Kevin O'Connor@KevinOConnor
Cooper Flagg or Kon Knueppel for Rookie of the Year? Here's how I came to my decision:
Flagg is probably going to be the best player to come out of this draft, probably by a wide margin, and probably will be in the running for an All-NBA team as soon as next season. He dropped 51 in a game, then had 45 two nights later. He led the Mavericks in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. The last rookie to do that was Michael Jordan.
And he did it under conditions that should have buried him. The Luka Doncic trade fallout was still radiating through the locker room when camp opened. Anthony Davis was in and out of the lineup, and got traded after only 20 games. Kyrie Irving didn’t play at all. By March, the Mavericks were shutting down veterans in the name of tanking for better lottery odds. Every defense Cooper saw was geared to stop him specifically, because there was nobody else on the floor a defense had to respect. Flagg averaged 21 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists despite all the chaos. There's a reason he went no. 1, and that reason was apparent all season long.
But this was an extremely difficult call. For nine-straight years as a voter, I’ve found the Rookie of the Year decision to be quite simple. Usually the gap between one and two is obvious by January. This year it’s not obvious with ballots due today.
Flagg averaged 2.5 more points, 1.4 more rebounds, and 1.1 more assists than Knueppel. But Knueppel posted a 63.3% true shooting mark to Flagg's 54.8%, which is a massive gap that counting stats don't necessarily close. Knueppel's improved efficiency is fueled by the fact 81% of his attempted baskets were assisted, compared to only 50% for Flagg.
The Mavericks asked Flagg to be their primary creator. Knueppel's job was, on paper, simpler. But "simpler" isn't the same as "smaller," and the assumption that Knueppel is some kind of stand-still shooting specialist falls apart the second you actually watch him play. Knueppel shot 42.5% on 7.9 3-point attempts, with many of his 3s coming with a defender draped all over him. He was one of the league’s best shooters as a rookie. But he also shot 47% out of pick-and-rolls and kept his turnover rate low. He set 738 on-ball screens — the most of any guard, by far; Dyson Daniels was second with 524. Kon either popped into 3s or rolled to the rim and made plays out of the short roll. Charlotte slingshotted him around screens and handoffs, sending him downhill instead of just flaring him to the arc. He set off-ball screens. He cut. He relocated. He sprinted to the corners to open driving lanes for teammates. Basically every winning basketball checkbox you can put on a wing's scouting report, he checked it. As a rookie! At age 20!
Knueppel’s most memorable moment of the year came in the head-to-head against Flagg. Mavericks-Hornets, their first time matching up, Flagg with the ball late in the game, Knueppel read the play, jumped the passing lane, stole the ball, and got fouled going the other way. He iced the game from the line for his 33rd and 34th points in the game. It's the kind of defensive play his critics swore he couldn't make.
The steal wasn't a fluke either. He's a smart help defender, knows how to funnel his man into traffic, and is active in the passing lanes. That said, Knueppel is not a perfect defender. Of the 100 players to defend the most isolations this season, Knueppel ranked 65th in points allowed per play, in the same neighborhood as Luka Doncic and Brandon Ingram. He's not a stopper, but he’s definitely not a liability either.
Flagg is a different tier entirely. He racks up chasedown blocks, can strongly contest shots on-ball, has the awareness to get in the passing lanes, and has the strength and quickness to switch across positions. Of those same 100 isolation defenders, Flagg ranked 15th — one spot behind first-team All-Defense candidate Chet Holmgren, and in the same statistical ballpark as Evan Mobley and Derrick White. That's a 50-spot gap between Flagg and Knueppel, and it shows up on tape every night and he's doing it with no defensive help around him.
And then there's the degree-of-difficulty factor. Without Kon’s diverse offensive skill-set and his elite trait as a shooter, there is no chance the Hornets would have climbed up the standings. But he was also the third or fourth, maybe even fifth, most important player on Charlotte. Definitely behind LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, probably behind Miles Bridges because of his two-way impact, and possibly even behind Moussa Diabate because of his at-rim finishing, screening, and switchability on defense. Flagg was unambiguously the best player on his team.
Flagg put up better numbers on a team built to lose. The Hornets weren't supposed to win either, and Knueppel helped them turn their season around. But Flagg carried a heavier offensive load against tougher coverages, and he was the better defender. I would not fault anyone for voting for Knueppel. I almost did it too. But Flagg’s got my vote.
