Macro Matt

The commodity rotation is still rolling: Gold ran, then energy, now agriculture. The fertilizer shock is coming for grain markets, then to a plate near you: themacroframe.com/p/the-energy-c… $WEAT $CORN $DBA

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau" - Irving Fisher, 1929 x.com/APompliano/sta…

Yes. Totally catastrophic, but the framing -- namely that this is an oil price shock -- does not capture the full scale of the economic calamity, which in reality involves the production of food, metals, clothing, rubber, plastics and semiconductors. Inflation in ALL of those sectors will slam into economies concomitantly. The results will therefore be non-linear, and we have not get apprehended what these might be.

@JaguarAnalytics Key detail: "Iran has not responded yet"

BREAKING: “Islamabad Accord” is potentially coming soon to open the Strait of Hormuz. reuters.com/world/china/ir…

If you haven't considered that this war might just be fought to its military conclusion you should start thinking about that scenario.

@blockbakery An industry that you work in, or understand well. Something you're passionate about that will allow you the time to understand it well. Edge is just understanding something more than the average person does.

@TheMacroFrame How do you find a niche with an edge?

When you’re young and building wealth, chose your bet size wisely. Don’t diversify so much that gains get watered down. Focus on a niche where you have an edge and real upside. Go bigger there. You can spread risk and play defense later in life.

@SimpleSimon3333 @TheRundownAI

@TheMacroFrame @TheRundownAI Exactly. And the AI generated content has already gotten him in trouble with the FDA.

Sam Altman predicted in 2024 that a one-person billion-dollar company "would have been unimaginable without A.I., and now it will happen." He just emailed the NYT saying he won a bet with tech CEO friends over when it would arrive, and that he "would like to meet the guy." The guy: Matthew Gallagher, 41. Spent $20K and two months building a GLP-1 weight-loss telehealth company out of his living room in LA. The stack: ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok writing code. Midjourney for images. Runway for video ads. ElevenLabs handling customer calls. Custom AI agents stitching it all together. $401M revenue in year one. On track for $1.8B this year.

@Tradermayne @chang_defi ~vibes~

@chang_defi brother based on what

Don’t fucking fade

@SuperBitcoinBro @lourenco_vs Yup, other 90% have their little bear flag charts showing the "guaranteed" 40% drop from here

@lourenco_vs Maybe 10%? "New lows are guaranteed and you are a fool to think otherwise" is the safe and popular opinion.

What % of the market participants do you reckon are considering the scenario in which 60k was the pico low? Would be quite the trap to the majority no? 🤔

@nic_carter So, let me get this straight, they built a website for hustling prescription drugs? Groundbreaking.

first vibecoded billion-dollar company?

@nic_carter @TrustlessState Framing this as a personal battle and saying you're winning is the evidence. I'm not disputing the thesis, but the sensationalism and the developer digs are why many people are pushing back. The message is getting lost in the noise. But at least it is getting heard by some.

what's your evidence that the "trolling has gotten to me"? I'm winning. Bitcoiners are spinning conspiracies because they don't want to face the fact that I am right and Bitcoin is going to have to change. some bitcoiners were even saying that I am somehow behind the Google paper like I'm a puppeteer pulling the strings. the only people melting down are the maxis.

Literally the most braindead cope Newsflash: cryptographic currencies are vulnerable to cryptographic attacks Nic investing in quantum solutions to Bitcoin is conviction in the problem, not conflict of interest Focusing on the COI is denial cope

Folks, this is a masterclass in the exact sentiment you see near bottoms. Every analyst is posting the same bear flag. The consensus is absolute. Only the perma bulls are entertaining a counter rally. The only debate is whether $Bitcoin drags everything down with it. The contrarian opportunity is staring you in the face.

Look how bitcoin rode the 50 day for a bit right after the bear flag breakdown in January Same thing happening now Only question is does BTC solo dive or is everything going down with it

@coinbureau While every analyst was telling us that we'd broken down from a bear flag. And that quantum was the nail in the coffin for crypto. The market is humbling.

🚨🚨JUST IN: BITCOIN RECLAIMS $69,000! In the past 4h, more than $100Million liquidated in crypto long and short positions.

$Gold owners are making the same mistake as $BTC holders did last year. Every jump up, retrofitting a narrative. Every analyst now saves in gold. It must be bullish because the macro environment is. Every podcast host still pushing it. The uptrend is over folks, for now we're consolidating and gold is a boomer asset meaning it trades very slowly. Get ready for boring action, then pain, before ATHs again.

Google drop a quantum bombshell on $BTC this morning. CT melting down, coupled with extraordinarily bad sentiment around Saylor, $STRC and $MSTR (it’s all going to crash and burn!!) The Bitcoin price? Up 2.2% on the day. When the worst news arrives, the price tries to break down, and it can’t. That’s where the maximum opportunity lives.

@BigCheds Poetic, right on the eve of WW3 👨‍🍳

$BTC $66666

@Wild_Randomness @Geo_papic @AndreasSteno @Wild_Randomness, the guy that thinks so highly of himself as to be his own deity, resorts to degrading someone else's bodily features through diminutives.

It was definitely a low blow… What blondie doesn’t grasp is that we are entering an air pocket now where the buybacks are coming off, we already saw multiples expand as market romanticized everything AI, now capex is going on overdrive with uncertainty on economics / ROIC picture that we wont know several years. Again, this entire bull market has been fueled by the hopes and dreams of AI. All related names are up multiples over the past few years, it’s completely logical to be cautious now that they have been repriced up and are just now no longer buying back their shares with the same ferocity.

I love how boomer strategists present the chart on free cash flows from the Mag 7 as rocket science. We learned on the first days at university that CapEx means less FCF in that year. Do these guys understand anything whatsoever about the prospects of the CapEx being undertaken? The answer is no, and that’s the really relevant question.