh we’re freeing them from the crazy dictator!” - Venezuela Etc. etc. You dumb retard. It’s about instilling a one world government system, Where their “own people” [the Epstein Elite] are managing everyone and everything worldwide. And they’ve caused so much conflict that “the people” require peace and stability, They’ll offer the solution. You create the problem and then give the solution. Do you understand? ~ Dr: Axius.

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John Dinvur
John Dinvur@spincyclesteve·
@SovereignIM @TellYourSonThis I get your point, but there is no more malleable mind than the normie female in thrall to the outlier Every woman has a “return to factory settings” button near her cervix that allows any man who regularly presses it to impose his worldview onto her mind
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Illimitable Man (IM)
Illimitable Man (IM)@SovereignIM·
The saddest thing an outlier can do to themselves is: Marry a normie. It’s the closest thing to killing yourself without actually killing yourself. You are signing up for the eternally unfulfilled life. You quite literally would be more fulfilled alone - no exaggeration.
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Morius
Morius@Morius_sol·
@_10delta_ this is really how he thinks isn't it
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