phoenix

2.7K posts

phoenix

phoenix

@Phoenix_FFM

Asymmetric bets, deep value, preferably uncorrelated to the major markets, mostly small cap or even smaller

Tham gia Mayıs 2022
523 Đang theo dõi403 Người theo dõi
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phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
Current allocation: 30% gold via miners and tiny bit of silver 15% long volatility via market makers $FLOW, $virt and $abca.pa 55% global diversified microcaps >30% short cash Rules of thumb so far meaning sometimes I wait to rebalance when I want to be overweight certain assets. Litigation finance didn't provide any diversification benefit. Still holding $BCHT and $BUR but it doesn't get its own fixed allocation bucket no more.
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM

Current allocation: 15% litigation finance 15% gold via miners to increase leverage to the gold price 15% long volatility via market makers $FLOW, $virt and $abca, $LUS1 55% small and microcaps 45% short cash Oil and gas stocks are dragging the portfolio down currently.

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phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
Can we appreciate that you need big balls to put on such big positions even if you know the speach ahead of time. Imagine trying to figure out how to not leave a paper trail. There is quite some sophisticated planing involved in executing something like that. Would you sleep well afterwards?
JaguarAnalytics@JaguarAnalytics

Friendly reminder. Everything is a grift. — March 23: $500M oil short 15 minutes before Trump delayed Iran strikes. — April 7: $950M oil short hours before the US-Iran ceasefire. — April 17: $760M oil short 20 minutes before Hormuz declared open.

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HFI Research
HFI Research@HFI_Research·
We are in a far worse situation than before. IRGC has demonstrated its effectiveness in the Strait of Hormuz control today. Politicians and diplomats have no control of the forces on the ground. Hardline stance is expected. Trump will now need to escalate further in order to de-escalate. Meanwhile, we keep losing 11-13 million b/d.
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phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
@infraa_ Taiwan is rich. I guess they are willing to bid much more on LNG than others to make sure the chip industry is safe.
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phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
That may all be true but today the Indian ship backed off after a few shots. There's no need to destroy ships in order to keep them off of trying to cross the strait. A captain of a civilian ship wouldn't risk it. Tanker rates are high and repairs take time. Too much risk of revenue loss.
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Gringo Investments
Gringo Investments@GringoInvesting·
@staffpro11 @HFI_Research I don't think it's that simple: x.com/GringoInvestin…
Gringo Investments@GringoInvesting

I've looked into what it would take to open the strait of Hormuz a bit. Would love feedback or additional data 🙏 Via air: Small aerial drones only do superficial damage though it may be enough to deter commercial shipping. Larger Shahed drones can do damage but are slow and easy to take out. There's a range of missiles can do damage. They have shot many at US ships and none have hit, but ships have been further away so they have more time to calibrate and can get off multiple shots. If they are close range then margin for error goes down a LOT. Via water: Ukraine has had luck with jet-ski sized drones. Iranians have had explosive laden suicide-boats. Both can be dealt with by the right naval ships. Mines are a process. If you minesweep you also need to protect the minesweepers. We just sent two destroyers through the strait. We have very good surveillance and AI to scan the images at an incredible scale. I am skeptical the strait is mined but I can't have high confidence in that POV. Putting it all together: The biggest risk seems to be from nearby missiles attacking minesweepers or attacking transiting boats. I don't think Iran could get off many shots before these are taken out but one lucky shot could disable a ship. I think this explains the push to get others to contribute (let them take the lumps). There's potential for smaller drones / rockets to hit commercial shipping and cause "superficial" damage. It's hard to say what level of risk commercial ships will take so perhaps this superficial damage is enough deterrent? @ed_fin spoke about this on podcasts recently.

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Lionheart Investing
Lionheart Investing@LionheartInves1·
Being on Substack and Twitter is like having a private army of analysts. I got an oil guy, I got a gold guy, I got a chart guy, I got a nano cap guy etc etc it's great.
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phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
$2 million per ship x 100 ships/day. - > Iran would be back on their feet in no time and stronger than ever -> 70bn/yr for Iran -> compared to egypts Suez canal which made $10 bn in good times, so it's big money however you look at it
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The Long View
The Long View@HayekAndKeynes·
Into the weekend like….
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phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
@wpursell_dev Unreasonable risks can be ring-fenced e.g. by a llc. Those who go for it are the basis of global progress and should be celebrated regularly.
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Will Pursell
Will Pursell@wpursell_dev·
@Phoenix_FFM The odds aren’t good anyway, so no use in obsessing over a success rate, lol. Risk is the name of the game.
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phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
Very true! There's vast research showing that the chances are stacked against you und the failure rates are extremely high. Gladly nobody reads research about success rates of startups. Imagine being teenage Elon and telling someone you're about to build multiple successful companies that will reshape entire industries and make you the richest person alive. How would he not be considered delusional?
Codie Sanchez@Codie_Sanchez

Harsh truth: if you’re at a startup and the founder isn’t intense and even slightly delusional… you’re not going to win.

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